So, only 14 owners participate in round 2?

Posted by mdc2276 on 10/11/2018 9:01:00 PM (view original):
So, only 14 owners participate in round 2?

No. 24 owners take part in Round 2. The actual cutoff will be determined by the amount of points that the 24th place owner has. Playoff points still need to accumulate.

Do points from play-in games count toward the total for the tournament?

Yes. They'll count towards your regular season total.

I'll be offline for the next 6 hours or so but will update and share the final regular season standings when I get back

I believe thebubbaq gets the wildcard in 4A by default, since Donburgh technically has a worse win% after losing his play-in game for the division, but we'll see tonight when more schedules generate.

If that's true, here are the final regular season standings

Pre-Rank	Rank	Owner	Season									Playoffs		Penalty	Total
			65M	90M	100M	110M	130M	255M	Wins	Win%	Last Cycle	Teams	Points
4	1	ozomatli	93	104	89	99	110	99	594	0.611	2-4	6	30		624
1	2	brianjw	98	98	87	93	102	101	579	0.596	3-3	6	30		609
6	3	buddhagamer	99	111	94	91	90	93	578	0.593	6-0	6	30		608
2	4	discodemo	87	98	91	111	104	87	578	0.595	4-2	4	20		598
7	5	mildnhazy	83	103	84	94	107	95	566	0.582	4-2	5	25		591
32	6	wink0094	96	108	86	89	89	97	565	0.581	4-2	5	25		590
8	7	jfranco77	92	95	95	92	95	95	564	0.580	3-3	5	25		589
9	8	jmissirlis	83	106	90	94	83	105	561	0.577	4-2	5	25		586
5	9	jbohrman	77	99	104	93	99	90	562	0.578	4-2	4	20		582
17	10	crystalao	92	101	77	89	90	97	546	0.562	3-3	5	25		571
28	11	mpitt76	95	78	92	84	95	105	549	0.565	2-4	4	20		569
16	12	justinlee_24	93	102	80	94	98	82	549	0.564	4-2	3	15		564
3	13	rbow923	77	100	91	81	93	92	534	0.549	4-2	4	20		554
10	14	dougpalm	84	81	92	97	87	87	528	0.543	3-3	4	20		548
13	15	dippedncrack / schwarze	97	82	68	94	93	89	523	0.538	1-5	3	15		538
35	16	odalisgagne	83	95	94	95	73	75	515	0.529	3-3	3	15		530
30	17	bothways	87	95	81	83	89	84	519	0.534	4-2	2	10		529
20	18	mdc2276	96	66	79	90	100	85	516	0.530	3-3	2	10		526
33	19	ejstockman	80	72	89	101	91	81	514	0.529	1-5	2	10		524
41	19	cubbies84	91	94	89	90	74	76	514	0.529	5-1	2	10		524
44	19	Humdogs	77	67	84	82	102	97	509	0.523	3-3	3	15		524
22	22	redcped	73	89	82	90	91	81	506	0.521	3-3	3	15		521
50	22	mick33	71	91	74	92	90	88	506	0.521	3-3	3	15		521
12	24	bighooze	86	78	80	93	85	82	504	0.518	6-0	3	15		519
40	25	Jdh34	84	82	73	95	92	77	503	0.517	4-2	3	15		518
24	26	newarkwilder	86	88	81	81	79	91	506	0.521	0-6	2	10	2	514
51	26	jetscanes	90	86	87	79	73	79	494	0.508	5-1	4	20		514
48	28	thehuseman	89	68	89	79	87	86	498	0.512	3-3	2	10		508
