This will be the thread to document the 6th annual Blue Earth Classic, held in Mankato, MN and named after Mankato’s county and the river that runs nearby. The tournament will run games 5-9. We’ll try to rotate some of the better teams into the tournament each season, and hopefully showcasing these strong teams can be a source of pride and competitiveness for conferences with a participating team. Schools in the tournament aren’t just in it for themselves, but they also represent their conference.

As always, guest commentary and contributions (see season 104) are always welcomed and encouraged.


SCHEDULE
Game #5:
S Illinois Edwardsville @ Augustana (SD)
Tiffin @ West Ga
San Francisco St @ Texas A&M Kingsville

Game #6:
Augustana (SD) @ San Francisco St
West Ga @ S Illinois Edwardsville
Tiffin @ Texas A&M Kingsville

Game #7:
Texas A&M Kingsville @ Augustana (SD)
West Ga @ San Francisco St
S Illinois Edwardsville @ Tiffin

Game #8:
Augustana (SD) @ Tiffin
Texas A&M Kingsville @ West Ga
San Francisco St @ S Illinois Edwardsville

Game #9:
West Ga @ Augustana (SD)
Tiffin @ San Francisco St
Texas A&M Kingsville @ S Illinois Edwardsville



RANKINGS:
PS Team Current
#3 Tiffin #1
#5 S Illinois, Edwardsville #24
#10 San Francisco St. #12
#16 Texas A&M, Kingsville NR
#20 West Georgia #21
NR Augustana NR

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Tiffin - Bryan Hoffman, SG, 3^rd Team All American
On a team with 5 freshman, Hoffman and fellow guard Calvin Charsky lead a perimeter attack that keeps defenses worried about a barrage of 3’s and opens up C Justin Coyle in the post. All are averaging 14 or more points a game. While Charsky’s elite from the outside (97), what makes Hoffman special is that he is a terrific guard driving (59) or from the outside (98). With solid all-around skills (ATH 78, SP 80, DEF 71), Hoffman also has great success from the line (B rating), shooting at an .867 clip so far this season.

S. Illinois, Edwardsville - Andrew Moses, PF
On a squad that doesn’t have a lot of outside scoring ability, PF Andrew Moses has stepped up to become the primary threat from the post (86), averaging nearly 20 pts a game. Moses also leads an exceptionally strong rebounding squad with 6.4 boards a game (88 rating). What makes Moses dangerous against other elite competition are two other factors. One, he is quite fast (52) for a PF. The other is that he is a solid all-around player with no weaknesses for the PF position.

San Francisco St. - David McCleery, C, Honorable Mention
While senior guard Samuel Blue is tearing up opposition and averaging over 20 points a game, and Edward Sutton has the kind of talent to garner 1^st Team All-American honors, David McCleery has been a real difference maker so far. Averaging 14.8 points and a team-leading 9.5 rebounds a game, McCleery has also hit 21 of 22 free throws this season. Elite LP (100) and RB (100) skills enable McCleery to turn an otherwise average skillset into the type of player that opponents have to game plan for, even with other elite teammates like Blue and Sutton.

Texas A&M, Kingsville - Johnny Washington, PG
Leading the team in pts per game (14.3), assists (4.0) and steals (1.8), Washington’s senior presence at the Point Guard position is critical to this Kingsville squad. Washington starts off with good speed (87) and excellent PG skills, being able to both handle the ball (84) and distribute the ball (79). Adding in his combo of post and perimeter skills (28 & 80), it is enough to make him a threat. While his defense is good but not dominant (68), the 68 endurance might be the biggest potential problem to keep him in the game as he also leads the team in fouls committed.

West Georgia - Billy Ahart, PG
While I could have picked either Ahart or Dana Lawrence, what makes West Georgia unique is that their two top scorers are point guards off the bench, both averaging 12 or more point a game. While Ahart is the slowest of the West Georgia guards and often players SF, he is fast for a SF (67). In addition, he has great passing skills for a Point (93). The combination of athleticism (77) and stamina (91) helps keep Ahart effective, especially off the bench where he often matches up with an opponent’s second team and showcases his elite perimeter skills (90).

