Posted by Jtpsops on 5/30/2019 2:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by thunder1008 on 5/29/2019 10:37:00 PM (view original):
Future Hall of Famers
Slam dunks -- Jeter, Ichiro, Pujols, Beltran, Beltre, Cabrera, Kershaw, Trout, Verlander, Utley
Likely -- Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Larry Walker, K-Rod, Ortiz, Mauer
Maybe -- A-Rod, Rollins, Votto, Torii Hunter, Billy Wagner, Minnie Minoso, Dick Allen, Cano, Molina
Distant Horizon -- Sale, Stanton, Harper, Bumgarner, Machada, Altuve, Freeman, Scherzer
I love CC but, as someone said earlier in this thread, he's Hall of Very Good, not Hall of Fame. Low end maybe, more like unlikely. And in 2027, after the baseball biopic Hustle earns five Oscar nominations, Pete Rose rides a groundswell of popular support into the HOF. I mean, c'mon -- 4,256.
My 0.02...
I'm curious - how do you have ARod as a maybe, but Bonds and Ortiz as likely? All have strong PED links, and ARod was definitely better than Ortiz offensively and defensively. He had more defensive value than Bonds, though Bonds was better at the plate.
I doubt if players linked to PED's will continue to be treated as a single group. Some will get in and some won't, though every juicer who gets in will make it a little easier for others to follow. Bonds and Clemens are the closest to being voted in because their achievements came before there was "a process." They never were actually suspended or failed a drug test, even if everyone "knows" they used, and that means something to HOF voters. I also think most HOF voters believe they would have put up numbers worthy of inclusion with or without benefit of the needle, while McGwire and Sosa were essentially bulked up sluggers.
Ortiz failed only an anonymous, confidential testing process that MLB's own Commissioner disavowed as meaningless, and the big surge for Edgar Martinez helps his case as a DH. A-Rod and others actually failed drug tests and/or were suspended for PED use. A-Rod is also massively unpopular with voters (not that Bonds and Clemens are beloved) and will never benefit from a "let him in" groundswell of support.
Finally, the continued influx of Sabermetricians into the ranks of HOF voters will continue to shift the process to more objective, numbers-based criteria rather than the subjective opinion that has been a barrier to the PED crowd.
Again, just my 0.02...