Home Field Advantage Topic

schwarze
Posts: 37929 (2)
Hall of Famer
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It's time to think about building in a home field advantage to the player stats for sim baseball. There is a measureable advantage in real MLB. It's time to incorporate that into the sim. Here are the real life numbers...
5/31/2018 11:20 AM
schwarze
Posts: 37929 (2)
Hall of Famer
1693 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
BATTING - OPS
it's easy to see that except for a couple of extreme parks, teams are simply better statistically at home.
.
HOME 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 AVG
---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Arizona 0.791 0.793 0.787 0.781 0.769 0.736 0.717 0.756 0.794 0.842 0.777
Atlanta 0.767 0.729 0.771 0.731 0.724 0.753 0.668 0.677 0.704 0.729 0.725
Baltimore 0.785 0.805 0.729 0.743 0.778 0.763 0.741 0.792 0.779 0.784 0.770
Boston 0.840 0.862 0.804 0.839 0.788 0.819 0.711 0.800 0.858 0.752 0.807
Chicago Cubs 0.839 0.767 0.743 0.722 0.701 0.739 0.689 0.718 0.768 0.805 0.749
Chicago Sox 0.827 0.743 0.796 0.722 0.794 0.691 0.711 0.686 0.742 0.739 0.745
Cincinnati 0.759 0.745 0.796 0.756 0.761 0.723 0.687 0.728 0.741 0.779 0.748
Cleveland 0.794 0.717 0.710 0.734 0.699 0.736 0.714 0.761 0.827 0.782 0.747
Colorado 0.804 0.850 0.866 0.796 0.867 0.808 0.902 0.841 0.885 0.862 0.848
Detroit 0.829 0.776 0.775 0.811 0.793 0.821 0.774 0.754 0.787 0.805 0.793
Houston 0.776 0.750 0.678 0.705 0.698 0.668 0.712 0.783 0.717 0.812 0.730
Kansas City 0.722 0.763 0.751 0.743 0.744 0.696 0.673 0.760 0.733 0.737 0.732
LA Angels 0.747 0.804 0.691 0.687 0.753 0.750 0.706 0.720 0.716 0.723 0.730
LA Dodgers 0.731 0.742 0.714 0.684 0.703 0.701 0.717 0.746 0.743 0.783 0.726
Miami 0.743 0.777 0.724 0.717 0.694 0.630 0.722 0.689 0.689 0.756 0.714
Milwaukee 0.758 0.776 0.766 0.805 0.809 0.727 0.728 0.713 0.748 0.761 0.759
Minnesota 0.777 0.797 0.776 0.670 0.757 0.696 0.736 0.746 0.736 0.803 0.749
NY Mets 0.780 0.748 0.718 0.726 0.679 0.632 0.644 0.693 0.728 0.719 0.707
NY Yankees 0.789 0.858 0.832 0.825 0.807 0.710 0.706 0.759 0.752 0.817 0.786
Oakland 0.689 0.736 0.712 0.695 0.703 0.730 0.732 0.713 0.658 0.798 0.717
Philadelphia 0.788 0.796 0.763 0.735 0.722 0.721 0.663 0.692 0.663 0.756 0.730
Pittsburgh 0.731 0.755 0.710 0.671 0.670 0.701 0.752 0.719 0.759 0.717 0.719
San Diego 0.681 0.655 0.678 0.630 0.685 0.673 0.647 0.698 0.701 0.700 0.675
San Francisco 0.715 0.738 0.745 0.650 0.705 0.694 0.696 0.721 0.763 0.678 0.711
Seattle 0.720 0.712 0.623 0.623 0.622 0.694 0.664 0.715 0.761 0.761 0.690
St. Louis 0.781 0.739 0.755 0.745 0.786 0.739 0.725 0.730 0.753 0.762 0.752
Tampa Bay 0.800 0.815 0.726 0.705 0.694 0.739 0.684 0.703 0.714 0.736 0.732
Texas 0.866 0.816 0.800 0.860 0.820 0.745 0.677 0.785 0.797 0.806 0.797
Toronto 0.745 0.769 0.804 0.759 0.740 0.759 0.766 0.836 0.785 0.731 0.769
Washington 0.696 0.746 0.734 0.720 0.762 0.735 0.733 0.743 0.748 0.823 0.744
League Average 0.769 0.769 0.749 0.733 0.741 0.724 0.713 0.739 0.752 0.769 0.746
.