11	29	shaybee	81	77	82	94	83	85	502	0.516	3-3	1	5		507
38	30	donaldjtrump	62	89	84	72	82	100	489	0.503	5-1	3	15		504
27	31	magicdreamer	97	84	87	83	96	40	487	0.501	4-2	3	15		502
39	32	NebHusker	79	87	77	81	82	88	494	0.508	2-4	1	5		499
36	33	jjgreen14	101	64	80	78	77	93	493	0.507	2-4	2	10	6	497
26	34	Donburgh	82	85	83	65	81	90	486	0.499	2-4	2.5	10		496
49	35	toddcommish	79	81	92	70	88	80	490	0.504	2-4	1	5		495
23	36	cstrohmier	82	85	81	75	77	89	489	0.503	4-2	1	5		494
31	37	frank_drebin	86	78	86	92	59	87	488	0.502	2-4	1	5		493
29	38	ledfoot	84	83	73	82	86	88	496	0.510	3-3	0	0	4	492
18	39	mllama54	93	81	80	67	85	80	486	0.500	4-2	1	5		491
25	40	tigerrott	80	86	80	84	79	76	485	0.499	2-4	0	0		485
59	41	hurst47	77	86	76	76	78	80	473	0.487	2-4	2	10		483
53	42	sjh0825	55	77	91	81	85	83	472	0.485	3-3	2	10		482
66	42	npg32433	90	90	74	61	94	59	468	0.481	1-5	3	15	1	482
46	44	sprintracer	75	72	78	80	102	86	493	0.507	3-3	2	10	23	480
60	44	thebubbaq	80	86	83	78	78	70	475	0.489	3-3	1	5		480
15	46	homiealiens	76	76	72	84	71	89	468	0.481	2-4	1	5		473
19	46	markeking	91	82	74	78	72	76	473	0.486	1-5	0	0		473
61	48	happyhours	89	80	78	77	60	80	464	0.477	5-1	1	5		469
21	49	calhoop	78	84	83	76	86	61	468	0.481	3-3	0	0		468
47	50	The Taint	69	70	77	74	89	83	462	0.475	2-4	1	5		467
54	50	zlionsfan	86	88	76	81	72	59	462	0.475	6-0	1	5		467
65	50	Pebo	88	51	91	75	79	73	457	0.470	5-1	2	10		467
63	53	mars2010	88	82	68	72	84	66	460	0.473	4-2	1	5		465
56	54	thejuice6	79	74	87	78	68	73	459	0.472	3-3	0	0		459
43	55	Jtpsops	86	82	87	87	35	71	448	0.461	3-3	2	10		458
67	55	garmansouth	71	75	84	69	69	80	448	0.461	2-4	2	10		458
68	57	midknight	74	85	82	67	69	75	452	0.465	3-3	1	5		457
37	58	kyleb63	82	87	63	70	80	74	456	0.469	4-2	0	0		456
14	59	Fusion27s	70	64	75	84	77	79	449	0.462	4-2	1	5		454
55	59	nordawg	74	75	80	74	78	73	454	0.467	2-4	0	0		454
34	61	beauchamp	88	61	75	78	65	80	447	0.460	2-4	1	5		452
42	62	Chisock	61	68	82	78	79	81	449	0.461	1-5	0	0		449
57	63	gigrant	77	90	75	70	61	70	443	0.456	4-2	1	5		448
62	64	sionnach99	71	65	85	72	69	82	444	0.457	3-3	0	0		444
52	65	trd3	56	62	69	82	79	78	426	0.438	0-6	0	0		426
64	66	loyalcanuck	79	60	84	66	57	77	423	0.435	4-2	0	0		423
45	67	DarthDurron	73	67	67	78	61	70	416	0.428	3-3	0	0		416
58	68	scottharra	76	83	77	60	73	46	415	0.427	5-1	0	0		415
71	69	scthallfan	67	53	85	65	55	75	400	0.412	2-4	0	0		400
69	70	deathdealer	62	63	64	61	74	74	398	0.409	0-6	0	0		398
72	71	spoonfed	61	40	60	50	52	49	312	0.321	1-5	0	0		312
70	72	tridentric	40	37	44	65	46	70	302	0.311	1-5	0	0		302

