Lost 4 flips in a row while up 70-30. Topic

I don't mind losing half of these. But 4 in a row is just dumb. Do you even know what 70% means?
8/15/2018 12:00 AM
Hopefully they weren’t all with the same team!
8/15/2018 12:02 AM
I have question that could have an impact on these rolls...

preferences... are they factored in to the percentages? Or are they factored in at the decision time?

Team A puts in 1000 points worth of effort and has all very bad preferences

Team B puts in 500 points worth of effort and has all very good preferences

is that a 67/33 split (1000/500) and THEN the recruit makes a decision, factoring in the preferences after the fact?

or is that more like a 60/40 or 55/45 possibility? Because the preferences are factored in from the beginning, and give somewhat of an overall boost to Team B because of the preference advantage, and then the decision is made by the recruit?
8/15/2018 4:23 AM
The latter... Preferences modify effort and it's reflected in the %
8/15/2018 7:15 AM
0,81% chances of that happening. I find it dumb Arfy, against these rolls, make battles be vh-vh, hide %
8/15/2018 8:40 AM
Posted by topdogggbm on 8/15/2018 4:23:00 AM (view original):
I have question that could have an impact on these rolls...

preferences... are they factored in to the percentages? Or are they factored in at the decision time?

Team A puts in 1000 points worth of effort and has all very bad preferences

Team B puts in 500 points worth of effort and has all very good preferences

is that a 67/33 split (1000/500) and THEN the recruit makes a decision, factoring in the preferences after the fact?

or is that more like a 60/40 or 55/45 possibility? Because the preferences are factored in from the beginning, and give somewhat of an overall boost to Team B because of the preference advantage, and then the decision is made by the recruit?
The bigger question is why would a kid even consider a school if all his preferences are bad? No matter who many attention points you dump on him, he shouldn't even be considering you IMO.
8/15/2018 12:29 PM
Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topdogggbm on 8/15/2018 4:23:00 AM (view original):
I have question that could have an impact on these rolls...

preferences... are they factored in to the percentages? Or are they factored in at the decision time?

Team A puts in 1000 points worth of effort and has all very bad preferences

Team B puts in 500 points worth of effort and has all very good preferences

is that a 67/33 split (1000/500) and THEN the recruit makes a decision, factoring in the preferences after the fact?

or is that more like a 60/40 or 55/45 possibility? Because the preferences are factored in from the beginning, and give somewhat of an overall boost to Team B because of the preference advantage, and then the decision is made by the recruit?
The bigger question is why would a kid even consider a school if all his preferences are bad? No matter who many attention points you dump on him, he shouldn't even be considering you IMO.
That’s another valid point some of us have been making since beta. Unlock actions with AP, fine. But if preferences are bad, once a team has offered a scholarship, bad preference matches should make attention and effort *reduce* credit, not just make it accumulate more slowly. If I don’t like you, and I keep hearing from you, it’s not going to make me want to sign, it will do the opposite. You’re just annoying me. The only way a recruit should go with a negative preference match is if no one else pursues, IMO.
8/15/2018 12:38 PM (edited)
Let’s say I’m a NYC guard with 3 preferences: I want to play far from home, I want a perimeter based offense, and I want a long time coach. When second year UConn coach comes calling, and I see he’s getting most of his points in the paint, I’m looking at it this way - I’ll think about a scholarship if you prioritize me. But then I want you to leave me alone. I know it’s there if I need it, but we both know you’re not what I’m looking for, ok?

So let’s say a long time PAC-10 coach with a perimeter offense comes calling. UConn should have no shot. I don’t care if UConn promises the moon, invests all possible APs and does all the visits. No shot. But right now, UConn can definitely get in the picture, and arguably end up ahead, because they can do all the visits, and it all accumulates effort credit; and depending on how many open scholarships, it may be too expensive for that PAC-10 coach to do the visits necessary to keep up in a battle he should win HANDS DOWN.
8/15/2018 12:47 PM
Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topdogggbm on 8/15/2018 4:23:00 AM (view original):
I have question that could have an impact on these rolls...

preferences... are they factored in to the percentages? Or are they factored in at the decision time?

