I found a recruit with no preferences....


Team #1 B+ Prestige 240 AP 51% chance signing
Team #2 B Prestige 205 AP 27% chance
Team #3 B Prestige 180 AP 21% change

No other effort was put in other than scholarships.

This makes me think:

1. Prestige is still closer to 70% per full letter grade than some people think.
2. Scholarships have some recruiting value (roughly 40 AP).


I am interested in other peoples thoughts on this.

Did all 3 teams offer scholarships?

There's a time dimension too. All recruiting actions seem to become more "effective" the farther into recruiting we go. But I have no idea what the graph of that looks like; I'm positive the slope isn't constant.

I do think scholarships are worth a lot more than 40 AP, regardless of timing.

Posted by grimacedance on 5/7/2018 12:24:00 PM (view original):
Did all 3 teams offer scholarships?

Yes.

Posted by kcsundevil on 5/7/2018 12:30:00 PM (view original):
There's a time dimension too. All recruiting actions seem to become more "effective" the farther into recruiting we go. But I have no idea what the graph of that looks like; I'm positive the slope isn't constant.

I do think scholarships are worth a lot more than 40 AP, regardless of timing.

All effort was put in over the same three windows of opportunity. This was a transfer in the second cycle.

Prestige seems to play a big part, but in a sense, it's tough to know what is the value of effort since nobody has done a lot.

Since we don't know the exact value of a scholarship, lets assume it is zero (it isn't, but it doesn't matter for the math on this).

If prestige had been equal, the odds should have looked like this
Team A 38% (240 APs/625 APs from all three teams)
Team B 33% (205 APs/625 APs)
Team C 29% (180 APs/625 APs)

In order to figure out how Team A got to 51%, some simple algebra

.51 = (x+240)/(x+625)
x=160 (rounded down)

When you give Team A an additional 160 points for a prestige bump, the numbers come out as
Team A 51% (400 APs+prestige/785 total effort expended)
Team B 26% (205 APs/785)
Team C 23% (180 APs/785)

With some rounding here and there, that roughly correlates to what the exact posted odds were. Team A's had a prestige advantage of 1/3rd of a letter grade (B+ vs. B) and that advantage almost equaled all of the effort put in by Team C.

Posted by grimacedance on 5/7/2018 1:30:00 PM (view original):
Since we don't know the exact value of a scholarship, lets assume it is zero (it isn't, but it doesn't matter for the math on this).

If prestige had been equal, the odds should have looked like this
Team A 38% (240 APs/625 APs from all three teams)
Team B 33% (205 APs/625 APs)
Team C 29% (180 APs/625 APs)

In order to figure out how Team A got to 51%, some simple algebra

.51 = (x+240)/(x+625)
x=160 (rounded down)

When you give Team A an additional 160 points for a prestige bump, the numbers come out as
Team A 51% (400 APs+prestige/785 total effort expended)
Team B 26% (205 APs/785)
Team C 23% (180 APs/785)

With some rounding here and there, that roughly correlates to what the exact posted odds were. Team A's had a prestige advantage of 1/3rd of a letter grade (B+ vs. B) and that advantage almost equaled all of the effort put in by Team C.

But it's really not 51% for the leading team. The team in the lead gets a bump or as Seble described it - the "odds are stretched". I'm not sure how much it adds exactly but in a near 50/50 battle it was about 4%.

Posted by Benis on 5/7/2018 1:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by grimacedance on 5/7/2018 1:30:00 PM (view original):
Since we don't know the exact value of a scholarship, lets assume it is zero (it isn't, but it doesn't matter for the math on this).

If prestige had been equal, the odds should have looked like this
Team A 38% (240 APs/625 APs from all three teams)
Team B 33% (205 APs/625 APs)
Team C 29% (180 APs/625 APs)

In order to figure out how Team A got to 51%, some simple algebra

.51 = (x+240)/(x+625)
x=160 (rounded down)

When you give Team A an additional 160 points for a prestige bump, the numbers come out as
Team A 51% (400 APs+prestige/785 total effort expended)
Team B 26% (205 APs/785)
Team C 23% (180 APs/785)

With some rounding here and there, that roughly correlates to what the exact posted odds were. Team A's had a prestige advantage of 1/3rd of a letter grade (B+ vs. B) and that advantage almost equaled all of the effort put in by Team C.

But it's really not 51% for the leading team. The team in the lead gets a bump or as Seble described it - the "odds are stretched". I'm not sure how much it adds exactly but in a near 50/50 battle it was about 4%.

If you knock Team A down to a true percentage of 48% (with a 3% bump for being in the lead), then the prestige bump was worth 115 APs.

Scholarship value does matter, it changes the ratio of effort.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/7/2018 4:26:00 PM (view original):
Scholarship value does matter, it changes the ratio of effort.

Yeah, you're right. Brain fart on my part. <insert Homer Simpson retreating into bushes.gif>