I have only been at 20 million high scouting budget for one season. How accurate is it? I know that coaching, training, injuries, and playing time affect development, but assuming the coaching, playing time, training, and no injuries, does the scouting department tend to overestimate or underestimated at 20 million?

My rule of thumb is +/- 10, with physical ratings more likely to hit than skill ratings, which leaves me disappointed more often than not

It is as accurate as it will get.

mempgrizz: What do you mean by +/- 10? I get the negative part (falling short of ratings expectations, which happens too much), but ratings don't go above what are projected (which is unfortunate). Just curious.

Ratings will go above their projections from time to time.

20 mil scouting includes some degree of fuzziness. Exactly how much, I don’t think any of us can say. Mempgrizz’ 10 point swing might be a worst case view, but there certainly have been cases of such things happening.

I think we take projections too seriously if we’re worried about them after the fact. They’re in place to help you decide between players you are interested in drafting, signing, or trading for. Once they’re on your team, the projections are nice to look at, that’s all.

Posted by drummer_66 on 5/12/2018 10:05:00 PM (view original):
It is as accurate as it will get.

mempgrizz: What do you mean by +/- 10? I get the negative part (falling short of ratings expectations, which happens too much), but ratings don't go above what are projected (which is unfortunate). Just curious.

I mean the projected numbers are +/- from true potential. True potential is what stops development, projections are just an inaccurate look at those numbers. Even at 20m you'll still sometimes end up with players better than their draft projections