The debate over the 2018 ballot has already grown stale and I don't imagine any surprises come January 24th when the results are announced.

Chipper, Thome, Hoffman, and Vlad all will get elected and much to the chagrin of Joe Morgan, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds will continue to gain traction to their eventual election.

I'm actually more intrigued by the 2019 HOF ballot mainly because Roy Halladay is eligible after his tragic death and should sail in as one of the most dominant pitchers of the past 15 years.

Mariano Rivera will receive overwhelming support and open the hallowed doors for other relief pitchers, which is an important position, just like DH. Expect Rivera to get somewhere around 96-97% of the vote.

Also curious to see how Todd Helton and Lance Berkman fare in the voting because they are two of my all-time favorite players and both had tremendous careers. Will the Coors bias continue against Colorado Rockies hitters? My guess is an astounding YES! Nolan Arenado may have to break that trend in 20 years!

Andy Pettitte is also on the ballot but will fall short, rightfully so, due to steroid admission. This should please Joe Morgan immensely!

https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/future-eligibles#2019-eligibles

Andy Pettitte didn't need steroids to fall short, he does it on merit.

And Jesus

I'll say Rivera and Halladay, and 1-2 holdovers from this year's ballot.

I think Berkman and Helton are borderline. I could see them getting in eventually but it won't be first ballot.

Posted by Jtpsops on 11/23/2017 9:41:00 AM (view original):
I'll say Rivera and Halladay, and 1-2 holdovers from this year's ballot.

I think Berkman and Helton are borderline. I could see them getting in eventually but it won't be first ballot.

I don't see Berkman or Helton ever making it in. I think many if not most voters compare players against their peers in the Hall of Fame. And if you are a first baseman or a left fielder you have to have some real eye-popping things on your resume.

Helton had a HOF-worthy career, including being a very good defender. But I'm sure Coors will work against him, and it definitely should be factored into the evaluation.

I don’t think the Coors bias will hold much against Helton. He was their very first superstar and is probably still the face of their franchise. That alone will probably get him in.

I highly doubt Rivera gets 96-97% of the vote. My guess would be more like 85 - 88%.

I see Rivera getting low 90s, which will be huge for a RP. Too many voters refuse to vote for a RP, and some don't vote guys in on the first ballot. He's really gonna test the anti-reliever bias though. He's just too good to leave out.

I wouldn't be super shocked if Hoffman beats him in this year though.

Posted by Jtpsops on 11/23/2017 9:05:00 PM (view original):
I see Rivera getting low 90s, which will be huge for a RP. Too many voters refuse to vote for a RP, and some don't vote guys in on the first ballot. He's really gonna test the anti-reliever bias though. He's just too good to leave out.

I wouldn't be super shocked if Hoffman beats him in this year though.

Hoffman fell short by 5 votes last year so he better get in this time!

Better? Will you write a stern letter of admonishment if he doesn't?

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/24/2017 1:08:00 PM (view original):
Better? Will you write a stern letter of admonishment if he doesn't?

I already did last year!!

I responded to comments by Keith Law on Twitter about Trevor Hoffman. Here's his response:

keithlaw?Verified account @keithlaw Nov 26

Yes, he was almost as good as Lindy McDaniel, John Hiller, and Lee Smith (but not quite)!

THE John Hiller?

The thing I remember about THE John Hiller is that every time he pitched, the announcers would mention that he once had a heart attack.