What doesn't surprise me is the play of nebhusker and redcped. They were really strong over in Tagteam.

Posted by DoctorKz on 9/13/2019 6:35:00 AM (view original):
What doesn't surprise me is the play of nebhusker and redcped. They were really strong over in Tagteam.

Thank you for the praise. Team Jason enjoyed that challenge for sure, and we're both just hoping to hold on and get through to R2.

A schwarze this morning certainly helped my cause. My second of the round, I think.

Sorry if there've been any questions, don't have time to catch up right now, will do so over the weekend. Largely haven't even been on WIS is a few days

My first 0-6 of the season knocks me back out of the cage. Competitive tourney for sure this year

.548 is the current cutoff, nearly an 89 win average...

By comparison .523 was the cutoff at last year's midway point of Round 1.

Posted by DoctorKz on 9/13/2019 6:33:00 PM (view original):
.548 is the current cutoff, nearly an 89 win average...

By comparison .523 was the cutoff at last year's midway point of Round 1.

What do you think is accounting for that difference? Does the size of the field matter, or just more really good sim players entered this year?

Posted by redcped on 9/13/2019 6:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by DoctorKz on 9/13/2019 6:33:00 PM (view original):
.548 is the current cutoff, nearly an 89 win average...

By comparison .523 was the cutoff at last year's midway point of Round 1.

What do you think is accounting for that difference? Does the size of the field matter, or just more really good sim players entered this year?

I think it has more to do with how bad the bottom of the field is... two guys are below 0.300 win % (with most or all of their teams in the fatigue hell death spiral) and 6 are below 0.400 win %. This is feeding a ton of wins to everyone else which is in turn inflating the number of wins needed to make it to the cage.

I'm not sure how to judge it. Last year's final standings of Round 1 saw approx 20% of the field average less than 75 wins. This year's field has less than 20% at or below .450 win pct..Feel free to evaluate more in depth...I really don't think too many teams are benefiting a lot from those death spiral teams.

It's only a single measuring stick, but I checked how many of the bottom 5 owners' teams are in my leagues. Across all 6 combined, they are in there 7 times. But 5 of those are in the opposite league, so I face each of them just twice all season. I've gone 7-3 against them, so I've hardly feasted.

That leaves 2 in my same league (neither in my division) across 6 leagues. They have win pcts of .376 and .333. Neither is in a death spiral. I'm 6-0 against each of them so far.

Regardless of the year there are going to be teams at the bottom, and they are likely to be sub-.400 teams I'd expect to do well against anyway. So I'd say for me at least it hasn't meant more than a couple extra wins at most. Small sample, of course, but 19-3 against the five lowest-ranked teams doesn't seem all that surprising.

Posted by DoctorKz on 9/13/2019 7:57:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure how to judge it. Last year's final standings of Round 1 saw approx 20% of the field average less than 75 wins. This year's field has less than 20% at or below .450 win pct..Feel free to evaluate more in depth...I really don't think too many teams are benefiting a lot from those death spiral teams.

Let's define a death spiral team as one with a winning % < 0.300. For calculation purposes, we'll say the avg. winning % of said teams is 0.200.

There are 17 such teams in this WISC Round 1 (and 7 that are below 0.200).

Each one of these death spiral teams play their conference mates 12 times for a total of 132 such games. Therefore, approximately 40 wins in total will be gifted to their conference mates per death spiral team. That translates to around 680 free wins, which is 1.46% of the 46656 total wins that will be recorded in WISC. The difference between a 0.548 cutoff and a 0.523 cutoff is about 2.5%.

Last year, there were 7 such teams in Round 1 (and none below 0.200). For calculation purposes, we'll say the avg. winning % of said teams is 0.250.

That's only 33 gifted wins per death spiral team, and 231 total free wins, which is 0.66% of the 34992 total wins that was recorded in last year's Round 1.

Overall, it looks like about 1/3 of the increase in wins needed to make Round 2 can be attributed to Death spiral teams.