Team A puts in 1000 points worth of effort and has all very bad preferences

Team B puts in 500 points worth of effort and has all very good preferences

is that a 67/33 split (1000/500) and THEN the recruit makes a decision, factoring in the preferences after the fact?

or is that more like a 60/40 or 55/45 possibility? Because the preferences are factored in from the beginning, and give somewhat of an overall boost to Team B because of the preference advantage, and then the decision is made by the recruit?
The bigger question is why would a kid even consider a school if all his preferences are bad? No matter who many attention points you dump on him, he shouldn't even be considering you IMO.
Let's say your preferences are

- wants rebuild
- perimeter offense
- motion offense
- press defense

Coach Cal and Kentucky come calling while running a LP focused offense in Flex/M2M, are you going to turn them down to go play at Maine Presque Island because their preferences match?
8/15/2018 12:57 PM
My recollection is that people got mad about preferences being too restrictive. Mad that preferences were randomly blocking some schools from even trying to pursue some recruits. I think the guy who used to always scream like a nut went bonkers about this.

Because of this, I think the Preference factor was softened compared to the original 3.0 Beta.

I think that there's a good balance actually.
8/15/2018 1:04 PM
Posted by Benis on 8/15/2018 12:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topdogggbm on 8/15/2018 4:23:00 AM (view original):
I have question that could have an impact on these rolls...

preferences... are they factored in to the percentages? Or are they factored in at the decision time?

Team A puts in 1000 points worth of effort and has all very bad preferences

Team B puts in 500 points worth of effort and has all very good preferences

is that a 67/33 split (1000/500) and THEN the recruit makes a decision, factoring in the preferences after the fact?

or is that more like a 60/40 or 55/45 possibility? Because the preferences are factored in from the beginning, and give somewhat of an overall boost to Team B because of the preference advantage, and then the decision is made by the recruit?
The bigger question is why would a kid even consider a school if all his preferences are bad? No matter who many attention points you dump on him, he shouldn't even be considering you IMO.
Let's say your preferences are

- wants rebuild
- perimeter offense
- motion offense
- press defense

Coach Cal and Kentucky come calling while running a LP focused offense in Flex/M2M, are you going to turn them down to go play at Maine Presque Island because their preferences match?
This is about preferences, not about prestige and division modifiers.

MPI, no. Vanderbilt, if they match the preferences? Sure. That’s what “preference” means.
8/15/2018 2:40 PM
Posted by npb7768 on 8/15/2018 1:06:00 PM (view original):
My recollection is that people got mad about preferences being too restrictive. Mad that preferences were randomly blocking some schools from even trying to pursue some recruits. I think the guy who used to always scream like a nut went bonkers about this.

Because of this, I think the Preference factor was softened compared to the original 3.0 Beta.

I think that there's a good balance actually.
I don't think this is correct. The only change that happened during the Beta on preferences magnitude was when Seble instituted and then removed a cap on how much preferences would help/hurt you. For example, having 5 Very Goods was the same as 4 Very Goods. Folks thought that was dumb so he removed it.
8/15/2018 3:32 PM
None of this had anything to do with preferences fyi. I was ahead in pref as well on this last one.
8/15/2018 4:36 PM
Posted by Arfy on 8/15/2018 4:36:00 PM (view original):
None of this had anything to do with preferences fyi. I was ahead in pref as well on this last one.
I know. We just took your topic and ran somewhere else with it. Haha
8/15/2018 9:01 PM
Posted by Benis on 8/15/2018 12:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by hulnder on 8/15/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topdogggbm on 8/15/2018 4:23:00 AM (view original):
I have question that could have an impact on these rolls...

preferences... are they factored in to the percentages? Or are they factored in at the decision time?

Team A puts in 1000 points worth of effort and has all very bad preferences

Team B puts in 500 points worth of effort and has all very good preferences

is that a 67/33 split (1000/500) and THEN the recruit makes a decision, factoring in the preferences after the fact?

or is that more like a 60/40 or 55/45 possibility? Because the preferences are factored in from the beginning, and give somewhat of an overall boost to Team B because of the preference advantage, and then the decision is made by the recruit?
The bigger question is why would a kid even consider a school if all his preferences are bad? No matter who many attention points you dump on him, he shouldn't even be considering you IMO.
Let's say your preferences are

- wants rebuild
- perimeter offense
- motion offense
- press defense

Coach Cal and Kentucky come calling while running a LP focused offense in Flex/M2M, are you going to turn them down to go play at Maine Presque Island because their preferences match?
To me.... this answer is yes honestly.

I think the "rebuild" preference is goofy somewhat. But if I want to play for a rebuild, I don't wanna go to UK. Specifically. Because I want to play for a turd apparently. If I wanted to go to UK and play for a title, and a dominant historical team, my preference would say that I want success.

But I don't wanna play for a successful team. I'd prefer to play for Toilet Bowl U.

But I don't think "rebuild" should be a preference we see more that 10 out of 1000 recruits. Because that's not a realistic thing that kids want very often.
8/15/2018 9:05 PM
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