I have two on the fence players

84 and 91

Does the number where they are at change anything?

84 may have a very slightly higher chance to leave, but the big difference is that it’s possible the draft will be completed before the system gets to 91 - IE, enough guys say “yes” to the draft ahead of him.

Ok so it goes from 1 to ... and it's the odds.

I am 99% sure these are the basics of how it works. The system goes down the draft board (not necessarily the last Big Board, because it may change a little in the postseason) and essentially asks each recruit in succession if they would like to come join the fake NBA, until it gets to 60 “yes”. The higher a guy is on the draft board within his class, the more likely he is to leave; juniors in the top 30 or so will be “likely going”, while sophomores need to be in the lottery area to be “likely going”.