And here are the Stdev ranks

Pre-Rank	Rank	Owner	Stdev							Stdev Rank
			65M	90M	100M	110M	130M	255M	Total	65M	90M	100M	110M	130M	255M
4	1	ozomatli	1.04	1.53	0.86	1.59	1.99	1.43	1.99	64	16	87	13	4	24
1	2	brianjw	1.47	1.13	0.64	1.06	1.44	1.59	1.72	19	53	109	61	21	12
6	3	buddhagamer	1.56	2.00	1.39	0.88	0.62	0.95	1.70	15	3	27	82	117	76
2	4	discodemo	0.52	1.13	1.07	2.64	1.58	0.47	1.70	136	53	57	1	14	139
7	5	mildnhazy	0.17	1.47	0.32	1.14	1.78	1.11	1.48	192	20	163	48	8	55
32	6	wink0094	1.30	1.80	0.53	0.70	0.55	1.27	1.46	33	7	131	102	128	35
8	7	jfranco77	0.95	0.93	1.50	0.97	0.96	1.11	1.44	74	78	18	68	72	55
9	8	jmissirlis	0.17	1.67	0.96	1.14	0.14	1.90	1.38	192	11	71	48	197	5
5	9	jbohrman	-0.35	1.20	2.46	1.06	1.23	0.71	1.40	294	43	2	61	39	100
17	10	crystalao	0.95	1.33	-0.43	0.70	0.62	1.27	1.11	74	31	305	102	117	35
28	11	mpitt76	1.21	-0.20	1.18	0.26	0.96	1.90	1.16	42	268	44	176	72	5
16	12	justinlee_24	1.04	1.40	-0.11	1.14	1.17	0.08	1.16	64	26	249	48	47	211
3	13	rbow923	-0.35	1.27	1.07	0.00	0.82	0.87	0.88	294	38	57	232	91	83
10	14	dougpalm	0.26	0.00	1.18	1.41	0.41	0.47	0.77	180	221	44	25	151	139
13	15	dippedncrack / schwarze	1.39	0.07	-1.39	1.14	0.82	0.63	0.68	29	216	394	48	91	114
35	16	odalisgagne	0.17	0.93	1.39	1.23	-0.55	-0.48	0.53	192	78	27	40	324	314
30	17	bothways	0.52	0.93	0.00	0.17	0.55	0.24	0.61	136	78	225	190	128	183
20	18	mdc2276	1.30	-1.00	-0.22	0.79	1.30	0.32	0.55	33	376	274	94	32	168
33	19	ejstockman	-0.09	-0.60	0.86	1.76	0.69	0.00	0.52	245	329	87	9	106	228
41	19	cubbies84	0.87	0.87	0.86	0.79	-0.48	-0.40	0.52	85	84	87	94	317	300
44	19	Humdogs	-0.35	-0.93	0.32	0.08	1.44	1.27	0.42	294	369	163	205	21	35
22	22	redcped	-0.70	0.53	0.11	0.79	0.69	0.00	0.37	344	133	201	94	106	228
50	22	mick33	-0.87	0.67	-0.75	0.97	0.62	0.55	0.37	361	108	347	68	117	125
12	24	bighooze	0.43	-0.20	-0.11	1.06	0.27	0.08	0.33	144	268	249	61	170	211
40	25	Jdh34	0.26	0.07	-0.86	1.23	0.75	-0.32	0.31	180	216	357	40	99	289
24	26	newarkwilder	0.43	0.47	0.00	0.00	-0.14	0.79	0.37	144	142	225	232	255	93
51	26	jetscanes	0.78	0.33	0.64	-0.18	-0.55	-0.16	0.15	97	159	109	266	324	260
48	28	thehuseman	0.69	-0.87	0.86	-0.18	0.41	0.39	0.22	104	359	87	266	151	155
11	29	shaybee	0.00	-0.27	0.11	1.14	0.14	0.32	0.29	231	277	201	48	197	168
38	30	donaldjtrump	-1.65	0.53	0.32	-0.80	0.07	1.51	0.05	405	133	163	351	214	17
27	31	magicdreamer	1.39	0.20	0.64	0.17	1.03	-3.26	0.02	29	188	109	190	67	430
39	32	NebHusker	-0.18	0.40	-0.43	0.00	0.07	0.55	0.15	262	153	305	232	214	125
36	33	jjgreen14	1.74	-1.13	-0.11	-0.27	-0.28	0.95	0.13	10	381	249	279	286	76
26	34	Donburgh	0.08	0.27	0.21	-1.42	0.00	0.71	0.00	208	173	184	397	224	100
49	35	toddcommish	-0.18	0.00	1.18	-0.97	0.48	-0.08	0.07	262	221	44	373	138	239
23	36	cstrohmier	0.08	0.27	0.00	-0.53	-0.28	0.63	0.05	208	173	225	320	286	114
31	37	frank_drebin	0.43	-0.20	0.53	0.97	-1.51	0.47	0.03	144	268	131	68	402	139
