Running with darnoc’s idea, here’s another D1 case study. There’s a 3rd team involved, but hasn’t gotten back to me regarding specs. I think this can be informative anyway. The third team got to high with ~24%. Guess the odds of the other two (total listed odds come out to 99%).

Player had 2 preferences. Zone and Strong Conference.

Team A
C- prestige (mid to high for group, based on RPI rankings).
Neutral for zone, VG for strong conference.
954 overall APs (50.2 per cycle).
Promised start and 25 minutes.
20 HVs and CV.

Team B
B+ prestige (at the bottom of B+ group).
Good for zone, VG for strong conference (same conference as A).
258 APs (13.6 per cycle).
Promised start and 20 minutes.
20 HVs and CV.

I’ll post tonight, and I’ll update with 3rd team specs if they ever get back to me, just for informational purposes.

Team A 43
Team B 32

Team A 39
Team B 36

Team A 42
Team B 33

Math fail. Got the remainder percentages wrong, sorry guys. It should be adding up to 101%, not 99%.

And bump for anyone else who wants to play.

I think Team B is ahead 41-37 if minutes were at the same time...

TJ is the winner. Team B ended up on top of a VH-VH-H battle, odds listed 41-36-24. Recruit signed with team B.

The recruit was Joel Broadwater in Phelan. Team A is Oklahoma, team B is OK St.

AP's aren't as valuable as most people think...

Posted by Trentonjoe on 11/4/2017 11:03:00 AM (view original):
AP's aren't as valuable as most people think...

I always approximated 50 AP = 1 HV. That's using how much % an HV unlocks actions versus AP.

I think some do overvalue them quite a bit, but there are lots of ways to play, and AP distribution represents an area where players can really tailor their gameplay strategies. That’s a big reason why I posted this particular battle, it represented a good contrast. Had team B lost the recruit, you could point to the huge discrepancy in AP and say it could have greatly increased its chances, likely from 41% to ~75% if it had matched the AP allocation. But it would have taken another 35 APs per cycle to do that, which would obviously have drawn it out of other battles. All about priorities.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 11/4/2017 11:03:00 AM (view original):
AP's aren't as valuable as most people think...

Been saying this for a long, long time.

Posted by Benis on 11/4/2017 11:42:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 11/4/2017 11:03:00 AM (view original):
AP's aren't as valuable as most people think...

I always approximated 50 AP = 1 HV. That's using how much % an HV unlocks actions versus AP.

I think that's over-valuing them.

In 2.0 we had scouting trips (STs). If you were trying to recruit a kid a level above you and wanted to pull him down you needed about 10 STs to do so, plus a schollie, and you'd get considered. However, if the kid was already at your level you could get considered for 5-6 STs and a schollie, sometimes even less. The consensus was 2.5-3 STs was about the effort equivalent to 1 HV.

Using your analogy in the second sentence is a trap I think most users are falling into. They think the effort equivalent is linear, where I view APs more like STs trying to pulldown in the old version of the game. If I pulled a kid down with 15 STs and the kid dropped down to another team in my division they'd be leading on the recruit after just 2 or 3 HVs. This is how I view APs. You need them to make headway on a kid and unlock actions but I don't think their relative effort is anywhere near the equivalent of 50 APs = 1 HV. Just my two cents.

Posted by darnoc29099 on 11/4/2017 12:35:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 11/4/2017 11:42:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Trentonjoe on 11/4/2017 11:03:00 AM (view original):
AP's aren't as valuable as most people think...

I always approximated 50 AP = 1 HV. That's using how much % an HV unlocks actions versus AP.

I think that's over-valuing them.

In 2.0 we had scouting trips (STs). If you were trying to recruit a kid a level above you and wanted to pull him down you needed about 10 STs to do so, plus a schollie, and you'd get considered. However, if the kid was already at your level you could get considered for 5-6 STs and a schollie, sometimes even less. The consensus was 2.5-3 STs was about the effort equivalent to 1 HV.

Using your analogy in the second sentence is a trap I think most users are falling into. They think the effort equivalent is linear, where I view APs more like STs trying to pulldown in the old version of the game. If I pulled a kid down with 15 STs and the kid dropped down to another team in my division they'd be leading on the recruit after just 2 or 3 HVs. This is how I view APs. You need them to make headway on a kid and unlock actions but I don't think their relative effort is anywhere near the equivalent of 50 APs = 1 HV. Just my two cents.

What do you think the equivalency is? 100AP to 1 HV?

To be honest I'm not sure there's a direct equivalent. My gut tells me they're more useful to unlock actions on recruits than they are giving direct recruiting value, like my ST example in 2.0. But I'm not ballsy enough to unlock actions then stop giving APs to a kid.

But if I had to pick a number it'd be closer to 100 than 50.

One more thing. To an extent there are diminishing returns with APs. Let's assume two schools max out with 20 HVs and a CV and let's use 50 APs = 1 HV. Then 500 APs is an additional 10 HVs, or an additional 50% more HVs. An additional 500 APs is another 10 HVs, or an additional 33% more HVs.

If you want to use the premise 50 APs = 1 HVs then the difference between school 1 having 200 APs and school 2 having 800 APs on a kid is much more significant than 1200 APs and 1800 APs, respectively. Once you pile up a crap ton of APs you just aren't getting the same bang for your buck and so at some point you're probably better off using them to start unlocking other guys (like, guys with a late signing preference in case you start losing battles).

I realize we don't know the exact value of APs in recruiting and with the lottery system we all want to make sure we're giving ourselves the best chance to win battles, but in reality the signing odds of a 50-50 battle really isn't that different than 45-55.