By that logic do you think a plus play by a 1B is equivalent to a plus play by a SS? Before seeing this, I’ve assumed plus plays, on average, save a single, while minus plays and errors allow a “single,” so I’ve calculated an adjusted AVG or OPS by adding/subtracting singles to get a better feel for a player’s overall value.

How do you all evaluate players that become DITR during their first season? Lately I seem to be coming across all sorts of players who are 1st or 2nd year DITR's, and I don't know how to realistically project where they can end up.

3rd or 4th year DITR I have no problem evaluating and figuring out where they will end up ratings wise, but can you trust that rookies will get anywhere near their projections?

I've always been the under the impression players could increase their ratings in a particular area by 25 or so, with that being pretty much the most they could improve. Has anybody seen players jump up 30+ points in their ratings? Right now I'm evaluating a guy who projects about 25-30 points higher in each category as a pitcher (even as much as 34). Assuming he is developed properly in the minors for 3-4 years, is there any chance he gets close to those numbers? Or is that just wishful thinking?

I've been very curious about that as well. I've had two guys in the past three seasons who we're drafted as DITR candidates,and ended up becoming DITR the year of their draft. Both scouting projections (from the Amateur Draft screen) we're off the roof, so I was curious to see how accurate they actually would be.

Couldn't figure out how to post from the clipboard, but hopefully these links work.:

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=9321084

JP Nicassio - Season 11 DITR (On my AAA team if link doesn't work)

After 3 cycles into season 13, he's gained 24/23 in hitting splits. This does not count what he gain in his initial season. 21 in glove and 25 in accuracy. For the most part these are still improving about 2 points per cycle, so I would hope this would climb up even further. His more physical traits have improved as well but not quite as much.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=9479668

Marv Demel - Season 12 DITR (A+ team if link doesn't work)

After 4 cycles into Season 13, he's gained over 10 points on splits/control. I can't see the prior season since it was when he was drafted, but he gained around 4 points on the end of season promotion. So all in all I hope he can progress similarly to Nicassio. Also noticed his stamina improved quite a bit (the physical trait I've noticed that boosts the most), maybe even becoming a potential starter/tweener if it keeps progressing.

I'm really excited to see what both of these guys can reach. I think their makeups and the fact that they had decent stats/made DITR is the first year is huge. For both I would hope they progress in splits/defense/control by more than 30. Hope that helps!

Thanks pray4pro, that defenitely does help! I decided to pass on the pitcher I was looking at and found a deal for 2 pitchers that were easier to project. But this info will be very useful.

I have another question....how long are draft picks able to be signed? The entire season? I have two draft picks that I have not signed yet, we're just a couple weeks past the draft. They are solid prospects but asking for about 3-4x what they are worth. I'm saving my prospect money for a big IFA or two. However if those big IFA's don't come along, then I will go ahead and sign those draft picks so I don't come away empty handed. Will I be able to offer them a deal through the remainder of the season?

^ Yes you have the rights to offer them a deal for the remainder of the season. Just keep in mind they might likely take a look at your offer and sit on it for awhile. So don't leave it too late.

How accurate are my draft projections with my $11 million budget? I have the 1st pick, top two guys I have projected at 97 and 92 overall, not sure what to expect

11 million isn’t very accurate at all. The projections are usually highly optimistic and Overalls of 97 and 92 fit the bill. You are also only seeing a reduced portion of the draft class compared to the max 20 mil.
Some owners would advise you to pick a player who’s not likely to sign, and come back with the comp pick next season and a higher scouting budget.
But it does kind of suck coming away empty handed. You can take your best shot, and not to say you won’t get a good player, but at 11 mil you simply have no idea what any likelihood is.
The one thing you can try to do to read between the lines is look for ratings that are obviously unrealistic with how players are generated. Say a pitcher with 44 Durability and 96 Stamina. Simply doesn’t happen. In the case of position players, you’re probably seeing 99 Durability and Health. Again, not real likely. Look at the player it says is supposed to be a 97, figure out what he might look like if he’s really an 82. That kind of thing.

Lowest IFA scouting budget that's ever still resulted in a BL-regular caliber prospect?

Probably 1 million. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. (I originally put 0 and then remembered you wouldn't see any prospects if you did that.


A better answer is you can probably fluke into a big league prospect with 5 to 10 million in IFA by following the money. By that I mean, anyone who looks good, put out a feeler offer of half a million or so. If other teams are beating out your offer, offer more. if the bidding is getting up into the 8 to 10 million range, chances are you are on to something good............ unless of course the other owner spent the same on IFA and you both are seeing lousy projections. Its a lot more of a gamble.

I go $2M in one of my worlds. I usually end up with a role player or two each season.

In one of my leagues I leave 2 million for IFA scouting, just so I see anyone. Probably get 15-20 prospects a season. Because I have a little prospect money laying around, and I'm not in competition with the guys hoarding 30 million looking for the guaranteed HOFer, and the projections are useless, I actually throw a minimum bid on just about every prospect who shows up. Every now and then I get a somewhat useful player just because no one else was interested.

What's the lowest IFA scouting budget you've ever had that resulted in obtaining an all-star caliber player?

I’ve never had an all star caliber IFA before. In the league damag and I are in the price of poker is just too high

Posted by opie100 on 2/5/2019 4:35:00 PM (view original):
What's the lowest IFA scouting budget you've ever had that resulted in obtaining an all-star caliber player?

14 million. As to what effect the reduction in scouting had, I remember his projections overshot by quite a bit, but he's still a good hitter. I could tell he was worth it (23.1 signing bonus) by the competition for him. And I didn't see the better hitter who came out at the same time. That probably helped me sign him because I was going after the #2 guy while others were presumably chasing the #1.

I've also had a couple of all-stars at 16 million.

Can you release a player who's going to arbitration right before arbitration hearings with no penalty?