Advance warning: This is a random musing

I was reading the "how to set your relievers" thread and noticed some user advice on how to use the "call bullpen" rating. It got me thinking - if the SIM is truly based on an algorithm, and there is no behavioral/hot streak/cold streak factor ("he's having a rough outing today") at play then any "rough outing" is merely part of the random walk of the SIM. If this is true (a big if) - then why use the call bullpen at all - and merely manage pitchers using the target/max pitch counts?

In other words, if a decent reliever gives up a few hits and a run... it's not MORE LIKELY to continue if there is no "bad outing" factor - instead, I would argue mean reversion may apply and its better to keep him in (if he's a good pitcher). It just seems like "calling the bullpen" is a misnomer - either he's a terrible pitcher or a good pitcher. Calling the bullpen isn't going to change that.

(This excludes factors such as "I want him to face lefties"... especially since the LHSP and RHSP doesn't seem to work well)

Thoughts?

Yeah, that's how it works. I've stated as much many times and felt no need to repeat it. Fake players don't have bad days because they found out their fake wife was having a fake affair.

Agreed. I set my call bullpen mostly to 1s and 2s. The one thing I have found is that the sim will be less likely to be aggressive with pinch hitting. Mainly a problem with starters

I'm fine with my starters being 3 and my bullpen being 5.
I'm in the NL so pinch hitting and the double switch is very important. I still want my starters to go 6 but I find that getting hitters into the right spot plus having a big bullpen and having the proper matchups (leftie vs leftie rightie vs rightie) can make a big difference in the bullpen.

Also Mike didn't you mention something about a pitcher theoretically being worse the longer he goes into a game? (without going into a pjfoster explanation: Assume a pitcher starts off at 100% when he starts the game, then he throws half of his MPC and lets assume the in game engine has him at 50 or 40%. Would it bump his ratings down in game? Same with if he has passed his TPC and is going into his MPC and he's at 20% or 10%).

Correct but we're talking about RP. Based on DUR/STM, most of my RP are 10/15, 20/30 or 25/35. The difference between pitch 11 and 15, 22 and 30, or 27 and 35 isn't going to be dramatic like it would be between 48 and 92.

Yeah, if in-game fatigue isn't at play I want any SP that is better than any of my bullpen guys set at 1 for call bullpen. I wonder though, if a pitcher hits 0 in a game, does the sim recognize this and adjust his performance? If not, during any playoff game that is win or go home, I'm setting my starter's pitch count to 150 assuming he is better than any option in my bullpen, regardless of his stamina (I'll gamble with the injury risk). If he's not penalized for pitching at 0 stamina during the game there's no reason to pull him in a do or die situation.

Posted by brianplath on 1/29/2018 10:58:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, if in-game fatigue isn't at play I want any SP that is better than any of my bullpen guys set at 1 for call bullpen. I wonder though, if a pitcher hits 0 in a game, does the sim recognize this and adjust his performance? If not, during any playoff game that is win or go home, I'm setting my starter's pitch count to 150 assuming he is better than any option in my bullpen, regardless of his stamina (I'll gamble with the injury risk). If he's not penalized for pitching at 0 stamina during the game there's no reason to pull him in a do or die situation.

This is a really great question actually. Have you found the 150 pitches has worked?


@MikeT, would you think that if you had a super short reliever (10/15 pitches) and he gets stuck in a weird long at bat (14 pitches before one batter, that batter faces something like 7-10 pitches) that something like that would have any effect?

No, I don't think the engine is programmed like that at all.

Is it possible that each player is bumped up or down slightly heading into each game (not according to prior performance)? I get that sense when I see a great SP completely lose his **** in an early inning for eight runs, or when I see a low power position player hit 2 HRs in a game. I realize it is not outside the realm of possibility that this could still happen without that bump, but it still feels that way sometimes -- and I think it's realistic if it did.

If in game fatigue has no bearing, what's stopping someone from using a lights out RP as a SP with 150 pitches in a playoff situation (aside from increased injury risk?) This scenario makes me think they have some kind of in-game failsafe in place to prevent this being exploited.

Might play around with this in my minor league playoff games

Seems to me before we can even have this discussion we need to agree on whether in game fatigue exists.

It exists in simleague. I'm prone to believe the fatigue system is the same. If it didn't exist, we could run 3 man pitching staffs.

This is also purely anecdotal but I have a thousand page thread dedicated to answering questions and 184 completed seasons. One of the first things I tell someone when they ask "Why is this dude sucking?, after looking at his 27/68 DUR/STAM combo with PC in the 90s, "Lower his PC". I send my struggling SP to LR and lower their PC to 45/55. It works 90% of the time. I'm certain it's due to in-game fatigue

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/29/2018 1:47:00 PM (view original):
This is also purely anecdotal but I have a thousand page thread dedicated to answering questions and 184 completed seasons. One of the first things I tell someone when they ask "Why is this dude sucking?, after looking at his 27/68 DUR/STAM combo with PC in the 90s, "Lower his PC". I send my struggling SP to LR and lower their PC to 45/55. It works 90% of the time. I'm certain it's due to in-game fatigue

I think I figured something out.

I set my pull rating for some of my starters to 3-4 because I haven't figured out what the ideal pitch count is yet. I want to get the most out of them without it costing me.

So in theory, in a 1 game winner take all playoff game, I have my ace starter out, I could set his TPC and MPC to 150 and set his pull rating to 5. When the in game fatigue starts effecting him, I take him out ensuring the perfect pitch count.

.......... Unless Simmy hates me (which she does) and he gets shelled in the first inning and I have to play with a bullpen the rest of the game.