ODL 71 commentary Topic

KJ / Kenny Anderson
Nate McMillan / Undrafted rebounding Guard
Otto Porter / Steve Novak / Undrafted rebounding SF
Kevin McHale / Undrafted high EFG-Usage-Rebounder
KAJ / Undrafted high EFG-Usage-Rebounder

Going with Big seasons for both KAJ and McHale. 57.8% / 60.4% EFG with their 28.7% / 24.1% Usage. Defense won't be a problem in the post with their 80 / 90 ratings respectively, and in a pinch McHale can cover the 3 at 87.3 Defense.

McMillian is a good rebounding guard with outstanding defense (95) to cover the guard spots, Porter another very good rebounder at the 3 is also an EFG wizard 58.1%, Novak backing him up is a long range sharp shooter with an EFG of 67.5%. (over 300 made 3's from the SF spot alone) KJ and Kenny Anderson at the point both have over 30% Ast and one will always be on the floor to distribute nicely.

At first glance this is not the best rebounding team, however the starting line up has 78.4% Dreb. It's not ideal, but it absolutely works for what this team is designed for. We defend the two primary scorers at an elite level, we play very clean, and bottom line we don't miss much.
(53% from the floor, 42% from deep)
4/9/2019 10:25 AM
It will be interesting to watch that team, cjok - you'll definitely be testing the limits of how little rebounding you can get away with because I don't think I can remember a team that light on the boards. When Novak is in the game you'll probably be around 25/70 in rebounding percentages which is really low. Defense is going to be an issue too, particularly backcourt defense (reminds me of my team!) but you're right that your team should really score the ball. Question is whether you'll be using possessions efficiently enough to make up for the extra shots your opponents are likely going to get through rebounding edge.
4/9/2019 10:55 AM
In at least the last 18 seasons the number of conference finalists with under 80 starting dreb% is exactly... zero.
4/9/2019 11:09 AM
I like my team but who knows:

Walt Frazier
JJ Redick
Lebron James
Clint Capela
Clifford Ray
Tyson Chandler
Swen Nater
4/9/2019 11:35 AM
who is your SF?
4/9/2019 12:03 PM
:(

Lebron starting but backing up PG and SG - that is my one worry, but I think my rebounding is still very high.
4/9/2019 12:10 PM
Posted by NotoriousJ on 4/9/2019 12:10:00 PM (view original):
:(

Lebron starting but backing up PG and SG - that is my one worry, but I think my rebounding is still very high.
everyone else that plays SF you don't see here.
4/9/2019 12:13 PM
Mptrey: Dennis Rodman (1); Hassan Whiteside (2); Paul George (3), Troy Murphy (4); Derrick Rose (5): The expensive Rodman can be tough to build around because of his low usage, but he is so valuable with the rebounds at the SF you can make it work if you us the front court positions to add some diversity. Love Whiteside – he was on my board for an early 2nd round pick. Great value here. Paul George’s recent seasons where he’s 52-53 efg are intriguing. Good D and a ton of 3’s. Clean player too with rebounds. Nice guy to have if you can find assists – which right now you definitely need. Troy Murphy won’t give you assists for sure, or defense. He does rebound Swen Nater style and of course gives you 3’s from the front court. You have Whiteside to cover him on D and 2 other good to great defenders – but you have no assists to speak of so far. I don’t get Derrick Rose here at all. I don’t think I see evidence that he’s going to be a sneaky bench player, so as you’re starting PG he has below average (for an ODL) ast% with 32.4 usage at 48.5 efg, taking shots away from every other player on your team who is far more efficient at scoring. I think this team is in trouble.

Midge: DeAndre Jordan (1); Kawhi Leonard (2); Bobby Jones (3); Kevin Love (4); Kirk Hinrich (5): Love DeAndre. Great start and a good guy to build around. I’m not a hug Kawhi fan. Mostly because you have to take him in the 2nd round and unless he’s paired with a top notch PG, you’re now limiting your options because you need to grab assists. It’s not the end of the world, just not my preference. He does give fantastic D, good rebounds at the 2 and a couple of efficient scoring options at tier 2 or 3. Bobby Jones is in the same category for me as Kawhi – almost nothing wrong with his stats except he doesn’t pass or shoot 3’s. It can be done for sure, but on this team you are now desperate for assists and still need 3’s. Love gives the 3’s and with Jordan’s defense you can get buy, so nicely done there. He’s also a pretty clean player too. Your starting 5 is rounded out with Hinrich who I actually like a lot and think he is very undervalued in the ODL. I like him more than guys who go ahead of him like Derek Harper or Terrell Brandon. But I don’t love him for this team. I think you’re very low on assists. Great defensive team, maybe piece together bench assists to work into the rotation.

