Posted by thewizard17 on 12/28/2017 9:04:00 AM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/28/2017 1:06:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 12/27/2017 12:02:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 12/27/2017 11:50:00 AM (view original):

Posted by kevodaphenom on 12/27/2017 10:53:00 AM (view original):
Think I've been fortunate. I've gone about 7 or 8 seasons alternating between winning a roll and losing one.

Yeah over several teams my % is decent. Just my one team SDSU has been getting the poop end of the stick. On the other hand I won a 17% roll with NMSU for a stud 5 star.

It's amazing how many people continue to play the blame game. You have a choice. There are plenty of players available. There are no dice rolls in the game, just uneducated people. And people tend to drown themselves in their own sorrow.

-Coach Spud

You aren't authorized to speak for me, you f'n cheater. You couldn't carry my jock.

Sounds like someone had an alcohol induced meltdown last night. Last time I checked, hurling insults at another is against Fair Play Guidelines. I'll have to check with WIS for a ruling on this.

LOL. The internet equivalent of "I'M GONNA TELL MY MOM!!!!!"

Last time I checked Spudtard still hadn't wont a NT game...

So I wonder what jock he was referring to.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/CoachProfile/Default.aspx?uid=858804&wid=7

He should probably take credit for his denied alias. That dude is better at HD than spud.

You mean the fact he plays in an empty conference....still doesn't schedule humans in non-conf....and still comes up empty in the post season...?

Not much better if you ask me.

Won NT games

I saw an interesting one on my end.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/Preferences.aspx?rid=4226677

So the recruit had a preference of signing late; Texas ended up at 51% and Very High, but hadn’t offered a scholarship; he did have openings. Texas is an A+ prestige.

Recruit decided to go with me at 27% and High; other team was a C+ D1 at 22% with an offer in.

Seemed odd to me that the recruit wouldn’t wait another cycle in case the scholarship got offered. Is this a common occurrence?

I had 114 AP put in on three cycles and no money spent at all.

3 A+ D2 schools also had offers in, but ended up at 0%

My understanding from beta was that the signing cycle wasn’t “predetermined”, but rather probabilistic. In other words, a player isn’t programmed to sign on cycle 27 or whatever, but rather, he’s got a certain probability to sign each cycle, depending on his signing preference and if any teams are within signing range. So a player with a late preference has 0% probability to sign in the first session, then starts out RS2 at something like 10% - assuming there is a team within signing range - increasing a little each cycle until the end.

It’s possible this has been changed and I just don’t know about it, but I’m pretty sure that’s how Seble explained it in beta.

Posted by shoe3 on 12/28/2017 11:46:00 AM (view original):
My understanding from beta was that the signing cycle wasn’t “predetermined”, but rather probabilistic. In other words, a player isn’t programmed to sign on cycle 27 or whatever, but rather, he’s got a certain probability to sign each cycle, depending on his signing preference and if any teams are within signing range. So a player with a late preference has 0% probability to sign in the first session, then starts out RS2 at something like 10% - assuming there is a team within signing range - increasing a little each cycle until the end.

It’s possible this has been changed and I just don’t know about it, but I’m pretty sure that’s how Seble explained it in beta.

This is right. The cycle can't be pre specified, since a player could have 0 schools recruiting him (or 0 schools with openings) when he hits any given cycle.

Posted by shoe3 on 12/28/2017 11:46:00 AM (view original):
My understanding from beta was that the signing cycle wasn’t “predetermined”, but rather probabilistic. In other words, a player isn’t programmed to sign on cycle 27 or whatever, but rather, he’s got a certain probability to sign each cycle, depending on his signing preference and if any teams are within signing range. So a player with a late preference has 0% probability to sign in the first session, then starts out RS2 at something like 10% - assuming there is a team within signing range - increasing a little each cycle until the end.

It’s possible this has been changed and I just don’t know about it, but I’m pretty sure that’s how Seble explained it in beta.

This is interesting, Shoe. I didn't know this was ever the case, even if it isn't anymore.

Posted by shoe3 on 12/28/2017 11:46:00 AM (view original):
My understanding from beta was that the signing cycle wasn’t “predetermined”, but rather probabilistic. In other words, a player isn’t programmed to sign on cycle 27 or whatever, but rather, he’s got a certain probability to sign each cycle, depending on his signing preference and if any teams are within signing range. So a player with a late preference has 0% probability to sign in the first session, then starts out RS2 at something like 10% - assuming there is a team within signing range - increasing a little each cycle until the end.

It’s possible this has been changed and I just don’t know about it, but I’m pretty sure that’s how Seble explained it in beta.

Not correct shoe.

I suggested an approach similar to what you are stating but seble said attention had no impact on when the recruit signs. To me, that makes no sense, but that's the way he programmed it.

Now I could be misunderstanding your post because I can read it two different ways. But signing period and school interest where not linked in any way.

I think the only "link" shoe is describing is that there is a zero % probability of signing if no school is within signing range. What shoe describes sounds like what was described during beta.

So first AP unlocked the scholarship; second cycle just added to that and third cycle the player was signed. It’s in second session; second to last day of signings when that occurred.

Posted by pallas on 12/28/2017 11:58:00 AM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 12/28/2017 11:46:00 AM (view original):
My understanding from beta was that the signing cycle wasn’t “predetermined”, but rather probabilistic. In other words, a player isn’t programmed to sign on cycle 27 or whatever, but rather, he’s got a certain probability to sign each cycle, depending on his signing preference and if any teams are within signing range. So a player with a late preference has 0% probability to sign in the first session, then starts out RS2 at something like 10% - assuming there is a team within signing range - increasing a little each cycle until the end.

It’s possible this has been changed and I just don’t know about it, but I’m pretty sure that’s how Seble explained it in beta.

This is interesting, Shoe. I didn't know this was ever the case, even if it isn't anymore.

Yes Shoe is correct

A player is assigned with a specific signing tendency. (25% of each 4)

The chance for a player to sign will rise (or stay constant from 0 to 0) each cycle.

Posted by shoe3 on 12/28/2017 11:46:00 AM (view original):
My understanding from beta was that the signing cycle wasn’t “predetermined”, but rather probabilistic. In other words, a player isn’t programmed to sign on cycle 27 or whatever, but rather, he’s got a certain probability to sign each cycle, depending on his signing preference and if any teams are within signing range. So a player with a late preference has 0% probability to sign in the first session, then starts out RS2 at something like 10% - assuming there is a team within signing range - increasing a little each cycle until the end.

It’s possible this has been changed and I just don’t know about it, but I’m pretty sure that’s how Seble explained it in beta.

A disproportionate amount of players seem to sign when a school first considers them, when it is in the middle of possible signing times. I'm the process of calculating the actual odds for each cycle because I really want to know. Here is my model for an Early signer:

4-3 (first signing cycle) 10% chance. RNG Result: 56 (doesn't sign)
4-4 25% chance. RNG Result: 87 (doesn't sign)
5-1 50% chance. RNG Result: 65 (doesn't sign)
5-2 75% chance. RNG Result: 33 (2 different routes, 1 and 2)

Scenario 1
-The recruit is considering the team. (Signs)

Scenario 2
-Not considering a team. In that case, he will sign the very cycle he is offered a ship.

I've been unlucky with my UT Arlington team, but only in the "big" battles. I usually end up with around a 50% chance in battles I choose to all in on for Top 150 recruits, but lost my last 5 or 6 in a row on those until I finally won a battle for a SG this season. Meanwhile, battles that I only end up using APs and the occasional home visit with a 50% chance against D2 or lower D1 schools I've won almost every time.