AWAY 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 AVG
---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Arizona 0.695 0.693 0.695 0.692 0.725 0.696 0.639 0.721 0.710 0.706 0.697
Atlanta 0.739 0.759 0.711 0.660 0.694 0.694 0.662 0.671 0.706 0.747 0.704
Baltimore 0.741 0.690 0.675 0.715 0.681 0.725 0.726 0.668 0.743 0.710 0.707
Boston 0.772 0.753 0.777 0.780 0.671 0.773 0.658 0.682 0.762 0.720 0.735
Chicago Cubs 0.758 0.712 0.699 0.708 0.659 0.647 0.680 0.721 0.776 0.747 0.711
Chicago Sox 0.732 0.738 0.709 0.691 0.688 0.670 0.706 0.687 0.714 0.723 0.706
Cincinnati 0.699 0.680 0.754 0.713 0.693 0.714 0.637 0.684 0.707 0.744 0.703
Cleveland 0.732 0.793 0.690 0.695 0.711 0.737 0.698 0.689 0.691 0.793 0.723
Colorado 0.699 0.718 0.654 0.683 0.662 0.672 0.636 0.652 0.700 0.703 0.678
Detroit 0.741 0.720 0.726 0.738 0.722 0.742 0.741 0.742 0.752 0.690 0.731
Houston 0.701 0.689 0.652 0.664 0.648 0.680 0.672 0.723 0.752 0.834 0.702
Kansas City 0.713 0.685 0.710 0.744 0.690 0.692 0.705 0.709 0.692 0.726 0.707
LA Angels 0.738 0.780 0.712 0.741 0.774 0.737 0.750 0.686 0.736 0.701 0.736
LA Dodgers 0.732 0.772 0.688 0.709 0.678 0.742 0.758 0.731 0.714 0.760 0.728
Miami 0.774 0.735 0.724 0.696 0.686 0.624 0.668 0.698 0.742 0.766 0.711
Milwaukee 0.755 0.759 0.752 0.698 0.716 0.690 0.689 0.687 0.711 0.742 0.720
Minnesota 0.722 0.750 0.750 0.662 0.674 0.689 0.690 0.664 0.739 0.733 0.707
NY Mets 0.743 0.711 0.677 0.725 0.722 0.710 0.699 0.730 0.737 0.788 0.724
NY Yankees 0.749 0.822 0.742 0.751 0.774 0.657 0.669 0.729 0.689 0.755 0.734
Oakland 0.683 0.716 0.694 0.666 0.724 0.760 0.670 0.701 0.737 0.714 0.707
Philadelphia 0.753 0.767 0.727 0.700 0.711 0.660 0.668 0.677 0.707 0.692 0.706
Pittsburgh 0.715 0.656 0.647 0.681 0.725 0.717 0.717 0.719 0.710 0.690 0.698
San Diego 0.731 0.744 0.698 0.675 0.713 0.698 0.621 0.673 0.677 0.685 0.692
San Francisco 0.692 0.662 0.715 0.691 0.742 0.709 0.701 0.743 0.693 0.700 0.705
Seattle 0.695 0.719 0.651 0.658 0.703 0.696 0.687 0.729 0.752 0.738 0.703
St. Louis 0.785 0.754 0.712 0.785 0.731 0.728 0.655 0.702 0.782 0.757 0.739
Tampa Bay 0.728 0.751 0.745 0.742 0.726 0.734 0.684 0.737 0.751 0.742 0.734
Texas 0.766 0.715 0.716 0.740 0.740 0.726 0.701 0.692 0.714 0.694 0.720
Toronto 0.716 0.777 0.733 0.700 0.693 0.699 0.708 0.760 0.726 0.718 0.723
Washington 0.695 0.740 0.684 0.665 0.738 0.686 0.695 0.705 0.754 0.741 0.710
League Average 0.730 0.732 0.707 0.706 0.707 0.703 0.686 0.704 0.726 0.732 0.713
.