St. Augustana - Anthony Cannon, SG
In typical form for At. Augustana, the team is led by an elite scorer that tops the league lists and should eventually have a shot to climb the schools scoring list. In Cannon’s case, he did not amass many points in his first two seasons, he is fourth in D2 averaging 25 points a game so far this season. While Cannon is on the slow side for a guard (56) and has mostly an average skillset outside of scoring categories (85- perimeter, 40 – post), the way he is used keeps him as a priority for the defense and opens up other teammates. The potential issue with his high offensive allocation is the low shooting pct, just below 40%.

This season’s field has 5 combined titles, just at D2 Naismith. We have 5 of the teams that were in the pre-season top 20. In the first 5 seasons of the Classic, 3 participants won the NT, including last season. While we have generally had teams in the tournament for the first time in over the first 5 seasons with a couple of exceptions, this seasons field has 5 teams returning to the tournament.

Tiffin – In a self-proclaimed rebuild year (I swear), #1 Tiffin represents the newly dominant North American Athletic Association. Entering his 15^th season at Tiffin, BergPride has turned the program into one of the top schools in Naismith, going to the title game 4 times in the last 8 seasons, winning 2 titles. BP also has Tiffin ranked #2 in the dynasty rankings, not far behind the 1-spot. Four times in the last six years, Tiffin has won 30 or more games. Six times in the last nine seasons, Tiffin has finished the season ranked in the top 5. This is their second appearance in the Classic and they will be one of the favorites here and later this season in the NT.

S. Illinois, Edwardsville – Representing the elite GLV Conference, S Illinois, Edwardsville, entering the season at #5, is also making their second appearance in the Classic. This will be the 24^th season at Edwardsville for bhbum, who after stints at other schools, including D1 Iowa, has collected over 1400 wins in Naismith. In addition to winning the title in season 94, Edwardsville has made it to five F4’s in the last dozen seasons. Additionally, in the a very tough GLV conference, bhbum’s squad has turned it on in recent seasons winning 5 of 6 CT’s. As always, a bhbum team is always a threat to win a tournament like the Classic or make another F4 run and this season is no different.

San Francisco St. – Also participating in the Blue Earth Classic for the second time (some of you Cal CAA folks should check your site mail by the way), San Francisco St enters the season with a top 10 team that has won at least 20 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons, three of which resulted in S16 appearances. Currently bandit13 is nearing 900 victories in Naismith. After stints at D3 Averett in which he reached the title game and D2 Eckerd, bandit is now entering his 32nd season at San Francisco St. on a team that has been on the rise in the competitive Cal CAA, where they won the CT 3 seasons ago and look to add another this season, as well as a deep NT run.

Texas A&M, Kingsville – Making their first appearance in the Classic and hailing from the Lone Star Conference, kevodaphenom’s team enters the season ranked #16 and poised to threaten the veterans of the Classic as this season’s lone first-time participant. Having coached at Kingsville 8 full seasons, kevodaphenom has reached the NT the last 6 seasons and has made it as far as the S16 in three of those seasons. During those seasons, Kingsville has averaged 26 wins and has won the Heartland CT the last three seasons. Outside of Naismith, kevodaphenom has won the HD titles. Despite a couple of early season losses to tough teams, look for Kingsville to be a contender in the Classic and go further in the NT than they ever have in their history (S16 under kevodaphenom is the longest NT run in school history).

West Georgia – One of the participants in the inaugural Blue Earth Classic in which they went 4-1 against a very tough field of former NT champs, arfy’s West Georgia squad returns with a ranked, but certainly underrated team, starting the season at #20. With titles in seasons 100 & 104, you might think West Ga and their 9 upperclassmen are on track for another this season. While having 2 titles in Naismith, Arfy has been one of the better coaches across worlds and divisions in HD, collecting 14 titles overall. With 16 complete seasons under his belt, West Ga has now been to 13 straight NT’s, all of which have been 24-win seasons, and all but one season ended with West Georgia ranked. Eight of those seasons finished with West Ga in the top 10.

St. Augustana – Representing the host North Central Conference, coachcjinatl also is participating in the Blue Earth Classic for the second time. Augustana has embraced the sleeper/underdog role in this tournament, as sometimes hosts are inclined to do. Coachcjinatl a few seasons back returned from an extended break from HD and has an NT title from his earlier stint. Now with 15 seasons under his belt, St. Augustana is challenging other programs in the tough North Central and has begun making the NT with some regularity, 2 of the last 3 seasons. In addition, 4 seasons ago St. Augustana won the PI.




