Posted by robusk on 4/7/2019 2:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by NotoriousJ on 4/7/2019 2:49:00 PM (view original):
Can you briefly explain minutes-adjusted usage?

It's just something I look at, I don't think any else uses it so it isn't crucial. It's just usage points * minutes/82 * 1.02 / 48

I do this thing where I divide attempts drafted by minutes drafted and then multiply the result by 5 and then by 48 (I suppose just 240 works just as well for this) which gives you an attempts per game average - if that average is not in the 90s or better I start to sweat the individual penalty

Here's the first 6, in most cases through the 5th round. I'll update once the draft is over.

This is my first eval, a lot harder than I thought!

NotoriusJ: LeBron (1); Tyson Chandler (2), Clint Capella (3), Clifford Ray (4), Walt Frazier (5): Can’t go wrong with LeBron #1 in this format. Great efficiency, flexibility and not crazy expensive. Chandler at 2 feels a little earlier to me. If it’s a budget pick, that’s fine. He’s not as good as your 3^rd round pick Capella who I love. Some usage to go with awesome efg, solid D and clean player. Clifford Ray, if you go with the high ast% season gives some flexibility to where you can play LeBron so I like that part. Starting to worry a little about usage. Frazier is interesting. He has some pretty interesting seasons, reminds me a little of Gary Payton – so nothing really wrong with him in the 5^th except that I think he goes undrafted sometimes. So you could consider a super sub in the 5^th and then grab him in the 6^th.

24kpyrite: Wilt (1); Billups (2); Klay Thompson (3); Carlos Boozer (4); JR Smith (5): Wilt is great and can be challenging with this budget, but a nice problem to have. Billups is a nice grab at the end of the 2^nd and pairing with Klay is interesting. Having Klay at the 2 means you need assists and rebounds, which Wilt can fit with. Boozer is interesting, great efg and boards, but a liability on D that Wilt can’t cover up. JR concerns me. Not just because I wanted to draft him in the 5^th myself, but he has a little too many minutes at the 2 with Klay. Neither of which pass or rebound.

Jhsukow: Steph (1); Oladipo (2); Mutombo (3); Kirilenko (4); Chris Andersen (5): Love Steph and would consider him with the 1^st pick. Oladipo is nice, his 90 D covers Steph – but a lot of usage for 53.7 efg. Any time you’re taking shots away from Steph it makes me question. Especially this earlier. Mutombo I like with Steph, efficient and you’re building a pretty good team defensively. With the K man I now see your plan. Fantastic team defensively with lots of blocks and steals. Adding Chris Andersen keeps the defense theme going. His best season is the 1400 min 99% at SF. The only concern so far is maybe minutes. But there seems to be more and more good players late so that’s not a big problem. It’s early, but JH won’t be high on my division draft for sure.

Gerryred: Shaq (1); Shawn Marion (2); Mike Conley (3); Jerry Lucas (4); Jose Calderon(5): Great start with Shaq, think he was definitely the best player on the board. Marion in the second I like less. It was pretty late in the 2^nd so not too bad, but I feel you can get guys pretty close to Marion later. He is a very clean player with great D. Mike Conley starts to add some much needed assists and 3’s, good value here. I like Jerry Lucas ok, but on this team not so much. He’s too much money and not enough D. Shaw already eats up a good amount of money and Marion too for a moderate usage guy. I do like Calderon in the 5^th and he pairs fairly nicely with Conley although this pair is a little light on D.

dBKC: Jordan (1); Draymond Green (2); Mookie Blaylock (3); Robert Parish (4): It’s hard to say you don’t like Jordan, but I don’t. It’s hard to say why – 2 of his best seasons are in the 55 efg area which is good. It’s not Shaq or Howard level but good. And he adds everything else. Maybe it’s the price. I looked and the records say no one has one a title with Jordan and he’s only made the playoffs 8 of 18 tracked seasons. Let’s see what dBKC does with him! Draymond I love, especially with Jordan. I know some owners don’t love taking SF’s eary, but his D, 3’s, assists and rebounds should work well with Jordan. I also like Mookie here. You have a good amount of 3’s and guys to feed Jordan. Best of all 3 90 + defenders. Parish comes back to Earth after isacqbs58 took him 15^th overall last time. This is a better place for The Chief. Without looking closely I might have liked to see a better defender here to keep it going, but Parish adds some much needed efficiency.