Here are the advanced standings from the midway point

Pre-Rank	Rank	Owner	GB	Runs					Division				1-Run					Extra Innings
				Scored	Given Up	Delta	Expected Win%	Win% Delta	Wins	Losses	Win%	Win% Delta	Games	Wins	Losses	Win%	Win% Delta	Games	Wins	Losses	Win%	Win% Delta
4	1	schwarze	2	2515	2041	474	0.603	0.000	80	46	0.635	0.032	142	78	64	0.549	-0.054	40	21	19	0.525	-0.078
9	2	mensu1954	11	2273	1912	361	0.586	-0.013	73	53	0.579	-0.019	134	80	54	0.597	-0.002	40	32	8	0.800	0.201
12	3	jbohrman	5	2607	2069	538	0.614	0.025	82	44	0.651	0.062	130	71	59	0.546	-0.042	35	21	14	0.600	0.012
7	4	jmissirlis	11	2578	2016	562	0.621	0.034	69	57	0.548	-0.039	126	62	64	0.492	-0.094	55	28	27	0.509	-0.077
54	5	NebHusker	11	2452	2141	311	0.567	-0.013	63	63	0.500	-0.080	132	77	55	0.583	0.003	51	27	24	0.529	-0.051
20	6	contrarian23	16	2451	2136	315	0.568	0.000	75	51	0.595	0.027	131	71	60	0.542	-0.026	49	31	18	0.633	0.065
31	6	redcped	11	2508	2170	338	0.572	0.004	73	53	0.579	0.011	123	65	58	0.528	-0.039	47	29	18	0.617	0.049
39	6	calhoop	12	2496	2072	424	0.592	0.024	72	54	0.571	0.004	141	72	69	0.511	-0.057	40	24	16	0.600	0.032
78	9	daddyzander	17	2602	2266	336	0.569	0.003	70	56	0.556	-0.010	147	79	68	0.537	-0.028	54	35	19	0.648	0.082
15	10	milest	14	2368	1943	425	0.598	0.034	71	55	0.563	0.000	124	65	59	0.524	-0.040	48	26	22	0.542	-0.022
74	10	Jtpsops	9	2627	2260	367	0.575	0.011	75	51	0.595	0.031	116	63	53	0.543	-0.021	37	16	21	0.432	-0.131
46	12	Humdogs	5	2342	2078	264	0.560	-0.002	63	63	0.500	-0.062	117	66	51	0.564	0.002	43	18	25	0.419	-0.143
52	12	DoctorKz	14	2616	2208	408	0.584	0.022	71	55	0.563	0.002	112	59	53	0.527	-0.035	35	17	18	0.486	-0.076
13	14	jfranco77	23	2571	2017	554	0.619	0.059	70	56	0.556	-0.004	126	55	71	0.437	-0.123	38	18	20	0.474	-0.086
19	14	justinlee_24	21	2436	2011	425	0.595	0.035	69	57	0.548	-0.012	139	72	67	0.518	-0.042	50	31	19	0.620	0.060
38	14	odalisgagne	20	2344	2025	319	0.573	0.013	65	61	0.516	-0.044	131	68	63	0.519	-0.041	44	19	25	0.432	-0.128
1	17	brianjw	23	2265	1873	392	0.594	0.036	71	55	0.563	0.006	139	79	60	0.568	0.011	48	25	23	0.521	-0.037
18	17	barracuda3	22	2650	2160	490	0.601	0.043	75	51	0.595	0.038	113	52	61	0.460	-0.097	38	19	19	0.500	-0.058
30	19	mjkrunner	12	2525	2258	267	0.556	0.002	66	60	0.524	-0.030	122	58	64	0.475	-0.078	39	19	20	0.487	-0.066
51	19	BigScungil	22	2471	2201	270	0.558	0.004	74	52	0.587	0.034	122	64	58	0.525	-0.029	32	14	18	0.438	-0.116
2	21	discodemo	15	2465	1961	504	0.612	0.063	64	62	0.508	-0.041	135	61	74	0.452	-0.098	40	20	20	0.500	-0.049
10	21	doctorcc	21	2462	2080	382	0.584	0.034	72	54	0.571	0.022	140	77	63	0.550	0.001	54	32	22	0.593	0.043