DIFFERENCE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 AVG
---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Arizona 13.8% 14.4% 13.2% 12.9% 6.1% 5.7% 12.2% 4.9% 11.8% 19.3% 11.4%
Atlanta 3.8% -4.0% 8.4% 10.8% 4.3% 8.5% 0.9% 0.9% -0.3% -2.4% 3.0%
Baltimore 5.9% 16.7% 8.0% 3.9% 14.2% 5.2% 2.1% 18.6% 4.8% 10.4% 8.8%
Boston 8.8% 14.5% 3.5% 7.6% 17.4% 6.0% 8.1% 17.3% 12.6% 4.4% 9.9%
Chicago Cubs 10.7% 7.7% 6.3% 2.0% 6.4% 14.2% 1.3% -0.4% -1.0% 7.8% 5.4%
Chicago Sox 13.0% 0.7% 12.3% 4.5% 15.4% 3.1% 0.7% -0.1% 3.9% 2.2% 5.6%
Cincinnati 8.6% 9.6% 5.6% 6.0% 9.8% 1.3% 7.8% 6.4% 4.8% 4.7% 6.4%
Cleveland 8.5% -9.6% 2.9% 5.6% -1.7% -0.1% 2.3% 10.4% 19.7% -1.4% 3.4%
Colorado 15.0% 18.4% 32.4% 16.5% 31.0% 20.2% 41.8% 29.0% 26.4% 22.6% 25.1%
Detroit 11.9% 7.8% 6.7% 9.9% 9.8% 10.6% 4.5% 1.6% 4.7% 16.7% 8.4%
Houston 10.7% 8.9% 4.0% 6.2% 7.7% -1.8% 6.0% 8.3% -4.7% -2.6% 4.0%
Kansas City 1.3% 11.4% 5.8% -0.1% 7.8% 0.6% -4.5% 7.2% 5.9% 1.5% 3.6%
LA Angels 1.2% 3.1% -2.9% -7.3% -2.7% 1.8% -5.9% 5.0% -2.7% 3.1% -0.8%
LA Dodgers -0.1% -3.9% 3.8% -3.5% 3.7% -5.5% -5.4% 2.1% 4.1% 3.0% -0.3%
Miami -4.0% 5.7% 0.0% 3.0% 1.2% 1.0% 8.1% -1.3% -7.1% -1.3% 0.4%
Milwaukee 0.4% 2.2% 1.9% 15.3% 13.0% 5.4% 5.7% 3.8% 5.2% 2.6% 5.4%
Minnesota 7.6% 6.3% 3.5% 1.2% 12.3% 1.0% 6.7% 12.3% -0.4% 9.5% 6.0%
NY Mets 5.0% 5.2% 6.1% 0.1% -6.0% -11.0% -7.9% -5.1% -1.2% -8.8% -2.4%
NY Yankees 5.3% 4.4% 12.1% 9.9% 4.3% 8.1% 5.5% 4.1% 9.1% 8.2% 7.1%
Oakland 0.9% 2.8% 2.6% 4.4% -2.9% -3.9% 9.3% 1.7% -10.7% 11.8% 1.4%
Philadelphia 4.6% 3.8% 5.0% 5.0% 1.5% 9.2% -0.7% 2.2% -6.2% 9.2% 3.4%
Pittsburgh 2.2% 15.1% 9.7% -1.5% -7.6% -2.2% 4.9% 0.0% 6.9% 3.9% 3.0%
San Diego -6.8% -12.0% -2.9% -6.7% -3.9% -3.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 2.2% -2.4%
San Francisco 3.3% 11.5% 4.2% -5.9% -5.0% -2.1% -0.7% -3.0% 10.1% -3.1% 0.8%
Seattle 3.6% -1.0% -4.3% -5.3% -11.5% -0.3% -3.3% -1.9% 1.2% 3.1% -1.9%
St. Louis -0.5% -2.0% 6.0% -5.1% 7.5% 1.5% 10.7% 4.0% -3.7% 0.7% 1.7%
Tampa Bay 9.9% 8.5% -2.6% -5.0% -4.4% 0.7% 0.0% -4.6% -4.9% -0.8% -0.3%
Texas 13.1% 14.1% 11.7% 16.2% 10.8% 2.6% -3.4% 13.4% 11.6% 16.1% 10.7%
Toronto 4.1% -1.0% 9.7% 8.4% 6.8% 8.6% 8.2% 10.0% 8.1% 1.8% 6.4%
Washington 0.1% 0.8% 7.3% 8.3% 3.3% 7.1% 5.5% 5.4% -0.8% 11.1% 4.7%
League Average 5.3% 5.1% 5.9% 3.8% 4.8% 3.0% 3.9% 5.0% 3.6% 5.1% 4.6%
5/31/2018 11:22 AM
schwarze
Posts: 37929 (2)
Hall of Famer
1693 74 4 1 1
Hall of Famer
PITCHING - Opponent OPS
Not surprisingly, teams also pitch better at home (with a few exceptions)
.
