Sorry for the formatting - I don't know how to fix that.
No you're good, that's perfect. So first, some general principles-
1) Memorize the defensive matrix located on GM->Roster Management->Edit Rosters -> [click on link to any player's position] to get a feel for which positions a pattern of greens projects to
2) Over time you will get a feel for which attributes influence which stats
3) Over time you will get a feel for how far each attribute will develop via coaching and training over the course of 3-5 seasons before stopping. So once you see currents you can immediately estimate a player's full development.
4) when the list is released, for me at least the default order is by OVR descending. (I assume that's the default for everyone but I'm not sure.) So anyways, be aware of positional value because it affects which positions you immediately bump and which you immediately drop. In other words, a 75 OVR SS has different relative value than a 75 OVR LF, and a 75 OVR RP has a different relative value than a 75 OVR SP with low control, etc etc etc, based on things like fit-to-prototype and positional scarcity
5) Be wary of any of the attributes that are projected to be "100" (aside from INJ, which ends up being reliably accurate). So Chatwood has 100s for INJ PAT and MAK; Hull has one for RAN; and Miller has one for AA and EYE. The talent 100s are commonly over-projections, but you never know by how much. Don't rely on them
6) For pitchers- disregard the greens completely. For hitters- disregard the reds. For pitchers- disregard the blues even if you're NL. For both hitters and pitchers, get an idea of how much of their OVR is made up of yellows (long-term reliability) vs blues / reds (in-game talent which is good; also understand that "unused" attributes ie reds for hitters and blues for pitchers inflates OVR). For hitters- speed and BR is basically cool no matter what as you'd rather have it than not; the blue BR is more valuable than pure yellow speed imo, so like 50 speed 100 BR is better than 100 speed 50 BR imo
7) Get an overall picture for each guy rather than picking and choosing one or two attributes you really love or really hate
Ok, all that being said, I'll make observations about this group of guys
Chatwood:
For pitchers the first two attributes I observe are DUR and STAM, because I want to know what type of pitcher we have. DUR values will span between 15-35 for "starters" and usually 50+ for relievers. In general, add D+S together to see if it is higher or lower than 100 and that ends up being a general IP barometer (200 for SP 80 for RP). DUR 25 would put him right in the medium range for a starter (and 75 stam would put him right in the medium range because it basically equates to 100 pitches every 5 days); but 58 stam is 25 + 58 = 83 so he projects to either be a starter with a low pitch count, or a long reliever, or a setup who can pitch maybe 3 out of every 5 days depending on pitch count. You want starters to have Control of at least 80 so that they don't give up free runs and so that you don't have to pull them, so 83 is within a normal range for a ML starter, nothing special but meets the general baseline. Splits near 80+ range project well above average (65ish) so his OAV will be low. Strikeouts and double-plays are very high which makes a bigger difference in a hitters' park such as Texas and also when you have good infielders. 4 pitches with a strong P1, below par P2, pretty good P3-P4 so his average pitch # is standard for a talented starter. This type of player is typically greater than 75 OVR (with all the yellows this one could be 80+) and comparable veterans can command about $10M per season on the free agent market. As for possible overprojections- usually a pitcher is better against their "strong side" so if it says 80 vL and 82 vR, maybe it ends up being 80vL and 72 vR or 75-70 or whatever, but even that level of "disappointment" would still be quite good. You'd love to get a player like this 8th overall even with the low Stam because although he won't get 200 IP, he checks literally every other box for a prototype #1-2 starter
Plata
DUR + STAM = 119 so he projects to more of a "workhorse" SP in terms of innings, 86 control checks that box, 70-57 splits are fairly common for ML LHP. if the 70-57 is over-projected then this pick could be a bust, but if it's under-projected it could represent value, so definitely more of risk-reward here; Like Chatwood the VEL and GB adds a bit of value to your specific team as an ERA modifier, and his pitches project slightly better than average. Projects to #3 starter on an average team, #4 starter on a good team, or maybe a #2 if they underprojected him; probably stops in the 75-78 OVR range which ends up being fringe type-A/type-B in Free agency and commands between $5-$8M per season on the FA market. Not the best value for 8th overall but pitching is pitching and you can do worse. In the top-10 you're trying to land an All-Star at any position, or every once in a blue moon a HOF caliber guy who slips thru the cracks. With him, you'll get a ML player and you'll get value out of his first 5 ML seasons, but after that you'd rather trade him than pay him
