That's like saying don't bring an umbrella when the forecast calls for rain because I've see the sun come out on those days. If you aren't doing everything you can to increase your odds of winning then you will never be an elite coach.

As others note, half of the equation depends on what the other guy does. If s/he anticipates your change and/or compensates for it, then it’s not going to have the desired effect. It’s also possible to overcompensate, and push distribution too high, play too far in/out, etc.

That's why its important to review box scores/PBPs and pick up trends of your opponent.

I believe the chess match of a man defense won me my one national title I have. At D3, I had a SG who had 100 DEF and I switched him to SF for the championship game and mostly shut down the other guy's leading scorer, who he also shifted from SG to SF to try to avoid my stud defender. I just guessed right.

I tend to shuffle my lineup around when I know I have a weak spot on defense to match up with the other teams scorers, and I'll shift distro on offense by a few points when I play man teams with a some weak links, and I like to think it has helped.

Posted by mullycj on 3/6/2018 8:06:00 AM (view original):
That's like saying don't bring an umbrella when the forecast calls for rain because I've see the sun come out on those days. If you aren't doing everything you can to increase your odds of winning then you will never be an elite coach.

I would normally agree with this 100%, except 2 things. It might be that taking more shots, could also lead to more forced shots compared to a more balanced approach. Where if a player might shoot 4-8 in the normal flow of the offense, but might only go 6-14 trying to load up on distro. Second point, if the player you're loading up on distro is starting, I'm wondering if it's possible at any point during the beginning of the game, say first 10 minutes, if he's taken more than 50% of the shots, he might suffer an excessive shot penalty.

True. I don’t go bat shoot crazy when I increase distributions