Sappy: Dwight Howard (1); Nash (2); Bill Russell (3); Nance (4); Wesley Person (5): Howard is the right pick here. He does everything you need with EFG in the paint, D and rebounding. Nash is a nice fit with Howard, great shooting to start for Sappy. Russell’s struggles in the sim is a travesty, but it is what it is. He’s made the playoffs once and team high wins of 43. I hope Sappy can make him successful. Maybe the better passing version of Russell with still top notch rebounding. Nance is a nice grab in the 4^th and checks a lot of boxes with D, EFG and pretty good rebounding at the 3 – which I’m assuming you’ll go with. I’m not sure Wesley Person is always drafted and if true, I’d rather see you grab a top notch bench player.

Nice jcred. Thanks for doing this.

Thanks jcred. I was between Chandler and Klay - made the wrong choice looking at things now but I think I can make it work.

Posted by copernicus on 4/7/2019 8:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 4/7/2019 2:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by isacqbs58 on 4/7/2019 8:04:00 AM (view original):
First two picks Duncan and Magic seemed great fits for what I want this team to do. 3rd pick wasn’t a guy I was thinking about but Dr J was sitting there and hard not to grab. Turnovers are a worry with him but at 2-3 spots he’s a monster on the boards. And here’s where I went south.....4th pick was Drexler and I had him in that #3 slot on my draft board. I didn’t adjust after taking Dr J and took Drexler. That pick then made $$$ tight. So after that I had to become inventive and cautious with picks. #5 Dennis Scott gives me someone to shoot outside without breaking the bank. He’s not the most efficient shooter but fills a need. #6-7 Bol and Embry Fill needs at big. Not at all glamorous choices but fit some needs. Bol defense and blocking and Embry boards and some inefficient scoring.

I was going after players who can clean the glass and play multiple positions effectively. My first 4 picks I feel achieved that.

Im awaiting Robusk evaluation on my GMing this season. He was absolutely spot on with my platoon of ‘good’ players last season.

Well, you can't afford to use the best season of all your selections, so I can't give you too specific a forecast. The best season of each comes out to around $52M. You will probably have to go with a cheap Drexler and a cheap Embry...and if you are doing that why select them where you did? With that being the case you will still be too expensive. The main reason for that is your minutes adjusted usage is around 22 points which is crazy. Duncan and Magic were great picks, I am fine with Drexler and Bol in those spots. Scott is whatever, you could have gotten someone similar for a lot less. Embry is crap and Erving was a terrible pick for you. He is expensive and inefficient, plus has a bunch of usage you don't need.

You will be better than last season but not great.

I think you guys are looking at the wrong Doc season (81-82 has a 54.7 efg and 11.0 TOV%, not to mention the 100 d) - I think the Drexler pick was the wrong turn as he's redundant with Doc positionally - that said his 3m (partial, post Houston trade) season is pretty sweet

You are right in the sense that inefficient was the wrong term to use for that Doc season (which I log as the best season). It's more the lack of threes for a perimeter player, combined with the middling rebounds and assists. At that price I personally consider him undraftable.

Maybe if I ended up with something like Jason Kidd/Deandre Jordan at the turn and I could pick up Erving at the end of the third I could swing it.

jcred5, clarification on Bill Russell:

“He has made the playoffs once and has a high of 43 wins*”

*That’s only for eight seasons as a first round pick. I don’t track after the first round.

Great start to the evals!

I totally would have taken Russell if he'd made it down to me in the 3rd - his final season with the 90 D is good on the boards, clean TOV/PF wise, passes well for his position and at 7.6m is inexpensive for a 40mpg+ player

Thanks for the evals, jcred. I think if my target can last a few more picks to my next slot then my team will look a lot more cohesive.

