Let's say there was a recruit with average starting values, but once-in-a-lifetime potential - green in every key category. But, he has a 10 WE. Two questions:

1. Would you go after him? (I'm leaning no but wanted to hear all viewpoints.)
2. If you had him on your team, how would you handle him? RS as a freshman? Give him mins and starts right away? Something else?

1. Yes. Starts and 20 mins/game immediately.
2. Depends on your other players and if they would be better off with a RS.

So he's green in all key categories -- right now, is he good enough in those categories to play 20 minutes a game for you without killing your team?

If I am coaching a mediocre/bad team, I go HARD after a guy like that, knowing I can give him enough playing time to possibly maximize his potential. But if he is a guy who wouldn't really play until his junior season, then I would be less likely to go after him.

Posted by grimacedance on 11/21/2017 3:04:00 PM (view original):
So he's green in all key categories -- right now, is he good enough in those categories to play 20 minutes a game for you without killing your team?

If I am coaching a mediocre/bad team, I go HARD after a guy like that, knowing I can give him enough playing time to possibly maximize his potential. But if he is a guy who wouldn't really play until his junior season, then I would be less likely to go after him.

Yeah, that's a great point - quality of your current team makes a big difference in willingness to go after him.

Let's say you give him a start and 20 mpg his freshman year. His WE probably ends up around 16-19 by the end of that season, right? At that WE, is he going to gain or lose value over the off-season?

With 10 as a starting point, it’s not likely to go up more than 4 points, even if he starts every game. In the upper teens, you can see 5-6 points, and by his senior season, once he’s up past 20, he may be good for 7, if you’re lucky. Starting at 10, he’s not likely to get much above 30 for his career, from what I’ve seen, for whatever it’s worth.

The big trouble I didn’t think about with all green and low WE is that if you zero out green categories, they really drop. So basically, to really make headway with the cores you want, you are really sacrificing numerous other attributes. Buyer beware.

ETA, even in the mid 20s, he’s still probably going to slip in the off-season overall. Probably looking at ~10 point drop his first year, a little less each season.

Posted by shoe3 on 11/21/2017 6:24:00 PM (view original):
With 10 as a starting point, it’s not likely to go up more than 4 points, even if he starts every game. In the upper teens, you can see 5-6 points, and by his senior season, once he’s up past 20, he may be good for 7, if you’re lucky. Starting at 10, he’s not likely to get much above 30 for his career, from what I’ve seen, for whatever it’s worth.

The big trouble I didn’t think about with all green and low WE is that if you zero out green categories, they really drop. So basically, to really make headway with the cores you want, you are really sacrificing numerous other attributes. Buyer beware.

ETA, even in the mid 20s, he’s still probably going to slip in the off-season overall. Probably looking at ~10 point drop his first year, a little less each season.

Good point about the decline in greens that you're not putting minutes into. With most recruits (with good WE), I'm focused on 3-4 cores for the first season or two, and then I'll get to the less important categories as those get to black and orange. If you do that with a 10 WE guy, the neglected categories are going to get trashed by the end of their soph year. That's more to make up later...