42	21	tigerrott	3	2459	2153	306	0.566	0.017	71	55	0.563	0.014	128	69	59	0.539	-0.010	61	33	28	0.541	-0.008
47	21	ledfoot	24	2493	2191	302	0.564	0.015	69	57	0.548	-0.002	131	65	66	0.496	-0.053	40	22	18	0.550	0.001
6	25	mildnhazy	17	2448	2168	280	0.560	0.013	73	53	0.579	0.032	148	77	71	0.520	-0.027	55	24	31	0.436	-0.111
14	26	dougpalm	21	2298	2189	109	0.524	-0.021	65	61	0.516	-0.029	124	73	51	0.589	0.043	49	31	18	0.633	0.087
36	26	CLWECW	36	2920	2574	346	0.563	0.017	69	57	0.548	0.002	104	47	57	0.452	-0.093	33	13	20	0.394	-0.151
25	28	newarkwilder	40	2508	2241	267	0.556	0.015	63	63	0.500	-0.041	144	79	65	0.549	0.007	43	21	22	0.488	-0.053
3	29	ozomatli	23	2455	2259	196	0.542	0.002	76	50	0.603	0.064	137	67	70	0.489	-0.050	44	19	25	0.432	-0.107
22	30	sford	16	2182	1879	303	0.574	0.037	75	51	0.595	0.058	142	75	67	0.528	-0.009	45	21	24	0.467	-0.070
24	31	wink0094	30	2635	2390	245	0.549	0.014	66	60	0.524	-0.011	115	52	63	0.452	-0.083	32	14	18	0.438	-0.097
34	31	ejstockman	33	2407	2194	213	0.546	0.011	66	60	0.524	-0.011	147	81	66	0.551	0.016	56	26	30	0.464	-0.071
53	33	marinerrott	25	2364	2059	305	0.569	0.036	74	52	0.587	0.054	144	71	73	0.493	-0.040	56	30	26	0.536	0.003
5	34	rbow923	30	2346	2165	181	0.540	0.009	70	56	0.556	0.025	144	72	72	0.500	-0.031	46	23	23	0.500	-0.031
8	35	skunk206	32	2678	2452	226	0.544	0.015	68	58	0.540	0.011	123	61	62	0.496	-0.033	40	21	19	0.525	-0.004
26	35	dippedncrack	35	2308	2075	233	0.553	0.024	58	68	0.460	-0.068	158	79	79	0.500	-0.029	45	28	17	0.622	0.093
16	37	buddhagamer	49	2272	1968	304	0.571	0.047	68	58	0.540	0.015	126	55	71	0.437	-0.088	44	21	23	0.477	-0.047
49	37	thehuseman	24	2413	2303	110	0.523	-0.001	65	61	0.516	-0.009	144	79	65	0.549	0.024	43	26	17	0.605	0.080
60	39	jetscanes	41	2213	2041	172	0.540	0.018	59	67	0.468	-0.054	153	79	74	0.516	-0.006	63	28	35	0.444	-0.078
61	39	dahsdebater	25	2555	2313	242	0.550	0.027	70	56	0.556	0.033	132	69	63	0.523	0.000	41	22	19	0.537	0.014
55	41	thunder1008	43	2128	2064	64	0.515	-0.005	68	58	0.540	0.019	145	77	68	0.531	0.010	38	15	23	0.395	-0.126
59	41	The Taint	37	2280	2233	47	0.510	-0.010	66	60	0.524	0.003	139	67	72	0.482	-0.039	39	18	21	0.462	-0.059
11	43	redwingscup	39	2249	2048	201	0.547	0.028	61	65	0.484	-0.034	131	60	71	0.458	-0.061	44	25	19	0.568	0.050
41	43	firesalt	44	2642	2487	155	0.530	0.012	68	58	0.540	0.021	113	57	56	0.504	-0.014	39	17	22	0.436	-0.083
58	43	beauchamp	30	2381	2342	39	0.508	-0.010	65	61	0.516	-0.003	129	66	63	0.512	-0.007	47	23	24	0.489	-0.029
37	46	mllama54	39	2236	2075	161	0.537	0.021	63	63	0.500	-0.016	148	79	69	0.534	0.017	51	27	24	0.529	0.013
44	46	Jdh34	16	2360	2210	150	0.533	0.016	58	68	0.460	-0.056	153	80	73	0.523	0.006	59	25	34	0.424	-0.093