Hull
Medical red flag, anything under 60-70 can be tricky, esp early in their low minors career when it's still developing in the 50s. Be very cautious; DUR red flag, anything under 80 needs frequent rest at the ML level; on a positive note, has an attractive defensive profile and fills positional scarcity; I don't love the 100 range and 81 glove, because we're expecting 100 range to be over-projected and 81 glove projects to below-par, and if that's also over-projected then he's going to really make a ton of errors at the ML level and that could make the pick a bust; has a defensive pattern that looks more like a CF pattern of 85-85-65-65 than a SS pattern of 80-85-85-85, but it could go either way; not enough bat for prototype 2B or 3B so he really needs to fit SS or CF; therefore, Glove is critical; bats L which is valuable for infielders; power for SS is quite rare (anything over 50 is usually good) so you're definitely attracted to 80+ if that's an honest projection but if that's a big lie then the pick could bust; splits and eye are annoyingly low-ish, where if he was a RH bat you might only use him as a 1/3 platoon vL because his vR is so low, but you probably end up using him only in a 2/3 platoon vR because his vL is so low, but since his DUR sucks you're planning on resting him anyways and therefore you're ok with this; definitely a future ML player around 70-75 OVR, guys like him often get $5-$8M per year in FA; it's ok to pass on a risky player and if somebody else hits then so be it, the downside of whiffing would hurt too much at 8th overall but if you're picking in the 15-25 range you're trying to hit the upside of a guy like this
Christians
72 DUR + 31 STAM = 104 which projects to a reliever who can reliably throw 1 IP two out of every three days and can throw 100 IP; control projects to 90s which is great, splits project to 80s which is great, strikeouts are high which is valuable for close-game relievers, P1 is 90s which is great, P2 is very low for some reason but it's not necessarily the end of the world; honestly the 46 P2 looks underprojected by 5-10 based on all the other attributes being SO high and a player like
Mark Chang comes to mind; OVR in the 75 range with lots of talent makes him a core reliever and often commands $10+M in free agency; don't be afraid to pull the trigger on a reliever 8th overall if they're really good because you can get tons of high-leverage innings out of a player like this and it's quite valuable; None of the attributes seem unnaturally over-projected so this pick feels very safe
Miller
Medical red flag; very enticing defensive profile even with the overprojected AA; the rest of the profile matches the SS par sequence of 80-85-85-85; very unusual series of hitting attributes; as previously mentioned-- most of the examples people were telling you were like 20-90-40-40-90, as opposed to 99-80-30-30-100; something you will learn is that contact is a red herring attribute and inflates OVR without giving much value because it only impacts whether his outs are strikeouts or in-play outs; so you should get in the habit of only evaluating power-splits-eye-BR to determine slash line and SB/CS. Splits convert to AVG, eye converts to OBP (isolated discipline), power converts to SLG (average plus XBH); so you need to understand that 30-30 splits are horrible and that comparable ML players end up hitting around .200; 99 contact means he will collect extra RBI on productive outs such as grounders and sac flies, but he will hit into a ton of DP; he MUST reach his defensive potential and he MUST have the power and eye as advertised in order to justify those splits; so if he reaches those then he's a solid starter for awhile esp his first 5 team-controlled seasons, but after that you would rather replace him with another cheap option than pay him money in a 2nd contract because he's replaceable; typically commands $4-6M in free agency
Based on all this, I would have ranked---
Chatwood
Christians
Plata
Hull over Miller because Hull bats L
What ended up happening:
