Playing time is what determines (ultimately) what kind of player he will be. If you give good minutes (2000+) and a category goes up 5-7 points, I consider it to be average potential and I'll probably cut the player's minutes the next season and drop them from the roster when the contract runs out. However, if you are lucky enough to find that player that grows in key categories by 10+ points (like shooting) or has massive increases in spd, str, agi, sta, then you have a potential stud on your hands that could touch 75-80+ OVR when they top out. The only way you'll know is to give that new young one serious PT in their first season.
For me, unless I'm just filling a backup spot like a 2nd GK, I only sign 18yr old players with the intention of playing them to see what they got. The only exception is if I think my team is capable of winning the league title. Then, I'm probably not igning young players or I'll do what damag says and try to pick back up some of what they missed out on in future seasons.