Uptowngbv: James Harden (1); Jason Kidd (2); Elton Brand (3); Amare Stoudemire (4); Buddy Hield (5): If you can put Harden around players who don’t turn the ball over at all, Harden can be intriguing. I would opt for the most recent better shooting and D version. A little light on minutes for a first rounder, but he makes up for it with sheer volume of shots (wait until the new season comes out!). Kidd is a great fit here and I like him better as a 2nd rounder than a 1st. Brand keeps the fit going as another low TO guy with great D. Same with Stoudemire – really like how this team is shaping up if you can put a defender next to Amare. Hield is a fun pick, I’d think behind Harden to put up 3’s when Harden slides to the 1. Definintely an interesting start to the team with some work to do in the 6th round.

Ysw128: Kevin Garnett (1); Bill Walton (2); Derek Harper (3); Terrell Brandon (3); Maurice Cheeks (5): KG at SF is an absolute beast. You need to be careful with the money right off the bat. You need usage and need to pick your spots. Walton is a pretty good pair with Garnett, I love Walton. Might have looked for more usage here. Same is true with Derek Harper. If you have all your boxes checked already and want a guy who won’t mess anything up…. Harper’s your guy. But you don’t have that yet. You still need 3’s. And adding Terrell Brandon does help much with that and if I can jump right to the Cheeks pick, I’m pretty confused by this approach. More than enough assists and without checking the minutes you probably have a 3 man rotation set for the 1 and 2, just not enough 3’s. A 3 point shooting big man will help you a lot in the 6th round.

6theluckyone: Rudy Gobert (1); Dwayne Wade (2); Rajon Rondo (3); Tom Boerwinkle (4); Paul Millsap(5): Rudy Gobert is another very good pick end of the 1st and pairs well with Dwayne Wade. Nice D, usage set up. Need some 3’s and Rondo doesn’t do that. And it’s pretty early for Rondo. There were a lot of better options here in the 3rd who shoot 3’s I would have gone with. Boerwinkle is great on the boards and obviously assists and doesn’t hurt you on D. And Paul Millsap is a really nice grab in the 5th. The team is shaping up with great D, boards and assists. But you’ll need 3’s off the bench big time to keep your defenders out of the paint.

isacqbs58: Tim Duncan (1); Magic Johnson (2); Dr. J (3); Clyde Drexler (4); Dennis Scott (5): Tim Duncan is a great value late in the first and pairs very well with Magic on the wrap around. Really good 1 to 2 combo to start, one of the best so far. It’s a shame Dr. J is falling this far. He’s a victim of not shooting 3’s and taking too many long 2’s (mid range shots). He’s also pretty pricey, but he’s D, rebounding and solid assists are great. Drexler in the 4th is a head scratcher. Not a reach, but don’t like the fit at all. If you have the balls to go old school Doc with really high boards at the 3, hats off to you for trying. Otherwise you have an old school 2 with 3’s point shooting flaws (Doc) and then drafted a poor mans’ Dr. J. Neither are usually best suited at the 3, wasting their rebound advantage. I know I said you need 3’s and you must have though so too since you drafted Dennis Scott. He certainly solves that problem, but you now have a 3 headed SG/SF monster and no PF next to Duncan. You made Duncan and Magic sad ?
4/9/2019 5:43 PM
Ok - that was way more work than I thought. I will go through the 6th rounders to update the evals with conclusions. I've been so distracted by this I fear my team will suffer!
4/9/2019 5:46 PM
Posted by jcred5 on 4/9/2019 5:46:00 PM (view original):
Ok - that was way more work than I thought. I will go through the 6th rounders to update the evals with conclusions. I've been so distracted by this I fear my team will suffer!
Yeah man, that is how it goes. My worst two seasons are the seasons I did the evals. It is a lot of work!

I appreciate it. It was a good read. I like to peer into the heads of other owners.

