Talent has to be close to equal before any game planning might make a difference. Even then, it isn't a zero sum equation.
I don't know the formulas, but I think anything you do makes an incremental difference.All those differences add up. For example ...and these are BS numbers.
Two equal teams. You run every play and opponent guesses run every play. Your resulting runs might look like this
3, 5,-1,3,9,0,2,3,4,13,-1,0,2 = 13 carries, 42 yards
You run every play and he guesses pass every play. Your results might look like this
4,4,-1,3,7,5,0,15,-1,3,5,4,2 = 13 carries 50 yards
Throw in the random number generator and it takes a lot of runs to actually notice a difference.