66	46	winnetka1	56	2196	2022	174	0.541	0.025	61	65	0.484	-0.032	129	63	66	0.488	-0.028	40	15	25	0.375	-0.141
79	46	trd3	26	2522	2464	58	0.512	-0.005	70	56	0.556	0.039	129	67	62	0.519	0.003	46	20	26	0.435	-0.082
35	50	Fusion27s	26	2372	2295	77	0.516	0.002	71	55	0.563	0.049	141	82	59	0.582	0.067	45	24	21	0.533	0.019
87	50	npg32433	42	2039	2145	-106	0.475	-0.040	66	60	0.524	0.009	141	81	60	0.574	0.060	55	32	23	0.582	0.067
86	52	hurst47	37	2347	2259	88	0.519	0.011	64	62	0.508	0.000	119	63	56	0.529	0.021	42	24	18	0.571	0.063
50	53	mick33	58	2198	2227	-29	0.493	-0.013	58	68	0.460	-0.046	122	67	55	0.549	0.043	31	16	15	0.516	0.010
23	54	skinndogg	45	2477	2372	105	0.522	0.018	59	67	0.468	-0.036	137	66	71	0.482	-0.022	34	17	17	0.500	-0.004
29	55	mpitt76	49	2332	2525	-193	0.460	-0.042	62	64	0.492	-0.010	128	70	58	0.547	0.045	38	25	13	0.658	0.156
63	55	vilefileman	57	2143	2095	48	0.511	0.009	62	64	0.492	-0.010	149	75	74	0.503	0.001	41	22	19	0.537	0.035
21	57	Relkcirts	43	2152	2130	22	0.505	0.005	62	64	0.492	-0.008	130	71	59	0.546	0.046	47	27	20	0.574	0.074
67	57	ballsweatsux	29	2243	2191	52	0.512	0.012	60	66	0.476	-0.024	131	65	66	0.496	-0.004	38	22	16	0.579	0.079
93	57	deathdealer	40	2297	2134	163	0.537	0.037	67	59	0.532	0.032	132	78	54	0.591	0.091	44	29	15	0.659	0.159
69	60	mickr9	33	2267	2386	-119	0.474	-0.024	67	59	0.532	0.034	148	81	67	0.547	0.049	47	21	26	0.447	-0.051
72	61	tab316us	39	2166	2316	-150	0.467	-0.027	66	60	0.524	0.030	143	77	66	0.538	0.045	41	16	25	0.390	-0.104
76	62	DarthDurron	37	2188	2225	-37	0.492	0.000	69	57	0.548	0.056	130	65	65	0.500	0.008	43	23	20	0.535	0.043
32	63	donaldjtrump	38	2382	2301	81	0.517	0.028	65	61	0.516	0.026	124	51	73	0.411	-0.078	39	24	15	0.615	0.126
73	63	toddcommish	42	2464	2468	-4	0.499	0.009	68	58	0.540	0.050	132	73	59	0.553	0.063	37	18	19	0.486	-0.003
91	63	midknight	48	2273	2427	-154	0.467	-0.022	63	63	0.500	0.010	116	60	56	0.517	0.028	38	21	17	0.553	0.063
57	66	sjh0825	48	2351	2454	-103	0.479	-0.009	69	57	0.548	0.060	97	54	43	0.557	0.069	36	21	15	0.583	0.096
28	67	markeking	42	2479	2569	-90	0.482	-0.003	58	68	0.460	-0.025	132	67	65	0.508	0.022	44	20	24	0.455	-0.031
48	67	frank_drebin	52	2410	2323	87	0.518	0.033	63	63	0.500	0.014	139	66	73	0.475	-0.011	42	20	22	0.476	-0.009
33	69	magicdreamer	43	2185	2102	83	0.519	0.038	62	64	0.492	0.011	144	63	81	0.438	-0.044	43	16	27	0.372	-0.109
84	69	thebubbaq	60	2354	2460	-106	0.478	-0.003	66	60	0.524	0.042	126	60	66	0.476	-0.005	45	21	24	0.467	-0.015
75	71	bheid408	41	2172	2160	12	0.503	0.027	64	62	0.508	0.033	138	56	82	0.406	-0.070	34	13	21	0.382	-0.093
70	72	moses_k	44	2551	2493	58	0.511	0.040	61	65	0.484	0.013	129	66	63	0.512	0.040	31	15	16	0.484	0.013
