Posted by brianplath on 1/30/2018 3:34:00 PM (view original):
I've had this guy set at 150/150 all season and he's been getting shelled in later portions of the game. No way he should be sporting 5.82 ERA when his career ERA is 3.78. He's been fully rested for starts since I'm running a 6 man rotation. Makes me believe in Mike's simleague style fatigue hunch.

It's not really a hunch. Over the years, I've noticed shaving 10-15 pitches(an inning) off outings generally produces better results. It could be coincidence but, after 180ish seasons of my own and viewing hundreds, if not thousands, "What is wrong with this guy?" questions, it stops being coincidence at some point.

Posted by brianplath on 1/30/2018 4:01:00 PM (view original):
Right, but the question is when does he start losing his effectiveness? He's not at 0 stamina at the end of those games, so technically he still has some gas in the tank. Is the decline in effectiveness linear, logarithmic or does it not even come into effect until 0 stamina is hit or is it something else entirely?

Think of it in terms of RL baseball. Clearly after 150 pitches, Clayton Kershaw would still be able to throw a baseball, so he's not at 0...but I bet he's lost his effectiveness (and become worse than RP options) long before that.

The stamina rating is there for a reason. It gives you an idea of when your guy is going to hit his wall. Whether he's at 50% or 20% when he hits that wall is largely irrelevant. You know he's going to start pitching significantly worse once he hits it.

Remember that guy in the World Series for the Dodgers, said he was good to go tonight if you need me skip, had thrown something like 12 of the previous 13 games, lasted like eight pitches and gave up two or three HRs.

That guy.

Referencing the real world is pointless IMO since there are many aspects to HBD that don't relate to how things really operate. The reality is, we don't know how the game is programmed and we're all making WAG's.

I wasn't saying the game is based on RL. I'm saying use that principle. Guys lose their effectiveness long before they get to 0%. I believe that holds true in HBD as well.

If a guy's stamina is 90, he can probably comfortably through 120 pitches. After that, his performance is likely to decline significantly. It doesn't matter if he's at 50%, 25%, 10%, etc. after that 120th pitch...all you really need to know is that he's hit his wall. Which is why you've been killing Stankiewicz.

As I mentioned previously, go through and look at how many late inning runs he's giving up. If it's a lot - which it seems to be - his PC is clearly too high.

Posted by brianplath on 1/30/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):
Referencing the real world is pointless IMO since there are many aspects to HBD that don't relate to how things really operate. The reality is, we don't know how the game is programmed and we're all making WAG's.

Sorry for muddying the waters. I just remember watching that game and thinking, that guys at 0(0).

I need help.

Posted by brianplath on 1/30/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):
Referencing the real world is pointless IMO since there are many aspects to HBD that don't relate to how things really operate. The reality is, we don't know how the game is programmed and we're all making WAG's.

I'm not making a wild *** guess. I'm using experience and results to make an educated, and I'm certain correct, assessment.