As I recall there was a study that showed recruits ranked in the top 15 at their position and international recruits were the only players that went EE. Does anyone have exceptions to this rule?
4/13/2018 7:08 PM
Posted by ftbeaglesfan on 4/13/2018 7:08:00 PM (view original):
As I recall there was a study that showed recruits ranked in the top 15 at their position and international recruits were the only players that went EE. Does anyone have exceptions to this rule?
No, I’ve seen guys go in the 30s. But the vast majority are in the top 20 by position. The lower ones that go are pretty easy to spot, with combo of plenty of green and a good work ethic. Basically, if he projects reasonably close to 90 in most cores, and ~140+LP/per combo, he could go.
4/13/2018 7:24 PM
Thanks shoe. One question: Were those JUCOs?

JUCO and transfer players were not included. I've had several low ranked JUCO players leave on me.
4/13/2018 7:31 PM (edited)
Posted by ftbeaglesfan on 4/13/2018 7:31:00 PM (view original):
Thanks shoe. One question: Were those JUCOs?

JUCO and transfer players were not included. I've had several low ranked JUCO players leave on me.
Nope. This one was a guy I recruited, and left his junior year. I was already gone, and probably would have worked his practice plan a little differently than simmy did.
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerHistory/RatingsHistory.aspx?pid=3706713

ETA, I guess it doesn’t say his original recruit ranking by position, but I’m pretty sure it was around 30. Definitely out of the top 20.
4/13/2018 7:39 PM (edited)
Mathew Sieben was the #42 SG and he's currently 88 on the big board. Granted he's not a top 50 guy on the BB, but he would have been with 95+ with PER and LP.
4/13/2018 10:52 PM
I’ve seen seniors ranked lower than ~150 by position end up on the big board. The question is, I think, specific to early entries. For EEs, it is very rare to see them come from below ~20 by position, though it does happen. That’s why it’s smart, IMO, to base your assessment on multiple indicators.
4/14/2018 12:23 AM
For what it’s worth, here are the prime indicators I use to gauge if a player is a possible early entry candidate. I evaluate all players for whom I expend significant recruiting effort (all in, or near max visits). I don’t mind early entry candidates, but I try not to have more than one in any given class. In order of importance:

1) Class ranking by position. Top 5 players by position are very likely to be on the big board prior to their senior year, and are EE candidates. Top 20 players by position are all in the watch zone for me. There are obviously some duds that never get too close, and you can spot them by potential. At the same time, there are (rarely) players out of the top 20 by position with high potential who can get to the big board prior to senior year, with maximized development.
2) LP/Per combo. If either projects to 90+, or if in combination they project to 140+, they may be early entry candidates, if some other baseline conditions are met.
3) Ath/Spd/Def core. In general, a 270 combo in those 3 will put the player in range, if other conditions are met. Sometimes guards with 100/100 ath/def, but under 80 speed can sneak by off the big board, even if they surpass the 270.
4) Skill cores all project above 80. For guards, it’s per, ball handling, speed; for bigs it’s rebounding, block, and LP. Keep in mind, the fake NBA GMs value skill cores (especially LP and per) more than the HD community does.
5) Overall near 800. This is the least important of the indicators, but especially if one or more of the indicators above is true, this one can be worth looking at, especially if the player has no glaring weakness at his position.

People mistakenly use the word “random” in relation to the big board and EEs. What they mean is probabilistic, of course. Even though a number is randomly generated to trigger the final decision, where that number lies on the player’s probability line is determined by how the system weighs his attributes, and how he stacks up relatively against everyone else. There is a rhyme and reason, it is our job as coaches to assess where each player we recruit lines up.
4/14/2018 3:18 PM (edited)

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