64	73	Chisock	49	2253	2467	-214	0.455	-0.014	61	65	0.484	0.015	138	72	66	0.522	0.053	51	28	23	0.549	0.080
80	73	razorclams	71	2221	2325	-104	0.477	0.008	52	74	0.413	-0.056	139	63	76	0.453	-0.016	48	26	22	0.542	0.073
92	75	loyalcanuck	67	2199	2433	-234	0.450	-0.017	65	61	0.516	0.049	133	69	64	0.519	0.052	38	18	20	0.474	0.007
40	76	stlbombers	33	2158	2258	-100	0.477	0.012	64	62	0.508	0.043	147	71	76	0.483	0.018	33	20	13	0.606	0.141
43	77	cubbies84	58	2193	2247	-54	0.488	0.025	64	62	0.508	0.045	114	50	64	0.439	-0.024	39	12	27	0.308	-0.155
45	78	gwhouse	71	2330	2569	-239	0.451	-0.008	62	64	0.492	0.033	114	58	56	0.509	0.050	30	14	16	0.467	0.008
88	79	Pebo	63	2082	2359	-277	0.438	-0.019	58	68	0.460	0.004	123	66	57	0.537	0.080	39	16	23	0.410	-0.047
17	80	crystalao	58	2284	2243	41	0.509	0.058	59	67	0.468	0.018	132	66	66	0.500	0.049	45	23	22	0.511	0.060
65	81	marvin_katko	57	2044	2429	-385	0.415	-0.032	57	69	0.452	0.006	128	58	70	0.453	0.007	40	20	20	0.500	0.053
82	82	nordawg	67	2366	2549	-183	0.463	0.022	56	70	0.444	0.004	114	53	61	0.465	0.025	32	12	20	0.375	-0.065
71	83	northof49	61	2048	2511	-463	0.399	-0.039	55	71	0.437	-0.002	126	61	65	0.484	0.046	37	19	18	0.514	0.075
83	83	gigrant	85	2364	2585	-221	0.455	0.017	46	80	0.365	-0.073	126	55	71	0.437	-0.002	31	14	17	0.452	0.013
77	85	greenies	71	2119	2385	-266	0.441	-0.007	56	70	0.444	-0.004	155	62	93	0.400	-0.049	47	20	27	0.426	-0.023
81	86	zlionsfan	62	2544	2778	-234	0.456	0.026	57	69	0.452	0.022	136	58	78	0.426	-0.004	33	18	15	0.545	0.115
68	87	big_dowg	80	2072	2368	-296	0.434	0.010	47	79	0.373	-0.051	135	71	64	0.526	0.102	41	19	22	0.463	0.040
62	88	tajohn	72	2036	2546	-510	0.390	-0.032	57	69	0.452	0.031	126	62	64	0.492	0.070	37	21	16	0.568	0.146
27	89	batandball	65	1839	2199	-360	0.412	-0.002	53	73	0.421	0.007	138	62	76	0.449	0.036	41	17	24	0.415	0.001
94	90	doctorwoo	87	2172	2635	-463	0.405	-0.005	46	80	0.365	-0.044	110	52	58	0.473	0.063	37	19	18	0.514	0.104
89	91	garmansouth	80	2244	2835	-591	0.385	0.002	37	89	0.294	-0.089	122	44	78	0.361	-0.022	30	13	17	0.433	0.051
56	92	clayolson1	124	1884	3104	-1220	0.269	-0.072	37	89	0.294	-0.048	114	48	66	0.421	0.079	39	16	23	0.410	0.069
96	93	sohio4ever	129	2066	2996	-930	0.322	-0.001	46	80	0.365	0.042	111	42	69	0.378	0.055	40	12	28	0.300	-0.023
95	94	spoonfed	115	1840	3005	-1165	0.273	-0.044	43	83	0.341	0.024	117	50	67	0.427	0.110	36	15	21	0.417	0.100
90	95	tridentric	177	2061	3877	-1816	0.220	-0.020	42	84	0.333	0.093	112	40	72	0.357	0.116	36	10	26	0.278	0.037
85	96	jrnyfan01	178	1974	5590	-3616	0.111	-0.122	32	94	0.254	0.021	93	36	57	0.387	0.155	28	11	17	0.393	0.160