ROUND ONE
#24 S Illinois Edwardsville -8 (0-0) @ Augustana (0-0)
#1 Tiffin (0-0) -10 @ #21 West Ga (0-0)
#12 San Francisco St (0-0) -3 @ Texas A&M, Kingsville (0-0)

"rebuild year" I really didn't think we would play this well without the guard play I had the couple seasons prior to this. But hey, I'll take it :P

We played Bergpride and Tiffin last night. And he put on his usual display against me. I believe I am now 0-5 lifetime in the world against him. I'm not sure anyone across worlds has dominated me like that. GG Berg.

And awesome previews Long!

Posted by Arfy on 1/10/2019 8:05:00 AM (view original):
We played Bergpride and Tiffin last night. And he put on his usual display against me. I believe I am now 0-5 lifetime in the world against him. I'm not sure anyone across worlds has dominated me like that. GG Berg.

Sometimes there are just coaches you always struggle against. For me it's Warleagle, I play bad against him even with my best teams.

good game Arfy!

STANDINGS
S Illinois Edwardsville 1-0
Tiffin 1-0
Texas A&M, Kingsville 1-0
San Francisco St 0-1
West Ga 0-1
Augustana 0-1

ROUND ONE RESULTS

S Illinois, Edwardsville 86 @ Augustana 46

Key Stat: The shooting percentage differential was about as large as happens in HD. SIUE’s defense was relentless, holding Augustana to .263 from the floor and under 20% in the second half. On the other hand, Edwardsville was rolling on all cylinders offensively, posting a .659 mark, while only attempting three 3-pointers.
Key Moment: SIUE wrapped this up in the first half, going into halftime leading by 23. Midway through the first, Augustana was up by 1, when Edwardsville went on a 23-5 run over about a 6-minute period to establish a commanding lead.
Key Performance: Getting POG honors, PF Andrew Moses set the tone, hitting close to two-thirds of his shots and collecting 23 points.


Tiffin 90 @ West Ga 80

Key Stat: Despite a 10-point margin, this game was not decided until the last couple of minutes. Notably, Tiffin overcame deficits in assist turnover ratio (14:21 for Tiffin, 16:14 for West Ga) and fewer shots from the floor (51 to 66).
Key Moment: With 3 minutes remaining, West Ga trailed by 2. Tiffin then went on a 10-2 run over a 2.5-minute period to wrap things up, which started by hitting 3 straight shots from the floor on 3 possessions and forcing West Ga to begin fouling.
Key Performance: Where one of West Ga’s advantages is guard play off the bench, it was Tiffin’s guard Calvin Charsky performance off the bench that was they key. In winning POG, he added 22 points and went 11 of 12 from the line, getting West Ga guards into foul trouble.


San Francisco St 57 @ Texas A&M, Kingsville 74

Key Stat: Texas A&M, Kingsville won the game by establishing a 19-point halftime lead. Behind that was San Francisco St’s poor free throw shooting, going 2 of 11over the first 20 minutes, contrasted by going 15 of 17 in the second half. Jekyll meet Hyde.
Key Moment: Midway through the first, San Francisco St was down by 3 when the wheels came off, and Kingsville went on a 17-2 run, to create a lead San Francisco never really challenged the rest of the way.
Key Performance: In a game in which no starter on either squad scored double-digits, A&M’s forward Edward Sutton played 30 minutes across both forward positions while chipping in time at point guard as well to register 17 points and get named POG.

ROUND TWO
Augustana (0-1) +10 @ #22 San Francisco St (0-1)
West Ga (0-1) +1 @ #15 S Illinois Edwardsville (1-0)
#1 Tiffin (1-0) -11 @ #21 Texas A&M Kingsville (1-0)




Tonight, we get an early showcase game with #1 Tiffin traveling to #21 Texas A&M Kingsville to battle for an early 2-0 edge in the Classic. Not only does the winner tonight have an early jump in the standings, but they also get a key tie-breaker. Vegas has much respect for the rebuild going on in Tiffin, giving them an 11-point edge on the road. Trying to keep pace is #15 S Illinois Edwardsville who will try to also move to 2-0 as they host West Ga team coming off a close loss to Tiffin and who is looking to get back into contention with a win. Odds-makers slightly favor the Edwardsville squad, making them a 1-point favorite. #22 San Francisco St. comes in as a 10-point favorite as they host the host school, Augustana. Both schools look to avoid the early 0-2 hole.

