I budgeted 6mil in HS scouting and 16mil for college scouting. Naturally the top rated prospect is a HS infielder or so one would believe, if everything was equal. How much of a deviation would I expect from his lofty ratings to what he will actually perform as?

I would drop his expectations by about 10%, with the understanding that it could be 20% or more when all is said and done. With only 6 in the budget, it's more of a dart throw while blindfolded vs. just a roll of the dice.

I'm looking at a draft class right now, 4 mil HS budget and 16 mil College. The HS players are the ones with the stupid ratings. There's a 98 Glove SS, 100 vSR pitcher, 100 vsR hitter. That's the kind of exaggerations I see.

I would just not draft anyone HS with a $6M budget.

If you're going to budget 22 units then make it 20 and do 20-0.

Posted by cubcub113 on 6/7/2019 6:56:00 PM (view original):
If you're going to budget 22 units then make it 20 and do 20-0.

This is much better than 11-11.

Jezus. 20 million scouting has flaws. 16 million is as low as I go with any confidence that I'm seeing anything close to reliable, and it usually shows at least one implausible rating. Budgeting in the middle for both categories simply assures that nothing you can see will be reliable. There's a damned good reason why so many of us simply opt to go 20-0. The only reason to budget something like 11-11 would be to suspect you can succeed by doing something counter to all observed convention. Like being a ******* anti-vaxxer. That's a hell of a reason to waste 22 million of your budget on nothing.

Geez, damag, tell us how you really feel.

That said, IMO the only reason ever to budget 1-15 in HS or COL is because you’re on your way to higher or lower. Not true of INTL, though... the competitive bidding structure allows you to succeed in that market with lower investment.

For me the sweet spot has been $17 million. When I've done $20 million it seems to under rate the players. But its hard to tell which ones are under rated. At $17-18 its always been easier to tell who was more accurate. But it just might be how i perceive it.

On 20 million I've seen a guy with 95-100 eye, vsL, and vsR. I looked a year or so later and he peaked at like 73/80/90 and was a stud even with 65 power but wow 20 is low enough for me.

Not entirely related to the original post, but since it's an amateur draft question I figured I'd ask it here...

I have the #1 pick and have 20/10 budgeted for College and HS. Reasoning being that I greatly prefer a college player, but if there was a total HS stud I wanted to be able to see him.

Well, the draft list just came out and it's...underwhelming at best. Is there a no risk way to punt my pick? And how do I do it? If memory serves me correctly, I think I draft someone with their mom as the agent, make one offer at the asking price and then pull it?

Posted by musketeer22 on 6/24/2019 9:30:00 AM (view original):
Not entirely related to the original post, but since it's an amateur draft question I figured I'd ask it here...

I have the #1 pick and have 20/10 budgeted for College and HS. Reasoning being that I greatly prefer a college player, but if there was a total HS stud I wanted to be able to see him.

Well, the draft list just came out and it's...underwhelming at best. Is there a no risk way to punt my pick? And how do I do it? If memory serves me correctly, I think I draft someone with their mom as the agent, make one offer at the asking price and then pull it?

Draft a "Probably Won't Sign" with Mom as agent. Meet his asking price. 99.9% chance he'll refuse. You can't pull the initial offer, he has to refuse (or come back asking for more). Once that's done, you'll get a Type D pick next season. (I say 99.9 because I saw the player accept the offer once. Just once.)

"Probably won't sign. Determined to finish out college career" is the message from the 17th ranked player on the board and his mother is his agent.

Any concern that since this is the #1 pick that he'd actually sign?!

Posted by dedelman on 6/8/2019 12:35:00 PM (view original):
Geez, damag, tell us how you really feel.

That said, IMO the only reason ever to budget 1-15 in HS or COL is because you’re on your way to higher or lower. Not true of INTL, though... the competitive bidding structure allows you to succeed in that market with lower investment.

This is the reason why I spend 11-11 instead of 20-0. Depending on next year's budget situation I can go as high as 15-15 if I'm "unapologetically rebuilding" or 7-7 if I'm jamming it all in. If you're 20-0 then you're always 20-0, there's no reason to ever go lower than 16 or higher than 0. There's no deviation. And yes I am just that much better at scouting apparently, the good players are usually pretty obvious to me