Jamie, great picks with Ward and Bell

Cjok1051: Kareem (1); McHale (2); Otto Porter (4); Kevin Johnson (4); Nate McMillan (5): Chalk so for in the 1^st round IMO. Kareem is the best player on the board. Can be a little pricey in this format, but offers so much he’s a no brainer here. McHale I struggle with personally because he’s such a poor rebounder. I looked at him more closely – if you go with the big season it’s a ton of money for a guy with only ok usage and will hurt you on the boards. His shooting is great, very clean with great D. You can go with a lesser minutes but then you used a 2^nd pick and he doesn’t really change at the lower price. A lot of money probably on the first two guys. I like Otto Porter and have used his recent season – great 3 point shooting and rebounds. But you may have an assist problem now if you play him at the 2. I like the Kevin Johnson pick. KJ is a bit under rated in this format I believe and is a good solid PG who does a lot of the things you need… except play D. With McMillan I’m starting to get a little lost on the approach here. With KJ he helps assists if they play 1-2, but then your rebounding is in serious trouble with McHale a the 4 and Porter at the 3. Lets see how this wraps up.

Copernicus: Chris Paul (1); Karl Anthony Towns (2); Shawn Kemp (3); Ibaka (4); Robert Covington (5): Depending on your approach I think you can make the case CP should go higher, so I really like grabbing him here. I haven’t dug fully into the analyzing the value of PG vs big men, but I will say the first round is dominated by quality big men and taking a PG here gives you an advantage over others. How many PG can score efficiently, play top notch D, super clean, shoot 3’s and extremely high assists? I think just one and some brilliant owner will pick him soon. Steph warrants his pick because of his ridiculous shooting and usage, but he doesn’t match CP’s assists or D? Moving on…. Another great pick with KAT. I’m starting to wonder why he’s not a 1^st rounder. He does everything but play D. 22.9 usage at 59.6 efg! Or 27.5 usage at 57.6 efg, both with real good rebounding, no TO’s to speak of and as many as 120 3’s – which allows you to be aggressive at positions like the 2 and 3 and not worry as much about checking the perimeter box. So far my favorite team. With Kemp you can go the full 100 D season and he will very nicely cover up KAT. Also has a few other 80 + D seasons if you want better shooting. He is a sloppy mess with high TO’s and Fouls, but with a 3^rd rounder you have to sacrifice something. Ibaka in the 4^th, for this team, a big steal. Not only the D, ORreb and efg – but also a very clean player like CP and KAT. Those are the types of guys you want to pair Kemp with. Copernicus will also not be high on my division draft list. Covington is the first imperfection here. I would rather have seen more assists. Can you run a 1^st team only with CP’s assists? I’m not sure. Covington is the very definition of “3 and D” and is great for that, just not sure on the fit due to lack of assists. Maybe some bench assists to help out… we’ll see.

Pharrop: Anthony Davis (1); Deron Williams (2); Marvin Williams (3); Danny Green (4); Andrew Bynum (5): You can make the case for AD here. His most recent season with 30 usage and 55 efg is pretty nice. A little mediocre on the boards, but 100 D and super clean. Definitely a lot to build around. There’s nothing wrong with Deron Williams here. He has that one 54.4 efg season with great assist, real good D, a few 3’s and 2^nd banana usage….. no concerns yet. I was about to say I didn’t like the Marvin Williams pick, but decided to research him first. He’s actually better than I thought. I was going to say he’s a poor man’s Donyell, but he’s pretty darn close to Donyell. Better overall efg, defense is close and more 3’s per minute than Marshall. Not a bad pick. Danny Green feels like the wrong pick here. I feel one of the bigger challenges when building a team is getting enough assists AND 3’s. If you go with 3 point shooting at SF or even front court with some more recent players, you don’t have the pressure to get a lot of 3’s at the 1 and 2. But if you don’t get assists in the front court I think you have to get them from both guards. So Marvin Williams with Green just isn’t enough. Bynum is fine next to AD. Nothing spectacular and doesn’t help with assists. But a good rebounder with good efg and D.