By the way, I'll try to get tomorrow's results posted early morning. Otherwise it will likely be very late.

STANDINGS
Texas A&M, Kingsville 2-0
S Illinois Edwardsville 1-1
Tiffin 1-1
West Ga 1-1
Augustana 1-1
San Francisco St 0-2



ROUND TWO RESULTS

Augustana 80 @ San Francisco St 79

Key Stat: Augustana overcome a 16-point deficit from the line (29 to 13). They did this be having 13 three-pointers to San Francisco’s none, and solid Augustana defense that caused more than twice as many turnovers (17) than assists (8).
Key Moment: Going into the final seconds, Augustana ran out most of the last 30 seconds, despite running a fast break offense, to take the potential game winning shot with just 3 seconds left. While they missed the shot, the foul and one FT made, it gave them a 1-point lead and didn’t leave San Francisco enough time to do anything other than a half-court shot.
Key Performance: Even in fouling out, Augustana’s Anthony Cannon had his most effective shooting night of the year, going 5 of 12 for 16 points. Nathan Finley added more points and was POG but was less effective, going 9 of 24 for 26 points.


West Ga 84 @ S Illinois Edwardsville 75

Key Stat: In a game that was fairly even statistically, a couple of categories show West Ga with an edge. Points off turnovers West Ga outscored SIUE 21 to 11, and they also got more points off the bench, chipping in 10 more points than the Edwardsville bench.
Key Moment: Leading by 5 with 12 ½ minutes to go in the game, West Ga went on a 7-point run and took four minutes off the clock. They eventually extended a lead that was never challenged up to 16 points, and the closest Edwardsville got again was the final 9-point margin.
Key Performance: While Robin Blanc’s 18 points and 4 assists earned POG honors, it was Dana Lawrence off the bench that might have had the greatest impact, also scoring 18 points but going 12 of 13 from the line and getting SIUE guards into foul trouble.


Tiffin 65 @ Texas A&M Kingsville 68

Key Stat: In an all-around tight game, A&M Kingsville gave themselves the edge in subtle ways. They had a clear advantage scoring from the paint, 26-16, which contributed to an edge in second chance points 12-8. They also had a nice advantage in points off turnovers 15-7.
Key Moment: Leading by 3 with 5 ½ minutes remaining, Kingsville meticulously took time off the clock while extending the lead to 9 with less than a minute to go. While Tiffin made the score close at the end, the last few minutes leading to the final minute were what made the difference for Kingsville.
Key Performance: In winning POG, Texas A&M Kingsville’s Johnny Washington put in a very solid all-around performance. In 26 minutes, he had 4 assists, 2 steals, and only had 1 turnover, while his counterpart fouled out. Washington also added 16 points and even 5 rebounds from the Point.



ROUND THREE
#15 Texas A&M Kingsville (2-0) -9 @ Augustana (1-1)
#18 West Ga (1-1) -1 @ San Francisco St (0-2)
#19 S Illinois Edwardsville (1-1) +8 @ #4 Tiffin (1-1)


Last night we saw both double-digit underdogs pull off wins. Two of the 1-0 teams were defeated, and #15 Texas A&M, Kingsville emerged as the lone 2-0 team atop the Classic standings. Tonight, the Kingsville squad travels to Augustana who went from a disappointing 40-point loss to an impressive road victory in one night and will now try to give A&M their first loss. Vegas still likes Texas A&M Kingsville by 9. After #18 West Ga was able to get past a tough SIUE squad in convincing fashion and will now travel to take on San Francisco St, who is trying to get on track and pick up a win. We also have a battle between two F4 regulars when #19 S Illinois Edwardsville goes on the road to take #4 Tiffin. This will be a key Blue Earth game as the loser will be in a 1-2 hole, whereas the winning team will be right in the mix.

(Edited to due my numerous 5AM typos)...

Great stuff!