Standings through 95 games. Added projected playoff teams

Pre Rank	Rank	Owner	Season									Projected Playoffs
			70M	90M	110M	120M	130M	Var	Wins	Win%	Last Cycle
9	1	mensu1954	60	53	56	69	53	54	345	0.605	4-2	5
54	2	NebHusker	57	62	52	53	59	56	339	0.595	4-2	5.5
4	3	schwarze	60	61	55	53	55	54	338	0.593	1-5	5.5
7	4	jmissirlis	58	59	57	56	54	50	334	0.586	4-2	6
19	5	justinlee_24	43	54	59	70	46	57	329	0.577	5-1	4
20	6	contrarian23	59	56	56	51	52	54	328	0.575	5-1	5
12	7	jbohrman	50	57	51	59	52	58	327	0.574	3-3	4.83
31	7	redcped	65	57	50	53	47	55	327	0.574	4-2	4
1	9	brianjw	50	48	49	67	60	51	325	0.570	4-2	2.33
78	10	daddyzander	58	47	56	48	60	54	323	0.567	5-1	4
13	11	jfranco77	50	59	54	57	56	46	322	0.565	3-3	4.83
52	11	DoctorKz	55	56	57	52	53	49	322	0.565	4-2	3
30	13	mjkrunner	47	56	59	58	57	44	321	0.563	4-2	4
14	14	dougpalm	62	50	42	56	59	50	319	0.560	4-2	3
15	14	milest	56	49	56	52	54	52	319	0.560	3-3	5
18	14	barracuda3	64	56	56	46	46	51	319	0.560	3-3	3
46	14	Humdogs	49	56	56	51	55	52	319	0.560	4-2	4
2	18	discodemo	56	54	52	53	40	63	318	0.558	3-3	5
39	19	calhoop	54	50	52	60	52	48	316	0.554	2-4	4
51	20	BigScungil	62	57	52	42	46	56	315	0.553	2-4	2
34	21	ejstockman	49	49	61	50	53	52	314	0.551	3-3	3
38	21	odalisgagne	50	50	54	47	58	55	314	0.551	3-3	3.33
42	23	tigerrott	53	53	58	49	53	47	313	0.549	3-3	4
3	24	ozomatli	50	53	54	56	39	60	312	0.547	3-3	3.5
47	24	ledfoot	58	57	50	62	39	46	312	0.547	3-3	4
74	24	Jtpsops	59	57	50	53	47	46	312	0.547	5-1	4
10	27	doctorcc	50	56	50	50	55	50	311	0.546	4-2	4
24	28	wink0094	57	50	55	47	49	52	310	0.544	4-2	3
6	29	mildnhazy	53	53	55	59	46	43	309	0.542	3-3	3
5	30	rbow923	51	58	49	42	55	52	307	0.539	5-1	2
36	30	CLWECW	47	54	51	49	53	53	307	0.539	3-3	2.5
22	32	sford	57	47	43	57	58	43	305	0.535	3-3	3
16	33	buddhagamer	46	50	47	52	52	56	303	0.532	3-3	2
26	33	dippedncrack	45	45	48	58	58	49	303	0.532	5-1	3
61	33	dahsdebater	50	48	51	52	48	54	303	0.532	3-3	1
25	36	newarkwilder	56	39	51	55	50	49	300	0.526	5-1	3
53	36	marinerrott	42	49	56	52	50	51	300	0.526	2-4	4
11	38	redwingscup	39	57	51	48	60	44	299	0.525	6-0	2
37	38	mllama54	54	47	54	45	48	51	299	0.525	2-4	2
49	38	thehuseman	49	55	49	52	46	48	299	0.525	3-3	2
66	38	winnetka1	45	56	48	47	53	50	299	0.525	3-3	2
35	42	Fusion27s	54	39	48	64	50	43	298	0.523	4-2	2.5
55	42	thunder1008	52	46	57	47	45	51	298	0.523	4-2	1.5
8	44	skunk206	40	61	45	45	58	47	296	0.519	1-5	3
23	45	skinndogg	52	52	44	51	43	53	295	0.518	3-3	1
41	45	firesalt	48	56	54	44	53	40	295	0.518	2-4	2
44	47	Jdh34	52	53	45	48	49	47	294	0.516	6-0	1
63	47	vilefileman	45	45	52	49	52	51	294	0.516	3-3	0.5
50	49	mick33	43	56	48	46	42	58	293	0.514	5-1	2
58	49	beauchamp	52	54	39	46	54	48	293	0.514	3-3	2
59	49	The Taint	44	47	49	48	44	61	293	0.514	4-2	1
87	52	npg32433	54	49	44	45	49	51	292	0.512	5-1	1.33
60	53	jetscanes	54	41	58	45	51	42	291	0.511	3-3	2
79	54	trd3	42	56	43	45	56	45	287	0.504	3-3	2