HOME 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 AVG
---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Arizona 0.717 0.760 0.767 0.719 0.758 0.712 0.731 0.751 0.836 0.710 0.746
Atlanta 0.762 0.687 0.658 0.631 0.675 0.631 0.668 0.703 0.722 0.779 0.692
Baltimore 0.804 0.814 0.775 0.789 0.743 0.753 0.666 0.733 0.727 0.780 0.758
Boston 0.724 0.736 0.727 0.741 0.775 0.687 0.738 0.744 0.749 0.710 0.733
Chicago Cubs 0.702 0.709 0.757 0.727 0.732 0.723 0.674 0.667 0.605 0.719 0.702
Chicago Sox 0.691 0.740 0.736 0.705 0.750 0.711 0.733 0.710 0.731 0.765 0.727
Cincinnati 0.796 0.741 0.719 0.734 0.715 0.690 0.675 0.748 0.783 0.787 0.739
Cleveland 0.721 0.761 0.728 0.713 0.722 0.698 0.683 0.720 0.724 0.669 0.714
Colorado 0.776 0.752 0.737 0.798 0.868 0.760 0.798 0.857 0.821 0.796 0.796
Detroit 0.783 0.725 0.695 0.713 0.691 0.696 0.724 0.736 0.742 0.801 0.731
Houston 0.761 0.759 0.696 0.774 0.714 0.799 0.714 0.657 0.682 0.688 0.724
Kansas City 0.724 0.770 0.759 0.745 0.750 0.708 0.704 0.699 0.734 0.739 0.733
LA Angels 0.720 0.776 0.681 0.674 0.658 0.719 0.638 0.659 0.739 0.702 0.697
LA Dodgers 0.621 0.643 0.661 0.671 0.650 0.663 0.654 0.629 0.623 0.638 0.645
Miami 0.732 0.748 0.713 0.705 0.700 0.689 0.679 0.691 0.683 0.717 0.706
Milwaukee 0.707 0.769 0.767 0.676 0.745 0.754 0.680 0.762 0.735 0.746 0.734
Minnesota 0.697 0.751 0.709 0.753 0.757 0.754 0.764 0.715 0.810 0.793 0.750
NY Mets 0.682 0.719 0.669 0.702 0.694 0.694 0.698 0.655 0.672 0.748 0.693
NY Yankees 0.707 0.729 0.734 0.722 0.700 0.745 0.705 0.705 0.720 0.656 0.712
Oakland 0.681 0.712 0.629 0.650 0.640 0.661 0.635 0.673 0.718 0.741 0.674
Philadelphia 0.722 0.759 0.696 0.620 0.709 0.735 0.689 0.769 0.752 0.776 0.723
Pittsburgh 0.791 0.739 0.754 0.727 0.641 0.610 0.663 0.655 0.761 0.731 0.707
San Diego 0.679 0.663 0.639 0.656 0.676 0.674 0.603 0.717 0.728 0.701 0.674
San Francisco 0.753 0.660 0.651 0.624 0.649 0.690 0.649 0.644 0.688 0.711 0.672
Seattle 0.754 0.685 0.663 0.667 0.626 0.715 0.616 0.689 0.729 0.712 0.686
St. Louis 0.742 0.682 0.656 0.669 0.675 0.635 0.654 0.668 0.703 0.708 0.679
Tampa Bay 0.666 0.708 0.685 0.649 0.609 0.656 0.635 0.674 0.690 0.678 0.665
Texas 0.826 0.757 0.704 0.738 0.736 0.692 0.753 0.752 0.767 0.788 0.751
Toronto 0.665 0.741 0.730 0.780 0.760 0.767 0.727 0.656 0.721 0.756 0.730
Washington 0.773 0.766 0.719 0.685 0.677 0.681 0.633 0.662 0.660 0.708 0.696
League Average 0.729 0.732 0.707 0.705 0.706 0.703 0.686 0.703 0.725 0.732 0.713
.