29	38	ledfoot	0.26	0.13	-0.86	0.08	0.34	0.55	0.18	180	199	357	205	157	125
18	39	mllama54	1.04	0.00	-0.11	-1.24	0.27	-0.08	0.00	64	221	249	386	170	239
25	40	tigerrott	-0.09	0.33	-0.11	0.26	-0.14	-0.40	-0.02	245	159	249	176	255	300
59	41	hurst47	-0.35	0.33	-0.54	-0.45	-0.21	-0.08	-0.24	294	159	322	311	271	239
53	42	sjh0825	-2.26	-0.27	1.07	0.00	0.27	0.16	-0.26	422	277	57	232	170	195
66	42	npg32433	0.78	0.60	-0.75	-1.77	0.89	-1.75	-0.33	97	123	347	411	81	409
46	44	sprintracer	-0.52	-0.60	-0.32	-0.09	1.44	0.39	0.13	319	329	291	248	21	155
60	44	thebubbaq	-0.09	0.33	0.21	-0.27	-0.21	-0.88	-0.21	245	159	184	279	271	364
15	46	homiealiens	-0.44	-0.33	-0.97	0.26	-0.69	0.63	-0.33	309	293	372	176	343	114
19	46	markeking	0.87	0.07	-0.75	-0.27	-0.62	-0.40	-0.24	85	216	347	279	333	300
61	48	happyhours	0.69	-0.07	-0.32	-0.36	-1.44	-0.08	-0.41	104	237	291	299	400	239
21	49	calhoop	-0.26	0.20	0.21	-0.45	0.34	-1.59	-0.33	276	188	184	311	157	403
47	50	The Taint	-1.04	-0.73	-0.43	-0.62	0.55	0.16	-0.45	377	346	305	335	128	195
54	50	zlionsfan	0.43	0.47	-0.54	0.00	-0.62	-1.75	-0.45	144	142	322	232	333	409
65	50	Pebo	0.61	-2.00	1.07	-0.53	-0.14	-0.64	-0.54	120	419	57	320	255	337
63	53	mars2010	0.61	0.07	-1.39	-0.80	0.20	-1.19	-0.48	120	216	394	351	187	383
56	54	thejuice6	-0.18	-0.47	0.64	-0.27	-0.89	-0.64	-0.50	262	313	109	279	368	337
43	55	Jtpsops	0.43	0.07	0.64	0.53	-3.16	-0.80	-0.70	144	216	109	135	429	350
67	55	garmansouth	-0.87	-0.40	0.32	-1.06	-0.82	-0.08	-0.70	361	303	163	378	354	239
68	57	midknight	-0.61	0.27	0.11	-1.24	-0.82	-0.48	-0.63	331	173	201	386	354	314
37	58	kyleb63	0.08	0.40	-1.93	-0.97	-0.07	-0.56	-0.56	208	153	417	373	238	327
14	59	Fusion27s	-0.96	-1.13	-0.64	0.26	-0.28	-0.16	-0.69	371	381	340	176	286	260
55	59	nordawg	-0.61	-0.40	-0.11	-0.62	-0.21	-0.64	-0.59	331	303	249	335	271	337
34	61	beauchamp	0.61	-1.33	-0.64	-0.27	-1.10	-0.08	-0.72	120	391	340	279	380	239
42	62	Chisock	-1.74	-0.87	0.11	-0.27	-0.14	0.00	-0.69	407	359	201	279	255	228
57	63	gigrant	-0.35	0.60	-0.64	-0.97	-1.37	-0.88	-0.80	294	123	340	373	392	364
62	64	sionnach99	-0.87	-1.07	0.43	-0.80	-0.82	0.08	-0.78	361	379	149	351	354	211
52	65	trd3	-2.17	-1.27	-1.29	0.08	-0.14	-0.24	-1.11	420	388	389	205	255	275
64	66	loyalcanuck	-0.18	-1.40	0.32	-1.33	-1.65	-0.32	-1.17	262	396	163	390	404	289
45	67	DarthDurron	-0.70	-0.93	-1.50	-0.27	-1.37	-0.88	-1.30	344	369	401	279	392	364
58	68	scottharra	-0.44	0.13	-0.43	-1.86	-0.55	-2.78	-1.31	309	199	305	415	324	427
71	69	scthallfan	-1.22	-1.87	0.43	-1.42	-1.79	-0.48	-1.59	385	416	149	397	413	314
69	70	deathdealer	-1.65	-1.20	-1.82	-1.77	-0.48	-0.56	-1.63	405	384	414	411	317	327
72	71	spoonfed	-1.74	-2.73	-2.25	-2.74	-1.99	-2.54	-3.22	407	425	421	426	418	424
70	72	tridentric	-3.56	-2.93	-3.96	-1.42	-2.40	-0.88	-3.40	431	428	432	397	423	364