STANDINGS
Texas A&M, Kingsville 3-0
Tiffin 2-1
West Ga 2-1
S Illinois Edwardsville 1-2
Augustana 1-2
San Francisco St 0-3


ROUND TWO RESULTS

Texas A&M Kingsville 93 @ Augustana 62

Key Stat: The categories jump in this contest. First, as a FB/FCP team, Augustana has to win the assist/turnover battle. In this case, Augustana lost the assist/turnover ratio (10/18) to Texas A&M Kingsville (20/10) by a large margin. Kingsville was also able to draw a lot of fouls, getting Augustana to commit twice as many as Kingsville (30/15).
Key Moment: In the early second, Augustana had cut the A&M lead in half and only trailed by 6. Over the next several minutes, A&M Kingsville went on a 17-6 run to ice the game.
Key Performance: While A&M’s Washington had 7 assists and Mosley had 12 boards off the bench, the POG James Rozar has highly efficient going 9 of 12 and registered a season-high 24 points, twice as many as he has scored in any game this season.


West Ga 85 @ San Francisco St 62

Key Stat: While the shooting pct was similar between the two teams, the defensive effort from West Ga made the difference, getting 18 steals to San Francisco’s 3, forcing 30 turnovers compared to 11, and getting 6 blocks to SF’s 3.
Key Moment: After SF St cut a 13-point halftime lead down to 5 and was startling to make a contest out of it, West Ga responded with an 11-0 run triggered by turnovers, steals, and missed shots that San Francisco St never recovered from.
Key Performance: Again, off the bench, West Ga’s Dana Lawrence put in a key performance, this time winning POG. While putting in a game-high 18 points, more impressively Lawrence collected 7 steals. Worth noting, West Ga’s bench as a whole had 12 steals.


S Illinois Edwardsville 65 @ Tiffin 72

Key Stat: In a tight game, the biggest difference was the perimeter play. Edwardsville went 1 of 7 from behind the arch, while Tiffin was effective going 6 of 15.
Key Moment: Several times in the second half, SIUE was able to cut the Tiffin lead to 4 or 5 points. Every time Tiffin would shut the door. Interestingly, the Tiffin lead the entire second half never got smaller than 4 points and never grew larger than 9 points.
Key Performance: While Tiffin’s Justin Coyle won PG with his 16 points, it was fellow Tiffin post player Joseph Shepardson that might have made the difference. Playing opposite Edwardsville star Andrew Moses in a M2M defense, he forced Moses into 5 turnovers and into foul trouble, while adding game highs in offensive rebounds (5) and total rebounds (9) and going 4 of 6 from the floor to add 11 points.


ROUND FOUR
Augustana (1-2) +27 @ #4 Tiffin (2-1)
#14 Texas A&M Kingsville (3-0) +1 @ #16 West Ga (2-1)
San Francisco St (0-3) +1 @ S Illinois Edwardsville (1-2)



Last night, the annual GLV/NAAA match up helped provide some clarity on how the Classic might shape up this season. NAAA rep Tiffin held off S Illinois Edwardsville to stay in the mix, while Texas A&M Kingsville stayed undefeated. West Ga also put themselves into the conversation with an important road win to set up a hugely critical game this evening.

The key game tonight that everything hinges on at this point is #14 Texas A&M Kingsville @ #16 West Ga. If A&M prevails, it is over, and they clinch the Classic. Even if they lost the last night, the only team that would be able to tie them would be Tiffin, whom Kingsville has the tie-breaker over. However, if West Ga wins, that opens up the floodgates to other possibilities. If Tiffin is also about to win a game in which they are heavily favored in over the North Central spoiler Augustana, that would put us in a 3-way tie, with tie-breakers also cancelling each other out. If that happens, I’ll post the tie-breaker rules (courtesy of hackerhog’s Yarnell Invitational). Vegas likes West Ga at home in a close one.

Not to be forgotten, we have one of the best games among ‘unranked’ teams you’ll see. Every season, inevitably, due to good teams that lose tough games in the Classic, top teams start 1-2 or 0-3 and end up unranked, that eventually make the S16, E8, or even F4. Cal CAA’s San Francisco St @ GLV’s S Illinois Edwardsville is such an instance, featuring the pre-season #5 and #10 teams. Vegas thinks it will be close, favoring Edwardsville at home by 1

As much as I love Kevo. West Georgia is not losing tonight!

Oh snap! Maybe I should have looked at his team before I started trash talking. Now that I look at it, I'm not sure I can overcome that crazy D.

I have a good feeling about tonight, some demons will be exorcised with a win!

