Posted by barracuda3 on 9/11/2019 10:43:00 AM (view original):

Posted by brianjw on 9/11/2019 8:56:00 AM (view original):
I'm interested in this because it's revealing to see which first half factors are best predictive of second half results.

In the past, expected win % has been more predictive than record in 2+-run games, which was surprising to me. I thought all the blow-outs in WIS would mean expected win % wasn't that relevant. But we'll see what happens this year.

Both of these have been, by a distance, more predictive than straight win-loss record - because wins are really fluky even over 1/2 a season.

Posts like this are why I still enjoy this site. When I read this I feel like the bee in the Blind Melon No Rain video when she finds the other bees.

What a great analogy!

Sure wish I could get a 4 game series with that team that is currently 4-97!!!

NebHusker back in 1st place overall.

Posted by NebHusker on 9/16/2019 2:57:00 PM (view original):
Sure wish I could get a 4 game series with that team that is currently 4-97!!!

Me too. But knowing my luck, I'd probably get swept by them :P

3-15 today, that just about does it I think...

Oh this feels like a setup for failure for sure...I went 15-3 today (5-1, 6-0 and 4-2). Then mensu1954 picked ahead of me in FDSS, didn't swipe the guy I wanted. Holy schnikes...Holy Jumpin!!!

4 1st place, 1 in a WC spot, and a 90 win pace team in 3rd place...of course Jeff is ahead of me...his teams are all playing well, to no surprise.

In the am cycle, mensu's team 1-hit me in the 120 mil league.
In the pm cycle, mensu's team 1-hit me in the variable cap league.

Thank goodness I'm not playing him anywhere else.

Posted by justinlee_24 on 8/13/2019 2:52:00 PM (view original):
I'm seeing a lot of right handed starters with really low HR/9 (<0.25) and >2 ERC# in the $130M theme where everyone has high average hitting teams. I think they are going to get destroyed by all the left handed average hitters...probably to the tune of 5.50-6.50 ERA lol.

I've had this on my mind for a while now as I've watched my 130M team struggle. But interestingly this hasn't been the problem.

My two main RHP are '68 Gibson (14-11, 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) and '64 Chance (12-12, 4.09, 1.38), who are faring well enough despite those LH average guys. I've been fearing a blowup, but they're OK. My two best RP are righties, too.

However, '33 Hubbell (8-19, 4.91, 1.56) is taking all kinds of abuse. One would have thought as the LH in the rotation he'd be doing better than that. There are a lot of '33 Hubbells in the league, and mine seems to just be underperforming the most.

Posted by redcped on 9/19/2019 7:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by justinlee_24 on 8/13/2019 2:52:00 PM (view original):
I'm seeing a lot of right handed starters with really low HR/9 (<0.25) and >2 ERC# in the $130M theme where everyone has high average hitting teams. I think they are going to get destroyed by all the left handed average hitters...probably to the tune of 5.50-6.50 ERA lol.

I've had this on my mind for a while now as I've watched my 130M team struggle. But interestingly this hasn't been the problem.

My two main RHP are '68 Gibson (14-11, 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) and '64 Chance (12-12, 4.09, 1.38), who are faring well enough despite those LH average guys. I've been fearing a blowup, but they're OK. My two best RP are righties, too.

However, '33 Hubbell (8-19, 4.91, 1.56) is taking all kinds of abuse. One would have thought as the LH in the rotation he'd be doing better than that. There are a lot of '33 Hubbells in the league, and mine seems to just be underperforming the most.

Well, 1968 Gibson is a pretty good RH SP who doesn't really meet either criteria (HR/9 of 0.32 and an ERC # of 1.68). I'd expect him to be doing just fine.
Even 1964 Dean Chance doesn't qualify since he has an ERC # of 1.83. This doesn't mean that I expect them to be super dominant, but they aren't exactly cannon fodder SPs. 33 Carl Hubbell may be a lefty, but he would qualify under all other measures so it isn't stunning that he's getting knocked around.

Who has a tougher division? These 2 never seem to lose...

East	W-L	PCT	GB	Division	1-Run Games	Extra Inning	RS	RA	Exp. Pct.	Owner	LIVE
Last Place Finish	72-42	0.632	-	13-8	16-16	2-3	543	459	0.577	schwarze
LXX	70-44	0.614	2	15-6	10-14	1-5	572	465	0.596	wink0094
$70M First/Last	64-50	0.561	8	9-12	13-13	3-3	527	423	0.599	DoctorKz
Chico and The Kooz, Man	53-61	0.465	19	5-16	13-20	4-3	487	500	0.488	vilefileman

Here's one...

Guesswork I	72-42	0.632	-	-	8-2	L1	35-24	37-18	0-0	sford
Storm Chasers	69-45	0.605	3	-	7-3	L1	41-17	28-28	0-0	rbow923
Chicks Hate This League	67-47	0.588	5	-	5-5	L1	32-26	35-21	0-0	odalisgagne
Mamakin	61-53	0.535	11	-	6-4	W3	31-28	30-25	0-0	greenies

Yep...my team had a 16 game win streak in that league and is still outside looking in.

Sigh...

Central	W-L	PCT	GB	Division	1-Run Games	Extra Inning	RS	RA	Exp. Pct.	Owner	LIVE
Honus and Claude	73-42	0.635	-	11-10	15-18	4-2	596	379	0.697	jfranco77
$090M - Ed Walsh & Cy Seymour	72-43	0.626	1	14-7	19-10	3-3	670	516	0.624	NebHusker
b) Collins-White Syndrome	70-45	0.609	3	12-9	21-11	4-1	525	451	0.569	BigScungil
Banks-Caruthers LET'S PITCH TWO	50-65	0.435	23	5-16	12-8	4-3	530	636	0.413	gwhouse

2 weeks till we reach the end of the regular season. ..

Eerily quiet. Almost as quiet as Wrigley after that trainwreck of a weekend.