And here are some correlations

Metric One___	Metric Two_______	All____	65M____	90M____	100M____	110M____	130M____	255M
Stdev Rank	Tournament Rank	n/a	0.592	0.691	0.537	0.782	0.757	0.719
Wins	Tournament Rank	n/a	0.570	0.702	0.541	0.766	0.719	0.637
Pre-Rank	Stdev Rank	0.759	0.463	0.527	0.317	0.720	0.589	0.625
Pre-Rank	Wins	0.758	0.507	0.576	0.382	0.541	0.539	0.589
Pre-Rank	Tournament Rank	0.743	0.483	0.573	0.378	0.718	0.578	0.545

Posted by ozomatli on 10/12/2018 6:54:00 PM (view original):
And here are some correlations

Metric One___	Metric Two_______	All____	65M____	90M____	100M____	110M____	130M____	255M
Stdev Rank	Tournament Rank	n/a	0.592	0.691	0.537	0.782	0.757	0.719
Wins	Tournament Rank	n/a	0.570	0.702	0.541	0.766	0.719	0.637
Pre-Rank	Stdev Rank	0.759	0.463	0.527	0.317	0.720	0.589	0.625
Pre-Rank	Wins	0.758	0.507	0.576	0.382	0.541	0.539	0.589
Pre-Rank	Tournament Rank	0.743	0.483	0.573	0.378	0.718	0.578	0.545

Can you please explain how to read this table?

Sure. Basically, it evaluates the relationship between the two metrics listed, at the given salary cap (or overall with "All"). The value is expressed between 0 and 1.

A number closer to 1 indicates that a stronger relationship (you can think of this as "as Pre-Rank goes down, Tournament Rank is likely to go down as well"), while a number closer to 0 indicates a weaker (or barely existent) relationship. While there's no set cutoffs, a value under .3 is generally considered weak, while a value over .7 is generally seen as strongly related.

From this, we can get some interesting insights. So, for example, the league where Pre-Rank is most closely related to wins in that league was the 255M league, and the league where it was least related to wins was the 100M league. Another example is that we can determine that wins in the 110M league had the strongest relationship with overall tournament rank, while the weakest was again the 100M league.

Overall, we see a trend where Pre-Rank did have strong predictive power on success in the tournament, but had the least influence on the 100M league, where success was less related to pre-tournament indicators. This makes sense since it is also the league that saw the least variance (in terms of win totals) between the best and worst teams, but is still interesting in its own right since, arguably, the 110M league was more research-intensive.

For context, the correlation between Pre-Rank and Tournament Rank last year was around .710. So, the tweaks I made to the formula seem to have slightly improved it.

Posted by ozomatli on 10/12/2018 6:40:00 PM (view original):
I believe thebubbaq gets the wildcard in 4A by default, since Donburgh technically has a worse win% after losing his play-in game for the division, but we'll see tonight when more schedules generate.

I’m pretty sure it doesn’t work that way. Not in WIS nor in MLB.

Posted by contrarian23 on 10/12/2018 8:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 10/12/2018 6:40:00 PM (view original):
I believe thebubbaq gets the wildcard in 4A by default, since Donburgh technically has a worse win% after losing his play-in game for the division, but we'll see tonight when more schedules generate.

I’m pretty sure it doesn’t work that way. Not in WIS nor in MLB.

I agree about real life, but I'm pretty sure I've seen it happen that way in the sim a few times (and was surprised by it)

How does playoff scoring work?