Tau1624: KD (1); Camby (2); Kyle Lowry (3); Al Horford (4); Eric Bledsoe (5): I won last season with KD, so I’m biased. But I as much as I’ve loved Bird for years, KD now is the guy here. With his more recent seasons with lower minutes KD has added flexibility and even more 3’s and defense, yet hasn’t sacrificed is rebounds and assists. At this point in the draft you have several options – I think KD is a good one. Some will say you should wait on SF and I get that, but a SF who checks all the boxes allows you to take the best player on the board more often as the draft progresses. We all know what Camby brings. Great boards and D with some helper assists. Solid pick. I love the most recent Lowry season with a ton of 3’s, his best efg season and sneaky good dreb. I’ve wanted to try him myself. With Horford I wonder if you’re going to slide KD to the 2 with the slight eligibility hit and try one of Horford’s 99 or 98% eligibility at SF. Intriguing… The Bledsoe pick may not be as terrible as I first thought. He has basically one season broken up with partials if you need to flex minutes where he has good D and shooting, but not a ton else. Or will you use a lesser minute season for him off the bench and keep KD at the 2 and Horford at the 3?



Robusk: Karl Malone (1); Ben Wallace (2); Brent Barry (3); Jrue Holiday (4); James Johnson (5): Another good 1^st round pick here. Malone gives you nearly top notch efg with a ton of usage. You can choose from the passing Mailman later in his career or the more blackhole version from the late 80’s. All have good rebounding. With Wallace robusk has a formidable front court. Awesome D and perfect compliments. Malone will get all the shots Wallace doesn’t want. Barry is sneaky good and one of those guys that make me wonder if we drafted stat lines, not player names, would he go higher? 61.1 efg, 13.7 dreb, 17.8 ast%, 2.2 stl %, 2.6 TO per 48 minutes, 164 3’s and 63 D. There are guys with low usage in the 2^nd round and I think he’s that good. The new Holiday season is nice, great D and good efg even though his 3 point % isn’t great. Also very clean. But assists are very low at the 1 and 2 so you’ll need to go with that higher passing Malone. James Johnson, I like his SG eligible season. With your front court rebounding you can probably get away with him at SF, but why lose that advantage. Great looking team.

Benhoidal: Charles Barkley (1); Ben Simmons (2); Donyell Marshall (3); Kyle Korver (4); Andrew Bogut (5): Barkley is a 4 time champion and better owners than me can build a winner around him. As we’ll see with ben’s later picks he’s going with Barkley’s PF season rather than trying for SF and a rebounding advantage. With Ben Simmons, Ben has two guys who I think would lose to my 13 year old son and I in a 3 point shoot out. But there’s time for 3’s later. For now Simmons brings almost unheard of rebounding and assists at the point (but not the 2? Ha! Eligibility joke there) with good usage, defense and efg. Do a search on PG eligible players with 18% dreb, 28 ast% and 54% efg. It’s a very short list and the other guy was picked first overall. And I love the 60% shooting in the paint. Donyell brings some much needed 3’s and won’t take too many shots from Barkley or Simmons, and is shaping up to be a top notch rebounding team. Korver brings those much needed 3’s. Pretty weak everywhere else, but he fits well with this team. Bogut in the 5^th is a solid pick. If you go with the higher efg season you get real good rebounding and 70 something D. You need someone to cover Barkley on D and will need to pick up more help in the 6^th round or later.

Covington was definitely a mistake - kicking myself for forgetting about James Johnson tbh

Can't wait to see how perplexed jcred is by my selections. Great job on the evals so far, always a good read.

