Sorry so very late... and maybe most won't even care anymore, but I figured I'd get these posted. I collected the data the day recruits were added, then didn't have time to post prior to Christmas travel and family visits and everything else the season brings. At any rate, see the link below.

*Note: There is a limitation to my code with respect to the calculated "WIS Value." I usually correct this by hand, when necessary, but in my haste to download and create all the tables prior to leaving on vacation, I forgot to adjust. Due to this, you may see the top one or two teams in every division (except D-II, which happened to work out correctly) have a negative "WIS Value" in the Projected Rankings. This is purely cosmetic. The rankings - #1, #2, #3, etc - don't change.

S138 Media Guides

Appreciate the work you put into this!

I love it GT Duce

I truly appreciate it......been looking forward to it for 13 days!

Just one thing to remember: "A coach should NEVER let his personal life interfere with his fake, make believe, computer generated, football coaching life."

Question: Have you done any "look back" to see how your predictions have worked out? This season and last seem to be pretty "spot on" from what little bit I've looked at.

Thanks GT.

Good stuff, thanks

My first season in coming over to Wilkinson, this was the kind of stuff I was looking for! Thanks!!

Love this man. Thank you. Cheers!

Posted by harriswb3 on 1/4/2018 7:03:00 AM (view original):
I truly appreciate it......been looking forward to it for 13 days!

Just one thing to remember: "A coach should NEVER let his personal life interfere with his fake, make believe, computer generated, football coaching life."

Do what? Are you drunk again looking at your Bear Bryant books?

Posted by harriswb3 on 1/4/2018 7:11:00 AM (view original):
Question: Have you done any "look back" to see how your predictions have worked out? This season and last seem to be pretty "spot on" from what little bit I've looked at.

Not in any official capacity. I've often quickly browsed the Top 25 (or so) visually and I've come to the same conclusion as you - pretty spot-on. I mean, I'm always missing badly (both in the overestimate and underestimate sense) on a team or two, but mostly it's pretty accurate. This typically happens in one of two main cases:

1. A coach changes teams within a given level (IA, IAA...) after having a great season prior. That first season, they carry their old "Coach Effect" from the prior team with them, but getting used to a new team is difficult, so they end up doing worse than I projected as they "learn" the new team. or
2. A coach wildly overperforms or underperforms, inflating/deflating their Coach Effect, then they return to the "norm" the next season and I'm way off.

It's not always the case that one of those two things happens. Sometimes my algorithm is just wrong. But I'm comfortable with where it's at these days and pretty proud of the accuracy.

I do have all the data from past seasons (actual game results). And for the past few seasons, I now have the game-by-game (that huge results matrix) of my regular season projections. If I get ambitious, I might go back through that data and do a compare.

You called my regular season dead on. I lost to a team that I thought I would beat...but you called it. I'm amazed.