AWAY 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 AVG
---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Arizona 0.714 0.738 0.810 0.731 0.704 0.749 0.749 0.737 0.763 0.704 0.740
Atlanta 0.754 0.741 0.724 0.712 0.693 0.712 0.696 0.829 0.767 0.774 0.740
Baltimore 0.788 0.844 0.765 0.815 0.692 0.744 0.715 0.744 0.773 0.820 0.770
Boston 0.701 0.779 0.726 0.684 0.742 0.734 0.722 0.758 0.669 0.715 0.723
Chicago Cubs 0.720 0.720 0.704 0.771 0.788 0.712 0.714 0.658 0.663 0.706 0.716
Chicago Sox 0.772 0.738 0.704 0.723 0.696 0.751 0.742 0.756 0.761 0.810 0.745
Cincinnati 0.795 0.761 0.718 0.745 0.675 0.676 0.709 0.748 0.820 0.834 0.748
Cleveland 0.788 0.827 0.789 0.762 0.813 0.718 0.712 0.644 0.696 0.677 0.743
Colorado 0.774 0.713 0.710 0.724 0.782 0.766 0.770 0.767 0.757 0.745 0.751
Detroit 0.799 0.792 0.770 0.722 0.742 0.666 0.722 0.813 0.740 0.821 0.759
Houston 0.775 0.810 0.769 0.766 0.817 0.784 0.724 0.706 0.795 0.753 0.770
Kansas City 0.763 0.758 0.795 0.781 0.775 0.688 0.668 0.722 0.768 0.791 0.751
LA Angels 0.737 0.763 0.783 0.728 0.769 0.754 0.674 0.759 0.810 0.787 0.756
LA Dodgers 0.761 0.705 0.729 0.692 0.700 0.678 0.699 0.711 0.724 0.704 0.710
Miami 0.749 0.733 0.745 0.729 0.754 0.719 0.748 0.748 0.765 0.832 0.752
Milwaukee 0.752 0.821 0.764 0.702 0.735 0.669 0.721 0.738 0.785 0.734 0.742
Minnesota 0.813 0.775 0.758 0.799 0.793 0.787 0.752 0.764 0.801 0.758 0.780
NY Mets 0.777 0.801 0.779 0.784 0.738 0.724 0.698 0.690 0.742 0.840 0.757
NY Yankees 0.760 0.740 0.707 0.719 0.759 0.716 0.695 0.741 0.748 0.705 0.729
Oakland 0.761 0.773 0.756 0.740 0.730 0.695 0.658 0.760 0.770 0.791 0.743
Philadelphia 0.757 0.755 0.739 0.695 0.717 0.758 0.728 0.804 0.794 0.783 0.753
Pittsburgh 0.843 0.840 0.842 0.768 0.765 0.691 0.716 0.689 0.784 0.794 0.773
San Diego 0.806 0.816 0.714 0.724 0.761 0.779 0.732 0.753 0.779 0.849 0.771
San Francisco 0.737 0.712 0.716 0.686 0.763 0.732 0.709 0.757 0.702 0.829 0.734
Seattle 0.815 0.737 0.768 0.728 0.777 0.758 0.687 0.779 0.750 0.797 0.760
St. Louis 0.785 0.730 0.757 0.764 0.727 0.724 0.695 0.685 0.741 0.755 0.736
Tampa Bay 0.763 0.776 0.738 0.724 0.685 0.717 0.690 0.706 0.778 0.746 0.732
Texas 0.807 0.736 0.714 0.655 0.695 0.709 0.776 0.742 0.738 0.748 0.732
Toronto 0.715 0.804 0.733 0.711 0.785 0.733 0.722 0.758 0.684 0.755 0.740
Washington 0.783 0.840 0.763 0.717 0.675 0.686 0.671 0.710 0.694 0.699 0.724
League Average 0.769 0.769 0.750 0.733 0.742 0.724 0.714 0.739 0.752 0.769 0.746
.
