74% is not 100%.

How do you know that 74% favorites are not willing 74% of the time? Which would mean that it's working EXACTLY as it's supposed to.

People only tend to post when they lose as a 74% favorite because they're ****** or disappointed. But few people are posting when they win as a 74% favorite because it just seems normal and expected, no big deal.

"But something has to be done about the apparent massive skew toward the underdog."

It's apparent, not actual. I just lost a 75/25 as well but I also won a 63/37 both times I was the favorite.. It happens.

I think the conversation here is if it SHOULD happen. Losing 60/40 is a lot easier to stomach than 75/25.

I've personally won on a 13% roll and I thought it was laughable and stupid. All it did was **** off and annoy the other guys I beat.

Perhaps, the threshold for what constitutes "high" should be raised. Is 25% really "high" interest? The perception of outrageous dice rolls, massive skews towards the underdog, etc., would be eliminated if the minimum to get beyond "moderate" were increased.

25% isn’t “high interest”. That’s not what the odds represent. The odds are just the odds. 1 in 4 shot, based on the effort credit amassed.

A team that gets to “high” on the considering list - which really represents the team’s effort credit, not the recruit’s interest - has done enough to be in signing range. It’s a mistake to think of a team in signing range like an “underdog”. 25% means they’ll win 1 in every 4 battles. There is no massive skew, there is only small sample size.

Pallas has had the worst luck I've ever seen it's laughable I can corroborate his claims he's never won a roll. Wooden world for him is just brutal.

Im someone on the other side, I've won so many 60+ rolls the past 7 years I've had 1-2 players I don't even need at my schools.

Edit: Went back through my database and I've won my last 7 rolls in Wooden. 5 we're VH-H and 2 more VH-H-H. Although I've been at 50% or greater for all of them it's a 4% chance I won all of them.

Cub, go back and check your notes. No one wins "dice rolls" when you are above 50%.

Pallas it can turn around.

With my LSU team in Allen I lost every battle my first three seasons. 0 for 9 as a favorite. Plus 0 for 4 as a percentage dog. The only recruits I landed were of the 100% to 0 variety. Those #150 PG and #156 PG's I landed can only take you so far. When the percentages were factored in, the odds were close to 30,000 to 1 of that happening. I wonder if the new books in Delaware would take that bet.

But then came season 4. I actually won twice as a favorite, and even once as a 63-37% dog. Only losing a 55-45 flip.

However, it appears the recruit jinx may have moved. I've lost three players to injuries in the first 9 games.

Posted by shoe3 on 6/8/2018 8:41:00 AM (view original):
25% isn’t “high interest”. That’s not what the odds represent. The odds are just the odds. 1 in 4 shot, based on the effort credit amassed.

A team that gets to “high” on the considering list - which really represents the team’s effort credit, not the recruit’s interest - has done enough to be in signing range. It’s a mistake to think of a team in signing range like an “underdog”. 25% means they’ll win 1 in every 4 battles. There is no massive skew, there is only small sample size.

Forget it. That's not what I was driving at but no matter.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 6/8/2018 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Cub, go back and check your notes. No one wins "dice rolls" when you are above 50%.

This is actually crazy of my 22 battles in this game only 3 have gone away from the favorite, I lost a 74-26, lost a 58-42, and won a 21-24-55. In Iba I'm 3-11, in Wooden I'm 7-1.

"But something has to be done about the apparent massive skew toward the underdog"

Don't even know how to respond to this sentence. The massive skew is actually towards the favorite by Seble stretching the odds.

And if the snowflakes can't stomach seeing the %s after the battle, here's a hint....don't click on the recruit page and you won't have to see it.

PS - and listen to shoe....once again I have to agree with him.

“listen to shoe....once again I have to agree with him.”

Twice in a week, the end is surely near!

Posted by cubcub113 on 6/8/2018 9:24:00 AM (view original):
Pallas has had the worst luck I've ever seen it's laughable I can corroborate his claims he's never won a roll. Wooden world for him is just brutal.

Im someone on the other side, I've won so many 60+ rolls the past 7 years I've had 1-2 players I don't even need at my schools.

Edit: Went back through my database and I've won my last 7 rolls in Wooden. 5 we're VH-H and 2 more VH-H-H. Although I've been at 50% or greater for all of them it's a 4% chance I won all of them.

Rolls can be frustrating and it can destroy a rebuild like it did when I was in Alabama Tark. I could not get a player to sign. I dropped the team, since then it's pretty even. So when you have more than one D1 team (i have two), you make up for bad luck but it's all possible one of your team is cursed and the other one is blessed while you have the same strategy. Be patient, it should turn around don't make the same mistake I made. Cause rebuilding is a pain in 3.0... you want to keep at it once you have put your team out of misery.

so many coaches claim they lose every battle...you'd think no one ever signed a player in this game.

really, with a straight face you're going to say you'd rather have 25% odds than 75%? i don't even know what to say to that