Chatwood- current DUR + STAM is 23+44 so he will probably end up right at his projections near 25-58 give or take; in the minors he's a reliever and once fully developed this combo is fine to use as a starter in the majors; control can improve by as much as 25-30 over lifetime development so he will probably reach 80+, splits of 63-56 are very high for such a young player, so if he gets 25 to vL and 20 to vR then that's like 88-76 give or take; arm and gb are already elite and project to approx 90-90 just like they said; pitches are basically what they projected with P1 getting around 85-90 and P2 actually being better than advertised and P4 being lower (as if the scout flipped their places). This player is going to be excellent, arguably better than advertised, future All-star, would have represented value for the 8th pick
Christians- current DUR + STAM is 66 + 24 so no surprises there; control 75 + splits 64-62 is unbelievably high for a 19 yr old reliever; projects to 90-85-85 which is basically
Mike Prinz but with strikeouts and GBs adding value; like I suspected his P1-P2 combo looks a little bit more like 85-55 than 92-46; players like this make 10 all-star appearances in their career, it's an outstanding steal for the 25th pick as his career projection easily justifies the 8th pick. I could maybe prefer him over Chatwood
Plata- DUR + stam is 23-65 so he probably gets to 26-85 which is 200+ innings; 61-50-40 projects to something like 85-70-55 which is almost exactly what they promised he would be; pitches 66-62-42-35 should end up right around what your scout projected, give or take; #3-#4 starter, worth pick 15-20 but not pick 8
Hull- greens are 85 (!!)-59-82-62, I don't know that I've ever seen an 18 year old have 85 range in all my 60 seasons or whatever. He could easily get to 99 range; 59 glove is a little low, in order to qualify for ML SS you are targeting a start value of 65 for both glove and AA because fielding instructors can be lame, so 59 glove might only get to 77-80 glove which will end up making lots of errors as predicted; final greens should be something like 97 79 92 85 which you can still play at SS; 44 DUR 56 INJ is a big concern as predicted; 69 power should get to 80 for sure, but the owner will need to ensure that injuries do not derail his development; 30 vL is definitely getting platooned out; needs micro-management in his early career until DUR and INJ improve but has nice potential in the 70-75 OVR range as predicted with emphasis on range and power; because of platooning he ends up delivering more value than his OVR on a per-game talent basis. I would probably rather have Hull than Plata in hindsight
Miller- greens are 70-48-80-63; big time ouch on the glove, he projects to something like 82-75-92-85. Glove is the one that you really needed to come through and it's just so unlucky; even if his glove was normal but his range or arm was low you could pick up a hamstring injury or wrist injury that would fill in the gap, but nothing fixes low glove except coaching and it's just not enough for him; 48 DUR 48 INJ is a problem as predicted and needs to be kept in bubble wrap early on; 51 contact is nowhere near 99 and will probably only get to about 80; power of 56 might only get to 70; eye of 75 is actually really good and should get to 90+, but 24-20 splits are pretty lousy and arguably worse than projected, he could get to 40-35 if you're lucky but that's basically the 1/3 platoon against lefties only; Pick is a major bust at 8th overall, he projects to bench player / util at best, not even a major leaguer at worst. His bat cannot play 2B or 3B, and his range + glove does not do well at SS or CF, so... that's a really huge bummer and I feel for you
In summary--- Miller's glove thing (and to an extent the vR being even lower) REALLY hurts, but the moral of the story is that all four of those other players were the ones you need to notice in the top 50. All 5 of the scouting reports were pretty honest in general, some of the individual attributes were a surprise to the good or to the bad but the general ranges of reds and blues were almost spot-on once you saw their currents. Because pitching is so valuable (1 vs 9 as opposed to 9 vs 1) and because it costs so much on the open market, it is usually a smart idea to prioritize pitching higher than OVR suggests. You had the right idea with SS in general because it's a scarce position and power-hitting SS is very good, but Hull would have been a better choice by default simply because he is the better side of the platoon, he automatically gets to play twice as many games just by existing as an LH bat. That one tiny observation would have at least saved you from Miller in this instance. But chalk it up as a learning experience, don't stress out too much because you'll have other opportunities. With experience your ranks will be more value-based and risk-averse and good guys will end up falling to you in later positions in the future, the
Louie Kondou 's and
Bum Sweeney 's and
Chris Adkins 's of the world just like Chatwood and Christians fell to more experienced owners in your draft. After awhile you're the guy getting studs 25th