Posted by zorzii on 4/14/2018 11:58:00 AM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 4/14/2018 11:09:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 4/14/2018 8:01:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mamxet on 4/13/2018 9:02:00 PM (view original):
16th ranked player who was likely going stayed

guy with only one 90+ who wasnt on the board goes

at least two guys off the board in Big East alone went

nothing per se bad about that, but I think EEs are painful enough with 2 step recruiting that the algorithm should rarely or never take a guy who isnt on the board

and all or virtually all lottery picks should go -

the result really craters our competitiveness in a way that we couldnt prepare for

+1

And limit the number of ees random can generate for a team. I lost four twice on on the fence and likely staying players. One guy just said he lost 5... I mean, it's not high risk, high reward, it's bad luck that ruins competitiveness for two to three seasons.

You limit the number of EEs by your recruiting choices. This is not too hard for you.

Shoe : My point is that decisions have less to do with winning than :

1) Luck
2) Location
3) Gamin' the ees

All of those things are based on choices you make. You choose who to go after, and how to develop the guys you get. You assess the EE potential for the players you recruit, and plan accordingly. The game is more than knowing that 95 is better than 85, or that ball handling and passing are more important than rebounding for guards.

top it off with losing 50% shot key target in phase one and now losing 65% shot in phase two and this run of unlikely bad die rolls just socks

support says that guys going EE without being on the Board are unlikely - and tend to happen with

big post season success - sweet 16
individual awards - none
when other guys above dont leave - yup, sure thing - and that doesnt help

its like losing to inside straights over and over - can happen - but socks.

looks like we go from a team with nice returns and in the lead for nice recruits to a team with 8 or if we can grab ine of our third level targets 9 players and no chance

Posted by mamxet on 4/18/2018 12:58:00 AM (view original):
top it off with losing 50% shot key target in phase one and now losing 65% shot in phase two and this run of unlikely bad die rolls just socks

support says that guys going EE without being on the Board are unlikely - and tend to happen with

big post season success - sweet 16
individual awards - none
when other guys above dont leave - yup, sure thing - and that doesnt help

its like losing to inside straights over and over - can happen - but socks.

looks like we go from a team with nice returns and in the lead for nice recruits to a team with 8 or if we can grab ine of our third level targets 9 players and no chance

I collected EE data for about a dozen seasons and about 3% of all EEs are not on the big board. So yes, unlikely but still too high IMO.

Also I didn't notice a significant correlation between players leaving or staying due to postseason or individual success. I saw teams make FF and highly rated players stay while some mediocre teams lost off the board players. I think the impact is very small.

The impact of NT success or awards is likely pretty small. The difference between a 45% and a 50% probability to leave is not very meaningful on the back end. What matters to you is the 3rd thing on their list.

I like to count up the number of graduating seniors + likely going players, when I have a player at the end of the big board, or maybe sitting just off it. Some years have more seniors on the big board than others. Low senior years mean higher probability for guys drafted from the bottom of the BB or off it completely.

Right now in Naismith, there are 37 graduating seniors on the big board, and 17 likely going players who will have a higher probability to leave. I usually count them at about 75% and round down, so in this case that’s 49 total spots already likely accounted for. Only 11 more for the 46 players left on the big board, most of whom will be “on the fence” in that 45-55% range, if the system calls their name. Chances are slim that it will get off the board.

On the other hand, in Phelan at the beginning of the season, there are only 31 seniors, and a few of those are likely to drop off by the end of the year. If the graduating guys starting at 80 and below all drop off the big board by the end of the year, you’re looking at only 23 seniors, and now there’s a likelihood that the system might need to find 25 players or more from the “on the fence” or lower probability, and in that scenario, it’s much more likely to see guys off the BB drafted.