Can you tell in advance if a guy is going to have a 4th arb?

I once arbed a guy five times. No, I didn't know I could do it, so I wasn't looking to tell in advance.

Arb is for players with between three and five seasons of big league experience. The player was a 1st-round SP bust. I had him on a typical career path, put him in the starting rotation and by his third season he was getting shelled and no longer in the rotation. In his fourth season (first arb) I sent him down to AAA because I had the cap room to stash him there. Both that season and the next I kept him in AAA and brought him back up for September call-ups. Wasn't trying to do so, but it messed with his service time.

When he made it back to the majors to stay it was as an LR. As an experiment, I arbed him the third time to see what would happen. Didn't really care if I lost him, at that point. But then I checked the next season's arb report and there he was again. And the same the year after. And even after I arbed him the fifth time, he was willing to sign long term if I showed him the money. I didn't. Got a Type B for him.

Probably none of that would have been possible if he didn't have 98 Patience, though.

So you can maybe tell if you hover over his ML Years on his player card and keep an eye on that, but the key to getting it seems to be bouncing the player down to AAA without burning his options, which kinda means having him down there while he's already been arbed. Not many owners want to or are willing to do that.