DIFFERENCE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 AVG
---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Arizona -0.4% -2.9% 5.6% 1.7% -7.1% 5.2% 2.5% -1.9% -8.7% -0.8% -0.8%
Atlanta -1.0% 7.9% 10.0% 12.8% 2.7% 12.8% 4.2% 17.9% 6.2% -0.6% 7.0%
Baltimore -2.0% 3.7% -1.3% 3.3% -6.9% -1.2% 7.4% 1.5% 6.3% 5.1% 1.5%
Boston -3.2% 5.8% -0.1% -7.7% -4.3% 6.8% -2.2% 1.9% -10.7% 0.7% -1.4%
Chicago Cubs 2.6% 1.6% -7.0% 6.1% 7.7% -1.5% 5.9% -1.3% 9.6% -1.8% 2.0%
Chicago Sox 11.7% -0.3% -4.3% 2.6% -7.2% 5.6% 1.2% 6.5% 4.1% 5.9% 2.5%
Cincinnati -0.1% 2.7% -0.1% 1.5% -5.6% -2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 4.7% 6.0% 1.3%
Cleveland 9.3% 8.7% 8.4% 6.9% 12.6% 2.9% 4.2% -10.6% -3.9% 1.2% 4.0%
Colorado -0.3% -5.2% -3.7% -9.3% -9.9% 0.8% -3.5% -10.5% -7.8% -6.4% -5.7%
Detroit 2.0% 9.2% 10.8% 1.3% 7.4% -4.3% -0.3% 10.5% -0.3% 2.5% 3.8%
Houston 1.8% 6.7% 10.5% -1.0% 14.4% -1.9% 1.4% 7.5% 16.6% 9.4% 6.3%
Kansas City 5.4% -1.6% 4.7% 4.8% 3.3% -2.8% -5.1% 3.3% 4.6% 7.0% 2.4%
LA Angels 2.4% -1.7% 15.0% 8.0% 16.9% 4.9% 5.6% 15.2% 9.6% 12.1% 8.6%
LA Dodgers 22.5% 9.6% 10.3% 3.1% 7.7% 2.3% 6.9% 13.0% 16.2% 10.3% 10.1%
Miami 2.3% -2.0% 4.5% 3.4% 7.7% 4.4% 10.2% 8.2% 12.0% 16.0% 6.6%
Milwaukee 6.4% 6.8% -0.4% 3.8% -1.3% -11.3% 6.0% -3.1% 6.8% -1.6% 1.1%
Minnesota 16.6% 3.2% 6.9% 6.1% 4.8% 4.4% -1.6% 6.9% -1.1% -4.4% 4.0%
NY Mets 13.9% 11.4% 16.4% 11.7% 6.3% 4.3% 0.0% 5.3% 10.4% 12.3% 9.2%
NY Yankees 7.5% 1.5% -3.7% -0.4% 8.4% -3.9% -1.4% 5.1% 3.9% 7.5% 2.3%
Oakland 11.7% 8.6% 20.2% 13.8% 14.1% 5.1% 3.6% 12.9% 7.2% 6.7% 10.3%
Philadelphia 4.8% -0.5% 6.2% 12.1% 1.1% 3.1% 5.7% 4.6% 5.6% 0.9% 4.2%
Pittsburgh 6.6% 13.7% 11.7% 5.6% 19.3% 13.3% 8.0% 5.2% 3.0% 8.6% 9.3%
San Diego 18.7% 23.1% 11.7% 10.4% 12.6% 15.6% 21.4% 5.0% 7.0% 21.1% 14.5%
San Francisco -2.1% 7.9% 10.0% 9.9% 17.6% 6.1% 9.2% 17.5% 2.0% 16.6% 9.3%
Seattle 8.1% 7.6% 15.8% 9.1% 24.1% 6.0% 11.5% 13.1% 2.9% 11.9% 10.8%
St. Louis 5.8% 7.0% 15.4% 14.2% 7.7% 14.0% 6.3% 2.5% 5.4% 6.6% 8.4%
Tampa Bay 14.6% 9.6% 7.7% 11.6% 12.5% 9.3% 8.7% 4.7% 12.8% 10.0% 10.1%
Texas -2.3% -2.8% 1.4% -11.2% -5.6% 2.5% 3.1% -1.3% -3.8% -5.1% -2.6%
Toronto 7.5% 8.5% 0.4% -8.8% 3.3% -4.4% -0.7% 15.5% -5.1% -0.1% 1.3%
Washington 1.3% 9.7% 6.1% 4.7% -0.3% 0.7% 6.0% 7.3% 5.2% -1.3% 3.9%
League Average 5.5% 5.1% 6.1% 4.0% 5.1% 3.0% 4.1% 5.1% 3.7% 5.1% 4.7%
5/31/2018 11:25 AM
schwarze
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And when you add up the hitting advantage and the pitching advantage, regardless of the park affects, teams always do better at home...
.
