“If the d2 team is ahead in effort (after all things are considered like prestige, preferences, etc) then the d2 can keep the d1 team below high.”
This part is right. But the D2 has to be *far* ahead, because it only takes the D1 school getting within ~60% of the leader (the D2) to get into range; and if the player has an early preference, he will sign with the D1 team, even if the D2 is significantly ahead.
“If the d1 team is listed as VH and d2 is medium then the d1 team is
definitely ahead in effort.”
This part is definitely not true.
If it’s RS1, and there’s a D1 listed at VH and a D2 at moderate, the D2 may be ahead in effort credit. Because of the red light, the D2 can’t get above moderate until RS2. But you can’t assume the D1 is “ahead” going into RS2. All you know for sure is that the D1 has done enough to be within a few percentage points of the leader; could be anywhere from slightly behind to well ahead. If the player wants to sign in the first session, that won’t matter, the D2 has no chance. If the player wants to sign in the second session, it could matter a lot.
6/12/2019 9:40 AM (edited)