I tried searching for the thread I read before but could not find it.
What is an acceptable success for a player/team?

My own personal criteria is 67% or better. This applies to individual players and team percentage. If I can't be successful 2/3 of the time, I just don't try to steal.

Yeah, I use 70%, which I have found very difficult to achieve.

Man! Building a team around speed is just as difficult as building a team around hitting and power. However, I think for different reasons. Building a team full of great hitters is difficult because obviously everybody is going after the best hitters.

Building a team around speed is tough because if you have just a few guys in that 95-135 (speed + baserunning), it messes up your team stolen base success rate because your aggressive manager setting will still have those guys running frequently. So, you are forced to be sure that your entire team is either below 40 or above 150 (speed + baserunning). This will result in missing out on great hitters that can improve your team because many great hitters have a (speed + baserunning) in that 95-135 range.

In the end, the answer to your question is a matter of opinion. I personally would want a stolen base success rate of 75 percent if I were to up my stolen base manager setting to aggressive or very aggressive.

I see those super speed demons in the draft almost every year (typically CF, 2b, or RF). They have 90+ speed and 75+ baserunning. If you can get 3+ of those type of players on your team, you are golden, but usually these guys have a fatal flaw (i.e. they don't get on base enough). If they don't have that fatal flaw, then they will typically go in the top ten of the draft or the 20+ million in INTL.

A few seasons back, there were three super fielders in free agency that happened to have 150+ (baserunning + speed) ratings and they also happened to be sitting there after the Rule 5 draft so they were cheap to sign. I needed some help in the infield so I signed all three of them for cheap. I already had one on my team so I now had a total of four players with (speed + baserunning) of 150+. Every one of those players had a success rate of 73.7 percent or better. However, my team rate that season was 66.2. It was because all four of those players got on base less than my great hitters and my great hitters would get on base and get caught stealing.

Posted by tlowster on 7/15/2019 4:38:00 PM (view original):
Man! Building a team around speed is just as difficult as building a team around hitting and power. However, I think for different reasons. Building a team full of great hitters is difficult because obviously everybody is going after the best hitters.

Building a team around speed is tough because if you have just a few guys in that 95-135 (speed + baserunning), it messes up your team stolen base success rate because your aggressive manager setting will still have those guys running frequently. So, you are forced to be sure that your entire team is either below 40 or above 150 (speed + baserunning). This will result in missing out on great hitters that can improve your team because many great hitters have a (speed + baserunning) in that 95-135 range.

In the end, the answer to your question is a matter of opinion. I personally would want a stolen base success rate of 75 percent if I were to up my stolen base manager setting to aggressive or very aggressive.

I see those super speed demons in the draft almost every year (typically CF, 2b, or RF). They have 90+ speed and 75+ baserunning. If you can get 3+ of those type of players on your team, you are golden, but usually these guys have a fatal flaw (i.e. they don't get on base enough). If they don't have that fatal flaw, then they will typically go in the top ten of the draft or the 20+ million in INTL.

A few seasons back, there were three super fielders in free agency that happened to have 150+ (baserunning + speed) ratings and they also happened to be sitting there after the Rule 5 draft so they were cheap to sign. I needed some help in the infield so I signed all three of them for cheap. I already had one on my team so I now had a total of four players with (speed + baserunning) of 150+. Every one of those players had a success rate of 73.7 percent or better. However, my team rate that season was 66.2. It was because all four of those players got on base less than my great hitters and my great hitters would get on base and get caught stealing.

I'm pretty sure this is slightly misleading. It's not (SPD + BR) that matters, purely. Oversimplifying a little bit, SPD determines steal frequency, and BR determines success.

So, for a guy with 110 (SPD + BR)-- if he has 90 SPD and and 20 BR he will have something like 30 SB and 25 CS, which is killing you; but if he has 20 SPD and 90 BR he'll have something like 2 SB and 1 CS, which is fine. Obviously this depends on your team SB frequency setting.