HOME Batting-H Batting-A Difference Pitching-H Pitching-A Difference Overall Diff
---------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
Arizona 0.777 0.697 11.4% 0.746 0.740 -0.8% 10.6%
Atlanta 0.725 0.704 3.0% 0.692 0.740 7.0% 10.0%
Baltimore 0.770 0.707 8.8% 0.758 0.770 1.5% 10.4%
Boston 0.807 0.735 9.9% 0.733 0.723 -1.4% 8.5%
Chicago Cubs 0.749 0.711 5.4% 0.702 0.716 2.0% 7.4%
Chicago Sox 0.745 0.706 5.6% 0.727 0.745 2.5% 8.1%
Cincinnati 0.748 0.703 6.4% 0.739 0.748 1.3% 7.7%
Cleveland 0.747 0.723 3.4% 0.714 0.743 4.0% 7.4%
Colorado 0.848 0.678 25.1% 0.796 0.751 -5.7% 19.4%
Detroit 0.793 0.731 8.4% 0.731 0.759 3.8% 12.2%
Houston 0.730 0.702 4.0% 0.724 0.770 6.3% 10.3%
Kansas City 0.732 0.707 3.6% 0.733 0.751 2.4% 6.0%
LA Angels 0.730 0.736 -0.8% 0.697 0.756 8.6% 7.8%
LA Dodgers 0.726 0.728 -0.3% 0.645 0.710 10.1% 9.8%
Miami 0.714 0.711 0.4% 0.706 0.752 6.6% 7.0%
Milwaukee 0.759 0.720 5.4% 0.734 0.742 1.1% 6.5%
Minnesota 0.749 0.707 6.0% 0.750 0.780 4.0% 9.9%
NY Mets 0.707 0.724 -2.4% 0.693 0.757 9.2% 6.8%
NY Yankees 0.786 0.734 7.1% 0.712 0.729 2.3% 9.4%
Oakland 0.717 0.707 1.4% 0.674 0.743 10.3% 11.7%
Philadelphia 0.730 0.706 3.4% 0.723 0.753 4.2% 7.5%
Pittsburgh 0.719 0.698 3.0% 0.707 0.773 9.3% 12.3%
San Diego 0.675 0.692 -2.4% 0.674 0.771 14.5% 12.1%
San Francisco 0.711 0.705 0.8% 0.672 0.734 9.3% 10.1%
Seattle 0.690 0.703 -1.9% 0.686 0.760 10.8% 8.9%
St. Louis 0.752 0.739 1.7% 0.679 0.736 8.4% 10.1%
Tampa Bay 0.732 0.734 -0.3% 0.665 0.732 10.1% 9.8%
Texas 0.797 0.720 10.7% 0.751 0.732 -2.6% 8.1%
Toronto 0.769 0.723 6.4% 0.730 0.740 1.3% 7.7%
Washington 0.744 0.710 4.7% 0.696 0.724 3.9% 8.7%
League Average 0.746 0.713 4.6% 0.713 0.746 4.7% 9.2%
5/31/2018 11:30 AM
PennQuaker
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I would be fine with this if it included home/road splits at the individual player level. Not surprisingly, the home/away splits for many players are significant. For one of many extreme examples, 1999 Larry Walker was .461/.531/.879 at home in Coors but .286/.375/.519 on the road. He was well above average on the road but god-like at home.
5/31/2018 12:07 PM
schwarze
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I think maybe a simple 2.3% bump in home stats should be programmed in for all players (as well as a 2.3% decrease in road stats). So road pitcher vs a home batter works out to 4.6% advantage to the hitter. And a home pitcher vs a road batter works out to a 4.6% advantage to the pitcher. That get's you to 9.2% overall home field advantage.

Using your example, I don't think the actual home/road splits of an individual player should factor into how the sim engine determines any single at bat.
Yes, Larry Walker had huge home splits (mostly due to Colorado) but that doesn't mean he should have those same exaggerated home splits playing in Petco. The park effects will still play a role so it's likely Walker will still do great in Mile High or Coors. He will do better in Coors compared to a visiting player playing in Coors.
5/31/2018 1:14 PM
bagchucker
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please dont ask for change

you're the same guys that wanted dynamic pricing



i don know if you noticed, but the sim is sub .500 at home



do you really want these donkeys to carry another load
5/31/2018 1:46 PM
toddcommish
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Posted by schwarze on 5/31/2018 1:16:00 PM (view original):
I think maybe a simple 2.3% bump in home stats should be programmed in for all players (as well as a 2.3% decrease in road stats). So road pitcher vs a home batter works out to 4.6% advantage to the hitter. And a home pitcher vs a road batter works out to a 4.6% advantage to the pitcher. That get's you to 9.2% overall home field advantage.

