We have 72 confirmed owners (with the majority of GCs purchased), so I went ahead and calculated the owner rankings. The complex formula used is based on a combination of past tournament performance (more recent tournaments get more weight), historical WIS stats, and a new wrinkle -- recency (how you have performed on WIS since your last tournament appearance, relative to your overall historical averages). Your ranking here is also your team ID which will be used to assign you to your league (note that league numbers are not yet available -- a sitemail will be sent out when they are).

Rank	Owner________	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
1	brianjw								1	2	1	6	2		1
2	discodemo								5	6	4	2	3	4	5
3	rbow923						5	1	2	44	3	12	9	16	9
4	schwarze	5	14	7	5	5	3	11	9	8	5	4	27	12	4
5	ozomatli			45									29	9	3
6	jbohrman							58		5	14	3	4	6	21
7	buddhagamer								3	7	35	14	20	13	10
8	mildnhazy	4	4	30	32	13	7	12	11	1	7	17	12	5	8
9	jfranco77					1	29	9	60	10	22	38	68	7	6
10	jmissirlis											5	11		26
11	dougpalm								20	3	17	15	13	65	7
12	shaybee	2	3	18			45	5	27	12	26
13	bighooze							31	15	18	34	30	27	17	16
14	Fusion27s											48	41	22	12
15	homiealiens				6	7	61
16	justinlee_24										16	36	7	18	32
17	crystalao									29	18	20	29	3	53
18	mllama54						36	53	36	35	47	22	61	25	20
19	markeking	29	10	41	24	20	18	37	61	42	15	57	21	24	49
20	mdc2276
21	dippedncrack							34	29	42
22	calhoop	41	7	33	20	24	15	16	58	25	90	24	35	68	11
23	redcped														46
24	cstrohmier		13	35	22	26	32		58	30	29			42	43
25	newarkwilder	64	15	10	18	19	27	42	23	26	21	39		30	55
26	tigerrott													61	29
27	Donburgh								47	39	30	58	23
28	magicdreamer											52	40	39	18
29	mpitt76	37	26	19	29	8	12	29	33	35	12	21	39	32	51
30	ledfoot														33
31	bothways
32	frank_drebin													51	17
33	wink0094														54
34	ejstockman						59	32	22	54	38	37	22	43	58
35	beauchamp			67	48	59	81	35	41	55	13	62	44	50	15
36	odalisgagne						38	17	39	32	50	50	45	68
37	jjgreen14							59		19	8	19	29	63	47
38	kyleb63										39	43	59		52
39	donaldjtrump
40	NebHusker														37
41	Jdh34							78		56	68	23	61	74	29
42	cubbies84								30	17	31	41	19	57	69
43	Chisock			64	63	60	80	49	79	57	79	80	59	27	39
44	Jtpsops	83	93					46	65	52	78			47	24
45	Humdogs											54	71	92	48
46	DarthDurron									79	73	49	80	59	42
47	sprintracer												75	67
48	The Taint					30	24	30			92	33		79
49	thehuseman											67	38	36	75
50	toddcommish							38	55	80	82	47	74	80	27
51	mick33											55	85	86	35
52	jetscanes	95		44	15	67	16	89							44
53	trd3								78	47	47	66	48	56	61
54	sjh0825				71									37	90
55	zlionsfan	79	40	85	33	56	49	86	73	81	86	92	64	41	59
56	nordawg	46										74	73	80	78
57	thejuice6	88	64	59	36		76	60	61	72	71			71	64
58	gigrant									77	84				80
59	scottharra													82	57
60	hurst47														84
61	thebubbaq					50	94	56	68	89	84	76	67	85	73
62	happyhours	94	56	81	37	58	83	94	94	86				73	67
63	sionnach99
64	mars2010													58
65	loyalcanuck											87
66	Pebo													83
67	npg32433											86	92	87	85
68	garmansouth											82		89	82
69	midknight													74	89
70	deathdealer											96	94	89
71	tridentric					49	58	95	96	66	94	89	89	96	95
72	scthallfan		85	82	60	70					95
73	spoonfed									92				94	94

Hold for aggregate owner stats

Not last! Lol

Yikes. Went from 46 to 22 this year despite a middle-of-the-pack showing the first time. Now the pressure is really on, because advancing is now an expectation.

brianjw ranked 1st? I'm shocked, shocked I tell you.

Posted by redcped on 6/19/2018 9:44:00 AM (view original):
Yikes. Went from 46 to 22 this year despite a middle-of-the-pack showing the first time. Now the pressure is really on, because advancing is now an expectation.

You scored fairly well on most of the stats ranking portion (despite not having a ton of teams) and well enough on the recency portion to bump up your tournament rank. Since you only have one other appearance, the tournament rank portion was not weighted very heavily in your final rank. At one point while I was tinkering, it projected you even a few spots higher.

FYI - dippedncrack has replaced doctorcc, and he has slotted into the 19th spot.