I think there is an obvious trend in this usually. When I sort these teams by my predicted finish, I can see that 5 of the bottom 11 teams drafted WAY too much usage. Only one of the top 13 did. There are some other quirks I won't dive into but that is a big one.
4/9/2019 6:21 PM
PG - Billups/Watson/???
SG - Klay/JR
SF - ???
PF - Boozer/Tarpley/???
C - Wilt

The cap definitely dwindles with Wilt, which made me think piecing together 3 partial SF seasons was way to go.
4/9/2019 6:30 PM
I was definitely too bullheaded on the D-Rose approach. I needed usage at the PG position and although I surely could have put together an extremely efficient team, I thought what's the point of having Rodman AND Whiteside if you don't have anyone missing shots?

If I got Kevin Love where I planned to take him, this would be a whole different (and probably better) team but I had to think on the fly and I've never tried a strategy like this before so even if I have losing season, it was all in the name of experimentation.
4/9/2019 8:07 PM
nice work J
4/9/2019 9:25 PM
Thanks for the evals jcred...always good getting feedback and seeing other thoughts and strategies...

here is the Axe Capital B.C. squad:

Anthony Davis 17-18...maybe he was a few spots early but I like using different guys and have not had a 100 D guy. He will play the 4 and his reb% is a little light for that spot. The strategy was to address that with his teammates.
Deron Williams 07-08...the 34.2 ast% is the attraction (and Magic is resigning...will hold up this self eval) 54.4% efg makes him 2nd option for AD. Get the usage out of the way. The 70 D helps too.
Marvin Williams 15-16...Probably early for him...I did want Donyell Marshall but he was selected a few spots earlier so I took DMar light b/c I didn’t think he would make it back to me. I needed perimeter shooting to fit in with AD and DWill. Marvin’s reb and D are fairly decent and he switches over 4 spots.
Danny Green 14-15...Wanted more Per and D. His ast% is low as jcred pointed out but MWill and DGreen both come in at 2300 minutes so they allow different options for backups so can address the ast issue(over 60% is an issue?). Our D is as good as I have had in my ODL experience after 4 selections.
Andrew Bynum 07-08...centers I wanted went (I had Jerry Lucas penciled in b/c of passing) Bynum has two seasons I use that provide flexibility. I needed paint scoring and reb and his D is decent. He won’t start but will score off bench.
Kris Humphries 10-11..30% def reb...needed that. Scores some in the paint too. I looked at all different bigs left...decided to emphasize reb to help AD
Trey Burke 17-18... I like to match up my subs with the usage of starters. Burke fits with DWill and he had been selected in round 6 of recent drafts so I grabbed hm.
Had money left to address backups for AD and the wing spots. Picked up more ast% with 3s and D. Right now at 19,200 minutes the lowest I have run in ODL. 700 3FGM. Got an 83D guy to guard good 1’s. Reb is lower than my last few teams...TOs are lower and D is better with lower fouls too. Team is very switchy. ...We shall see.

Anyone want to share ast% targets for lineups. I figured 60% was good. Moved it up after jcred’s eval. Can run out squads with anywhere from 63%ish to 73ish.
4/9/2019 10:24 PM (edited)
Nothing too complicated on my side. After Malone and Wallace fell to me unexpectedly, I had a defensive frontline with pretty good rebounding set up, with 8 points of usage and a MID% focused. After that, I needed enough paint scoring and perimeter shooting to take the heat off of Malone with like another 4-6 points of usage total. I reached for Barry and apparently not Jrue since people right after me wanted him. He is good but honestly he is so close to Payton and other dudes who went undrafted.

I thought about both Ray Allen and Gary Payton in the Barry spot but both have features that bothered me. I traded down a couple times knowing I was reaching but ran out of benefit for trading down and just took the dudes I wanted. James Johnson is fine, he turns it over and fouls more than I like and you are paying for some wasted usage, but he defends all five positions well, combined with good passing and rebounding.

My other thought was Brandon Wright and picking three point shooting guard in the sixth. Instead Johnson was the move and then Ceballos/Powe combo gives me some usage with a heavy PNT% focus (and good boards) so I can offset anyone who wants to play + defense on me. The bench will just be about filling out rebounding and threes as cheaply as possible while meeting any usage needs.
4/10/2019 1:32 AM
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