STANDINGS
Texas A&M, Kingsville 3-1
Tiffin 3-1
West Ga 3-1
S Illinois Edwardsville 2-2
Augustana 1-3
San Francisco St 0-4

ROUND FOUR RESULTS

Augustana 70 @ Tiffin 102

Key Stat: The Tiffin athleticism helped draw a lot more fouls than they committed against Augustana (33 to 18), which helped a good FT% (.771) extend the Tiffin margin (27 to 12). The high shooting pct (.569) didn’t hurt either.
Key Moment: While Tiffin build a 10-point halftime lead, Augustana could still make it a game at that point with a good start in the second. However, that is when Tiffin caught fire and went on a 16-point run to open the second.
Key Performance: In what has been his best game of the tournament thus far in a POG effort, Tiffin’s Bryan Hoffman poured in 27 points and 4 assists, while his Augustana counterpart, Dennis Hill, fouled out in 16 minutes.


Texas A&M Kingsville 73 @ West Ga 87

Key Stat: The West Ga bench again was a source of strength, outscoring the Texas squad 47 to 20. Other factors in favor of West Ga were a solid FT% (.784) and a positive assist/turnover ratio (+1) compared to A&M (-12).
Key Moment: At the 10-minute mark in the second half, West Ga was holding onto a 4-point lead, when over the next 3 minutes, they went on a 10-point run (8 of the points from the line), giving them a 14-point lead, which was also the final margin.
Key Performance: West Ga’s Dana Lawrence again won POG in another key performance off the bench, adding 20 points in 16 minutes and going 8 of 9 from the line.


San Francisco St 67 @ S Illinois Edwardsville 78

Key Stat: In a game that only saw three 3-pointers attempted all night, SIUE outscored San Francisco St 46 to 30 from the post. The high percentage from the line for Edwardsville (.789) also had a positive impact on the margin, adding 30 points to San Francisco’s 16.
Key Moment: After trailing most of the game and battling against a 14-point halftime deficit, San Francisco St. cut the Edwardsville to 5 with just under 3 minutes to play. However, the next 90 seconds saw SIUE add 6 straight points to build a double-digit lead again going into the final minute.
Key Performance: SIUE’s Franklyn Han had a very solid game in a POG effort, adding a season-high 22 points, grabbing 5 boards and chipping in 3 assists, while going 10 of 11 from the line.


ROUND FIVE
#12 West Ga (3-1) -17 @ Augustana (1-3)
#2 Tiffin (3-1) -21 @ San Francisco St (0-4)
#20 Texas A&M Kingsville (3-1) PickEm @ #22 S Illinois Edwardsville (2-2)


Last night, West Ga’s win over Texas A&M Kingsville keeps the Classic wide open and undetermined for one night. Adding the Tiffin win, it leaves us in a 3-way tie, with all tie-breakers cancelling themselves out. Looking at the original Yarnell rules for tie-breakers, we are using with 1 adjustment. Process is if head-to-head games cancel each other out, you add up the point margin of each win with a cap of 20 (that’s the adjustment by the way). The team with the lowest total is eliminated, and then the H2H winner of the remaining two teams is named champ of the Classic.

Right now, this is how that plays out through 4 games.
Tiffin: 10+7+20 .…………total = 37
West Ga: 9+20+14 ……..total = 43
Kingsville: 17+3+20 …….total = 40

Here’s a breakdown of how the tiebreakers would work to determine the champ. This is the scenario if all three 3-1 teams win tonight. If any lose, it changes everything and likely goes back to a standard H2H tie-breaker. For Texas A&M Kingsville to win, they need both Tiffin and Kingsville to pass the total margin of West Ga, and they would win H2H against Tiffin. For Tiffin to win, they need Kingsville to be eliminated with the lowest point margin and they would win the H2H against West Ga. For West Ga to win, they would need Tiffin to be eliminated through lowest point margin, and they would win H2H against Kingsville. Clear as mud?

That leads us to tonight’s games. All three leaders play on the road this evening. #2 Tiffin goes on the road to take on San Francisco St, #12 West Ga travels to face Augustana, and #20 Texas A&M, Kingsville is hosted by #22 S Illinois, Edwardsville. If any leading team loses, it would very likely eliminate that squad. Beyond that, margins of victory will matter a lot.

Also, I’ll try to get tomorrow’s post done early again. If not, it will be quite late.