Nice evals!!!! jcred!! Hope I never win this because doing evals would make me lseem less than I know. Love reading them

PG: Manu/undrafted guys
SG: Cooper/Ingles
SF: Weatherspoon/Ingles
PF: Moses/undrafted guys
C: Jokic/Monroe/undrafted guys

The team concept is pretty simple - surround Moses with assists and threes. I put my team in the draft center after the first round and have gotten everyone I planned to get (plus for now the undrafted guys I've planned to use haven't been selected) so if the team doesn't work it's definitely a failure of the concept, not the execution. Shooting is great, we have well over 600 threes, and we have plenty of assists. Good rebounding (plus Moses' post scoring) will hopefully punish teams that try to go +2 or +3 against us. I've really wanted to try out Ingles' 17-18 season and there's no better team to try it than one with Moses as the first-round draft pick. Manu is a long-time favorite of mine at this or any cap.

The two weaknesses are glaring - defense and turnovers. I'm starting Cooper to have more D in the starting lineup. But the season I'm using is one of his lesser ones--88/89, with only 70 D--because I couldn't find a way to afford a more expensive one (I'd love to find a way to use 85/86 or 86/87 instead but don't think I can without sacrificing one of the better seasons of my other drafted guys). The starting lineup has 4 70+ defenders, but none higher than 84, and whenever Ingles is in or Manu is out defense will be an issue. Hopefully the efficient scoring is enough to make up for it - if the turnover albatross, mainly through Moses, doesn't sink us.

Mikee1: David Robinson (1); Anfernee Hardaway (2); Joakim Noah (3); Marques Johnson (4); Enes Kanter (5): that rookie season for The Admiral is pretty nice, although pricey for $10m. Probably the guy I would have taken given who was on the board at the time. Hardaway is as good as you can get without being really great at anything. Very nice player, pretty good value here that pairs fairly well with Robinson. I think my hesitation with him has been that he’s assists are kind of low for a PG and his 3’s and maybe boards too light for a SG. I like Noah here and his assists allow you to not worry too much about playing Hardaway at the point. Great defensive team so far too. Good ole’ Marques Johnson. I remember back in the day how excited I’d be to grab his 10/20 reb% at SF with that 74 D. These days you tend to look for more from your SF like shoot 3’s and/or get assists. But it’s hard not like him as a 4^th round pick. Kanter’s 17-18 is an awesome 22 minutes off your bench. I like grabbing a great bench player in the 5^th instead of fighting for scraps in the 6^th. That said – you need 3’s BIG TIME. Good luck in the 6^th round!

Tarheel1991: Moses Malone (1); Manu Ginobili (2); Nikola Jokic (3); Clearance Weatherspoon (4); Joe Ingles (5): I’ve fallen off the band wagon on Moses. Just too much money for too little usage and his primary strength of rebounding seems to be easier to get every year. Has anyone every tried the higher 57% efg season? His rebounds are quite as high as the top season, but still good. And saves a couple million. Nothing wrong with Manu in the 2^nd. Does a lot of things well at the 2. Love Jokic especially if you pair him with a defender, which Moses can do fairly well. Opens up so many other possibilities. Spoonman in the 4^th I don’t know about, especially for this team. He has creb over 30 which is nice and pretty good D. But I think you needed more here. Ingles is an intriguing player on his own, but that means Manu at the point? Or maybe a PG later, we’ll see. Some work to do here, feels a little off to me.

Dh555: Larry Bird (1); Scottie Pippen (2); Bob McAdoo (3); Tree Rollins (4); Jamaal Tinsley (5): What’s not to like about the Legend. I grew up on Bird in New England, he’s my favorite. I’ve tried to build some winners around him but haven’t been successful. Kinoa won with Bird and Pippen a few seasons ago… speaking of which I love Pippen paired with Bird. Your options are wide open now. You have usage, 3’s, very good boards and assists and good D. Great flexibility. McAdoo is expensive, especially when paired with Bird and Pippen. Great big 3, but have to keep an eye on the money. Tree Rollins is not expensive, so there’s that. Good fit here, some boards, 100 D, good efg and doesn’t turn the ball over. Probably because he’s too busy fouling! A serious hack. Maybe pick up Danny Ainge late for a great team name? Tinsely is a little strange here. Cheap, which his good. Pretty good but not great D. You have to take one of his lower usage seasons so that his sub 45 efg isn’t taking shots away from the big 3.