So, if you want to run a lot, there will be a downside to anyone with low BR; and the higher the SPD the greater that downside. Low SPD, high BR players won't hurt you very much.

i'm not seeing the downside...maybe i'm missing something? Would like feedback on the below SB breakdown full season and so far this new season. The top speed/base-running guys are so successful does it matter that the low players are getting thrown out since there attempts are no where near the top guys and my overall is really good.


https://i86.photobucket.com/albums/k116/themanutley/kaline_sb_compare_zpsaazi4n2e.jpg

Posted by TheManUtley on 7/18/2019 9:07:00 PM (view original):
i'm not seeing the downside...maybe i'm missing something? Would like feedback on the below SB breakdown full season and so far this new season. The top speed/base-running guys are so successful does it matter that the low players are getting thrown out since there attempts are no where near the top guys and my overall is really good.


https://i86.photobucket.com/albums/k116/themanutley/kaline_sb_compare_zpsaazi4n2e.jpg

You're not missing anything. You don't have any high-speed, low BR guys to really wreck your percentage, so running as much as you do is fine. In fact, if you're not at the most aggressive setting you should be with that team.

Also, some of your guys who should have much better percentages don't-- are you using the hit-and-run a ton?

Yes...I am "very aggressive" on both base stealing and hit and run. In your opinion would dialing back the hit and run be better? Let them steal the base instead of trying to get them to 3rd or score via contact. My team leads the MLB in GIDP at 26 (15 less than 2nd best and 87 less than worst) but i'm not 100% that's an outcome of the hit an run setting. Any further insight is appreciated.

Posted by TheManUtley on 7/19/2019 3:07:00 AM (view original):
Yes...I am "very aggressive" on both base stealing and hit and run. In your opinion would dialing back the hit and run be better? Let them steal the base instead of trying to get them to 3rd or score via contact. My team leads the MLB in GIDP at 26 (15 less than 2nd best and 87 less than worst) but i'm not 100% that's an outcome of the hit an run setting. Any further insight is appreciated.

I'm honestly not sure I totally understand the repercussions of the hit and run setting, but low GIDP might well be one of them. I'd probably leave well enough alone here... you're on a pace where you're neither totally into nor totally out of the playoffs, so screwing around with the H&R setting just to figure out how it works might be costly.

I have had a few teams that have been built around speed. It seems to work best in low home run high singles ball parks. I like 70+ for base running and 85+ for speed. You can build a decent to good offense and good defense and not spend a ton of money in this way and then spend the bulk on pitching.

you have to watch out to not get guys that are 90 speed 50 base running or worse because those guys will kill you

Posted by pjfoster13 on 7/19/2019 1:17:00 PM (view original):

So, if you want to run a lot, there will be a downside to anyone with low BR; and the higher the SPD the greater that downside. Low SPD, high BR players won't hurt you very much.

Definitely agree that 50 speed + 90 BR is >>> than 90 speed + 50 BR. BR factors more strongly into XBH (2B + 3B along with power) than speed alone. Plus, once on base, having skill is much more important than having raw ability with SB/CS and proper base advancement. However, speed does factor into infield singles which seems to be like an uncharted plus play for the hitter. Contact + low power + speed + guys who hit to the left side of the infield adds slight value

Infield singles are probably not an uncharted plus play for the hitter; it's a serious bug. I am about 97% certain that the engine assigns a hit and then looks at SPD to see if it's an infield hit or a regular hit.

The short answer as to why I believe this is that my regression model for BA, which does not include SPD, works as well for guys with no infield hits as it does for guys with 30 or more.

Posted by pjfoster13 on 7/19/2019 7:03:00 PM (view original):
Mmm I dunno, my method is not scientific because I do not put the effort into formulas but my observations is that super fast guys (speed 93+) consistently outperform their splits by about 20 basis points of batting average.

I could be wrong of course, my observations on this particular topic are not scientific, and something I've argued with MikeT about in the past

This game absolutely has hidden calculations that are not accounted for by the stats alone, but can be solved with derivatives

One of them is SB frequency, there is a formula that weights runner speed vs catcher arm factoring in manager SB aggressiveness testing the limits to the calculation. Catcher arm strength mitigates runners from even attempting, regardless of SB frequency, because the game knows the likelihood of out is super high. Catcher AS correlates directly with SB-attempts-against-per-game

I do not think infield single is purely aesthetic in a similar fashion as P1-P5 names, I strongly believe runner speed is factored into the safe/out formula similar to how it works for SB %. The upper limit of runner speed overwhelms the upper limit of SS/3B arm strength.

I think you are correct. Speed turns ground outs into hits and aren't aesthetic.