I also noticed a few cases where the formula was applied incorrectly to individual owners. After fixing the bug, here are the changes (they are small)

buddhagamer up one spot
mildnhazy down one spot
jmissirlis up one spot
shaybee down one spot
markeking up one spot
dippedncrack down one spot
newarkwilder up one spot
redcped down one spot
bothways up two spots
XJchessman down two spots
mick33 up one spot
jetscanes down one spot
nordawg up one spot
thejuice6 down one spot
npg32433 up one spot
midknight down one spot

This will not impact league assignments (or anything else).

With two more replacements, the standard deviations updated further. A few ranks moved up or down a spot or two again as a result. This was not a bug as I originally thought but rather just the STDEV rankings changing as a result of replacement owners.

One thing I wish I'd remembered to add to the ranking formula this year was Owner Rating Points / Teams Owned

I was skeptical of Owner Rating as a predictive measure, since it can be skewed in many ways (i.e. owners playing more progressives and having down years). However Rating Points / Teams Owned, with a correlation of .68 compared to actual Tournament Rank so far this year, is by itself almost as predictive as the entire existing formula (correlation of .705).

I can only imagine that it will significantly further improve the predictive accuracy of the ranking formula if/once I include it for next year.

Here is each owner with their Points per Team rank:

Rank___	Owner_____________	Teams_____	Owner Rating_____	Points per Team
1	discodemo	376	114,356	304
2	rbow923	793	222,524	281
3	brianjw	225	56,551	251
4	dougpalm	893	214,131	240
5	bothways	31	6,804	219
6	ozomatli	601	130,998	218
6	shaybee	831	180,747	218
8	jmissirlis	97	18,877	195
9	mdc2276	69	13,194	191
10	jbohrman	283	52,752	186
11	tigerrott	296	51,078	173
12	homiealiens	168	28,068	167
13	jfranco77	965	157,920	164
13	mildnhazy	245	40,158	164
15	schwarze	1103	178,494	162
16	buddhagamer	343	49,981	146
17	bighooze	175	24,347	139
17	crystalao	95	13,211	139
17	Humdogs	426	59,382	139
20	dippedncrack	266	36,791	138
21	NebHusker	78	10,495	135
21	donaldjtrump	292	39,541	135
23	markeking	677	89,821	133
24	ledfoot	58	7,373	127
25	cstrohmier	760	91,696	121
26	mick33	127	14,962	118
27	justinlee_24	107	12,510	117
28	Fusion27s	101	11,651	115
29	newarkwilder	867	99,161	114
30	redcped	84	9,204	110
31	jjgreen14	105	11,225	107
32	wink0094	225	21,602	96
33	cubbies84	190	16,568	87
34	odalisgagne	928	76,974	83
35	mpitt76	362	29,074	80
36	magicdreamer	107	8,341	78
37	kyleb63	112	8,615	77
38	ejstockman	515	38,718	75
39	Donburgh	323	19,058	59
40	frank_drebin	756	41,286	55
41	sprintracer	103	5,594	54
41	sionnach99	188	10,187	54
43	sjh0825	737	38,932	53
44	nordawg	641	30,186	47
45	thehuseman	193	7,700	40
46	DarthDurron	1006	39,101	39
47	mllama54	667	24,817	37
48	hurst47	122	3,868	32
49	toddcommish	311	7,401	24
50	The Taint	762	10,789	14
51	gigrant	1010	11,538	11
52	Chisock	1261	5,251	4
53	thejuice6	1430	-214	0
54	calhoop	1160	-3,190	-3
55	trd3	526	-2,464	-5
56	Jdh34	330	-2,171	-7
57	loyalcanuck	339	-3,957	-12
58	Pebo	195	-3,062	-16
59	zlionsfan	385	-6,659	-17
60	mars2010	139	-2,949	-21
61	garmansouth	160	-4,684	-29
62	thebubbaq	609	-19,434	-32
63	deathdealer	208	-8,460	-41
64	Jtpsops	324	-14,348	-44
65	beauchamp	287	-13,621	-47
66	midknight	1179	-62,152	-53
67	happyhours	1293	-76,398	-59
68	jetscanes	112	-7,141	-64
68	scottharra	120	-7,724	-64
70	npg32433	80	-5,575	-70
71	scthallfan	239	-50,055	-209
72	spoonfed	255	-57,418	-225
73	tridentric	614	-143,986	-235

Note that Owner Ratings listed here were at the time I ran the Pre-Rank formula, before the tournament started

My guess is that the strength of this is due to Owner Rating not only being based on results (i.e. W/L), but also by run differential, which is generally a great measure of a team's worth.

However, unlike run differential alone, Owner Rating controls for blowouts by capping the amount of points you can gain or lose per game, regardless of the score.

I should probably use Games Played rather than Teams, since some teams for most owners are mid-way through the season at all times.

this will be very skewed in favour of owners who play open leagues. For nearly 10 years I only played the WISC - my owner rating is apples vs a lot of other owners's oranges.