Using your example, I don't think the actual home/road splits of an individual player should factor into how the sim engine determines any single at bat.
Yes, Larry Walker had huge home splits (mostly due to Colorado) but that doesn't mean he should have those same exaggerated home splits playing in Petco. The park effects will still play a role so it's likely Walker will still do great in Mile High or Coors. He will do better in Coors compared to a visiting player playing in Coors.
One possible issue with this is when multiple teams are using the same ballpark. Using "home field" for Larry Walker in Coors as an example... does that mean if he plays a "road game" which happens to be in Coors, he will suddenly become worse?
5/31/2018 1:56 PM
bagchucker
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well he's already doubly better
5/31/2018 2:04 PM
schwarze
Posts: 37929 (2)
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There was nothing wrong with the dynamic pricing "concept". The problem was that they screwed up the application of the concept. It's pretty obvious to most people that are paying attention that they are incorrectly applying the inception-to-date usage rate (instead of the since-last-update usage rate) to every pricing update, so the same guys get the max bump in salaries every single time. If and when they ever investigate this thoroughly, they will discover the mistake and hopefully fix it.

You can also argue other pricing update issues such as what subset of leagues should be included in the usage formula, but that is secondary to fixing the main problem.

So yes, I get your argument that they could easily screw up a potential home field advantage program update. Still, if they don't work on improving the product, they will continue to lose users and the site will eventually die off.
5/31/2018 3:08 PM
ozomatli
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Posted by toddcommish on 5/31/2018 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by schwarze on 5/31/2018 1:16:00 PM (view original):
I think maybe a simple 2.3% bump in home stats should be programmed in for all players (as well as a 2.3% decrease in road stats). So road pitcher vs a home batter works out to 4.6% advantage to the hitter. And a home pitcher vs a road batter works out to a 4.6% advantage to the pitcher. That get's you to 9.2% overall home field advantage.

Using your example, I don't think the actual home/road splits of an individual player should factor into how the sim engine determines any single at bat.
Yes, Larry Walker had huge home splits (mostly due to Colorado) but that doesn't mean he should have those same exaggerated home splits playing in Petco. The park effects will still play a role so it's likely Walker will still do great in Mile High or Coors. He will do better in Coors compared to a visiting player playing in Coors.
One possible issue with this is when multiple teams are using the same ballpark. Using "home field" for Larry Walker in Coors as an example... does that mean if he plays a "road game" which happens to be in Coors, he will suddenly become worse?
Real life home field advantage likely has less to do with the field itself and more to do with being home rather than traveling.
5/31/2018 3:29 PM
bronxcheer
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6 hour train rides and carry yer own luggage vs. private jets?
5/31/2018 3:53 PM
PennQuaker
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Player performance is clearly influenced by home park so I'm OK with reflecting that in player pricing and performance. I'm a lot less certain that a blanket adjustment to favor home teams and/or hurt road teams is appropriate.
6/1/2018 12:03 PM
schwarze
Posts: 37929 (2)
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There is zero home field advantage in the sim. I'm just trying to make the sim more like real life.

I was recently looking at the WIS Championship results from 2015, round 2. These are supposedly the best of the best and would know how to choose a ballpark to fit their team.

The overall round 2 home record was 5786-5882 (.496). In reviewing the playoff results, there is almost zero correlation between W-L record and playoff success. Three of the top four winning teams in that tournament (105, 101, 99 wins) lost in the first round to much worse teams (87, 82, 86 wins). And this isn't just cherry picking... this happens all the time. It's been a running joke for years, that if you are a 100-win team and are playing an 80-something win team, you have no chance.

Home field advantage is supposed to mean something. It's more than just the park effects. The data above (10 years worth of MLB data!) shows that nearly every team hits better at home AND pitches better at home, regardless of the park effects. By ignoring this in the sim, we are ignoring an important part of the game. I'm not sure why anybody would be opposed to making the sim more realistic (which also has the added benefit of rewarding playoff teams that perform well in the regular season).

By the way, in one league that I am in (MLB121542), the road teams are currently 15-1 in the playoffs.
6/1/2018 4:43 PM (edited)
crazystengel
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Excellent posts, schwarze. Agree with you 100%.
6/1/2018 4:46 PM
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