Looks like he could turn out to be valuable. What do his updated draft projections say?

Posted by pray4pro on 8/29/2019 10:09:00 AM (view original):
Looks like he could turn out to be valuable. What do his updated draft projections say?

They're different from what the advanced scouting projection says, but in my opinion more novelty than substance

Posted by pjfoster13 on 8/29/2019 8:53:00 AM (view original):

Tonight is the night, I have changed all of my position players to Catcher and will post again if anything fun happens

UPDATE:

Unfortunately nothing happened with any position players. I only got one guy, a relief pitcher who got +9 on his current OVR
Player Profile: Vic Junge

I think I have a decent grasp on how to identify the good DITR candidates, but the most curious part of the game to me is how the sim determines how many DITR players a franchise receives.

For a while, I thought it was a max of three per year and seven over three years because I was getting three, then one, then three pretty consistently, but then two seasons in a row, I only got one DITR.

I am beginning to think it is a lottery system. For instance, there are certain slots (i.e. currently rated 40, projected rating 45; current rated 50, projected rating 59; current rating 27, projected rating 45) to fill and sim will pick random players from random teams to fill each slot. Each player on your franchise that falls into that certain slot gives you a raffle ticket for an opportunity to be chosen. The sim runs through it's code to choose the players each season and sometimes you get 0, 1, 2 or 3 DITRs. I am not sure if there is a limit over time, but I have never gotten more than three. This is my best guess, but all speculative.

I know that before I started playing HBD, there was a time when five was the yearly limit. But I have only read about that in the forums, never experienced it.

In my experience if you have a position player with less than 20 splits that's the guy who becomes a DITR.

I got 5 one season, but I usually mostly get one...a few times 2 or 3. I have just starting making an effort to draft catchers and relief pitchers in the rounds 13 thru 25 hoping to strike a DITR. I am playing only two worlds now, and I got two pitchers in my 1st leagues latest DITR program. One was a 24 yr old relief pitcher who had 5 years in the minors already and went from something like a potential OVR 56 to 64. The other was a rookie starting pitcher who went from potential OVR something like 58 to potential 77. & cycles before the all star break in the other world. That's the one I've loaded up on relief pitchers and catchers in...here's hoping.

I tried looking into this to no real avail recently. I looked over 6-7 leagues and tested a couple of my theories to try and find a correlation but unfortunately didn’t.

What I did find was that over the 200 or so teams, I didn’t see a single team with zero DITRs or more than 3. I’m sure it’s happened, but seems extremely rare. The DITR report screen is also misleading, especially from prior seasons, because the players team will change if the player changes team. A player will also disappear if they retire or are a free agent. So I tried to look only at leagues that just had their DITR cycle.

In addition to C/RPs, 1bs can make good candidates and even SPs or defensive middle infielders/CFs.

It seems like the only good ones I see are young. The older ones dont seem to be good.

I tend to agree. It seems like DITR is kind of multiplier, the more left to gain, the better the DITR bump. Older players with decent stats can make good DITRs still though.

The young ones add value because their develop is in front of them, the old ones add less value because most of their development is behind them.

I have gotten lucky on a few young ones. But the guys that are 4 years pro or more are garbage with only a few exceptions. I have had guys with 97 makeup get ditr in their 5th year, and they just don't develop.

To me, if you are looking to field a competitive team every season (i.e. not tank), you have to find a way to make sure your DITRs become at least a trade able resource. Every ditr you get that ends up off you roster in four seasons with no return on investment is a missed opportunity. I have been playing for twenty seasons now and I have worked my way to 50-50 - half of the DITRs that hit when they were on my team are currently on an MLB roster or will be. Hopefully, I can work that up to 70-30 over the next twenty seasons.

A bit off topic but noticed one of my DITR's actually got worse in his P5. Started out his career with a 10 rating. Was able to drop the lousy pitch entirely to a 0 only to have the DITR event bump it back up to 9, hahaha.

Dang

This happened to one of my guys kind of. His fourth pitch went down 3 points after getting the DITR, but has since gained a point back. Not sure if there's any reasoning to that or if it's just a glitch.

It evens them out so that they're in descending order (or equivalent)

Can't remember the exact trigger but I believe a 10 rating and below for pitches have the potential for getting dropped with decent coach. Just bummed the DITR brought it back.

Posted by pray4pro on 8/7/2019 12:34:00 PM (view original):
So we just had our cycle for DITRs, and I came away with 1 guy who I drafted this season.This was particularly interesting to me because if you have a DITR that was drafted in the same year, their Draft Projections will update.

Player Profile: Johnny Latimore - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

I made a big point to save the Pre-DITR Amateur Draft Projections this season (I don't have much in ADV, so draft scouting is my best bet) and found some interesting things with Latimore and his projections before/after DITR.

• Before the DITR, he was scouted as 56 overall, and after he is now 79.
• None of his general & fielding projections changed at all (including makeup, which I found interesting).
• Of his pitching rating projections, stamina increased (74 -> 84), CTR/VL/VR all increased significantly (51 -> 74, 34 ->74, 54 -> 85). 1/2nd pitches increased about 20 each, with the 3-5 pitches increasing about 30. Vel & GB didn't change at all.
  • The increase projection amounts corresponded with the DITR bump he got. So for instance, the single biggest increase in the actual DITR bump was +9 to VL, which was also the biggest change to his draft projections (+40). From there it pretty much went in order, with VR being the next biggest DITR bump, followed by his 3-5 pitches, and so on. Vel/GB got no DITR bump, which makes sense. So I'm expecting VL & VR to increase significantly for him in the next couple seasons.
• I had never seen this, but his 4th pitch actually decreased after the DITR bump (38 -> 35). I'm curious if that'll reverse quickly, because the draft projections now have that in the 60's.

Overall if he actually hits these new draft projections, he could be a pretty valuable pitcher, especially for the 4th round pick I took him with. I've had two DITR in the year they we're drafted before, and both of them seemed to land somewhat close to their post DITR draft projections, maybe falling short 3/4 overall. But I never looked into the detail of what projections changed.

Just a quick follow up in case anyone is interested:

Latimore's completed one season after his DITR and it looks as those the projections he had on the draft screen post-DITR are still reasonable. He gained 8 points in STA and 12/15/13 in CTR/VL/VR. If you times all his gains by 2.5, he would project 89 in STA (vs. 84 on the draft screen), 72 in CTR (74), 79 VL (74), & 84 VR (85). That's about how close I feel normal draft projections are fwiw. Obviously the 2.5 projection is not perfect, but I feel like it gives you a decent idea, albeit I'm not sure how well it applies to DITRs. I'll be curious to see how this season goes development wise.