Jackedjamie: Hakeem Olajuwon (1); Terry Porter (2); Ray Allen (3); Horace Grant (4); Wes Unseld (5): I think this is Jackedjamie so I’ll be gentle… pretty good team so far. Hakeem can be scary because of his cost and below average efg for a top notch player. And good not great rebounding. Wouldn’t be my choice, but not a bad pick. Terry Porter has been my pick very often, just not quite this high. It seems every draft he gets picked earlier and earlier. How long before he goes end of the 1^st!!! I talked about why I like Chris Paul so much earlier and you see much of that here with Porter. He does nothing wrong and is plus almost everywhere. Great player. I personally hate Ray Allen, hate UConn and hate that he choked for the Celtics in the finals against LA including a missed wide open layup. But those aren’t reasons to not pick him. He hits a ton of 3’s and chips in solid boards and assists. Pretty basic defensively, but a nice clean player. Love that Horace Grant season. Good fit here with the oreb, good D and great efg. Nice pick. I don’t know about Wes Unseld. I guess you go with the higher efg season and grab the assist bump, but you’ve got a pretty weak defensive team here even with Dreamy.

Clayolson1: Giannis Antetokounmpo (1); Artis Gilmore (2); John Wall (3); Kevin Willis (4); Patrick Ewing (5): The Freak is a just great. I can’t wait to see his current season in the sim. Gives you everything except 3 point shooting. Gilmore seems to have settled in to the 2^nd round and I like him better here. Can do a lot of things and score very efficiently. When I saw John Wall I decided to double check his stats before typing in a big YIKES. After checking them I realized HOLY YIKES! I think Clayolson is a new owner and I’m happy to have new blood in the ODL. Especially happy to have him picking right in front of me. Wall is just a bad pick as you’ll come to realize. Shoots way too much for a bad shooter and takes shots away from the Freak and Gilmore, who can score north of 60% efg. Turns it over a lot and he’s not that cheap. He does have pretty good D, so there’s that. Kevin Willis is back! An old staple when rebounds ruled the world. If you want that top rebounding season it comes at the cost of 48% efg around 22 usage. I can tell you at this point Gilmore will be getting ****** with all these clowns taking his shots. Someone may get pounded in practice. And then Ewing. Ewing is actually a pretty good pick here at this point in the draft, just not for this team. I don’t know how it works with Willis, Gilmore and Ewing. Not to mention some of the best Ewing seasons are ~ 98% eligible at PF. It will be interesting to see what shape this team takes to stay under budget.

Jcred5: John Stockton (1); Andre Drummond (2); Kyrie Irving (3); Alonzo Mourning (4); Jonas Valaniunas (5): I’ll try to be brief here, feel free to offer opinions. I have the idea of a plan that I used for the first time last season and that’s how I won it. It’s a fairly simple concept that I hope offers me some flexibility since better owners than me have said you shouldn’t have a plan and need to adjust to how the draft goes so you can take the best player/fit. Stockton fits and I’ve wanted to use him for a while. I like guards early. Drummond is earlier than I think is usual, but you guys took all the ones I was hoping for here like DeAndre, Gobert and Whiteside. So I took what I hope is the next best thing. I’ve wanted to try the new Kyrie season for a while and someone always grabs him right before me. I needed usage and didn’t want to risk waiting. Mourning was definitely not on my radar originally and a little pricier than I had wanted, but again needed the usage with some efficiency and D to cover Drummond. I love the Valanciunas season and as mentioned in a few evals, like take a great bench player in the 5^th instead of a 5^th starter. I have some work to do in the 6^th.

Mookie Blaylock/?
Michael Jordan/Rodrigue Beaubois
Draymond Green/?
Charles Oakley/?
Larry Sanders/Robert Parish

I have a few different seasons of MJ/Oakley/Parish to play around with so that I can make the cap work without a horrible bench, but I’m pretty happy with my draft.