Has anyone figured out a definitive way to estimate the growth range of a recruit? Something like WE + Potential?

Posted by rhoneunited on 5/30/2018 5:08:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone figured out a definitive way to estimate the growth range of a recruit? Something like WE + Potential?

If somebody did, I doubt they would share that.

That would be straight Golden

Posted by flexmagnum on 5/30/2018 5:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by rhoneunited on 5/30/2018 5:08:00 PM (view original):
Has anyone figured out a definitive way to estimate the growth range of a recruit? Something like WE + Potential?

If somebody did, I doubt they would share that.

That would be straight Golden

I had to try

But yeah, that's most of it. Actual formula, who knows. Playing time as a freshman and starts as a soph increases WE, so that expands growth. Be careful when you recruit players with very low WE (below 30 or so), because it will be very hard to increase their WE even if you start them early.

I think of WE and GPA both as an interest rate for Growth and FIQ, respectively.

Posted by bjschumacher on 5/30/2018 6:24:00 PM (view original):
But yeah, that's most of it. Actual formula, who knows. Playing time as a freshman and starts as a soph increases WE, so that expands growth. Be careful when you recruit players with very low WE (below 30 or so), because it will be very hard to increase their WE even if you start them early.

Yeah I tend to try and stay away from low WE even if the player starts with decent numbers. I'm glad you said this because I was always afraid it was just me being paranoid and I was missing out on good recuits

Posted by chewbaluba on 5/30/2018 9:27:00 PM (view original):
I think of WE and GPA both as an interest rate for Growth and FIQ, respectively.

That's interesting about the GPA and FIQ. I never really thought about it. That's smart

I only really pay attention to GPA and formation IQ for quarterbacks. Although I'm sure it does make a difference for all players.

Then you also have the factor of practice time for the athlete that supposedly has an affect depending on how you set up practices. Maybe I will setup a spreadsheet and see effects using the same practices. Sounds like fun.

man wants some playing time

There have been a few threads in the past that give hints on what the formula looks like. There are a number of factors:
- potential
- work ethic
- playing time
- starts
- the starting value of the attribute
- practice time
- number of games
- other factors that provide some variability in each result

It is not a straight line progression - it can be approximated that way for ratings that start below 70 - 80, but above 80, you definitely see a curve as the growth diminishes.

I tracked everything for all my recruits for 30 seasons and then ran some statistical simulations to come up with the ultimate formulas I use now. You can get the straight line approximation after tracking a season or two and refine from there, so it shouldn't take you long to get rolling.

Hope this helps,
B