91	54	midknight	55	41	55	51	43	42	287	0.504	3-3	3
32	56	donaldjtrump	52	51	44	48	41	49	285	0.500	3-3	2
29	57	mpitt76	51	47	50	54	42	40	284	0.498	2-4	1
21	58	Relkcirts	41	41	59	47	49	46	283	0.496	3-3	1
48	59	frank_drebin	49	47	48	48	52	38	282	0.495	5-1	0.33
69	59	mickr9	45	51	38	41	56	51	282	0.495	1-5	3
67	61	ballsweatsux	43	40	50	48	49	51	281	0.493	2-4	1.33
86	61	hurst47	55	40	41	51	46	48	281	0.493	3-3	1
33	63	magicdreamer	49	45	46	48	42	49	279	0.489	2-4	0
76	63	DarthDurron	48	41	58	46	43	43	279	0.489	3-3	1
93	63	deathdealer	39	52	46	38	50	54	279	0.489	2-4	1
57	66	sjh0825	42	39	49	53	45	49	277	0.486	1-5	0.5
28	67	markeking	47	41	37	54	45	50	274	0.481	2-4	2
70	67	moses_k	40	47	44	44	48	51	274	0.481	2-4	1.5
73	69	toddcommish	50	44	44	36	51	45	270	0.474	1-5	0.5
92	69	loyalcanuck	43	42	39	49	41	56	270	0.474	3-3	1
72	71	tab316us	43	42	44	50	45	44	268	0.470	2-4	0
64	72	Chisock	49	40	44	40	50	44	267	0.468	2-4	0.33
75	72	bheid408	45	46	39	44	45	48	267	0.468	2-4	0
45	74	gwhouse	52	38	39	40	51	45	265	0.465	2-4	0
43	75	cubbies84	49	43	42	42	42	46	264	0.463	3-3	0.33
80	75	razorclams	45	38	48	38	48	47	264	0.463	3-3	0
40	77	stlbombers	44	35	47	40	49	48	263	0.461	4-2	0
88	77	Pebo	50	43	43	55	37	35	263	0.461	3-3	1
84	79	thebubbaq	43	48	39	43	49	40	262	0.460	3-3	0
17	80	crystalao	49	46	43	49	37	37	261	0.458	4-2	1
83	81	gigrant	43	40	42	40	38	53	256	0.449	1-5	0.5
65	82	marvin_katko	36	39	44	41	47	48	255	0.447	3-3	0.5
77	83	greenies	32	38	45	46	52	44	257	0.451	2-4	0
81	84	zlionsfan	46	36	41	46	34	46	249	0.437	2-4	0
82	85	nordawg	40	42	42	38	42	41	245	0.430	3-3	0
62	86	tajohn	34	40	41	44	40	43	242	0.425	2-4	0
71	86	northof49	20	34	48	43	44	53	242	0.425	2-4	1
68	88	big_dowg	40	33	44	46	32	45	240	0.421	2-4	0
27	89	batandball	43	38	40	36	46	36	239	0.419	2-4	0
94	90	doctorwoo	34	38	35	31	48	46	232	0.407	2-4	0
89	91	garmansouth	47	37	35	27	35	42	223	0.391	3-3	1
56	92	clayolson1	10	41	37	31	39	40	198	0.347	0-6	0
95	93	spoonfed	30	43	30	27	26	27	183	0.321	2-4	0
96	94	sohio4ever	28	36	27	27	32	31	181	0.318	3-3	0
90	95	tridentric	20	34	17	16	21	23	131	0.230	2-4	0
85	96	jrnyfan01	32	28	28	13	16	4	121	0.212	0-6	0

Posted by justinlee_24 on 9/13/2019 9:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by DoctorKz on 9/13/2019 7:57:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure how to judge it. Last year's final standings of Round 1 saw approx 20% of the field average less than 75 wins. This year's field has less than 20% at or below .450 win pct..Feel free to evaluate more in depth...I really don't think too many teams are benefiting a lot from those death spiral teams.

Let's define a death spiral team as one with a winning % < 0.300. For calculation purposes, we'll say the avg. winning % of said teams is 0.200.

There are 17 such teams in this WISC Round 1 (and 7 that are below 0.200).

Each one of these death spiral teams play their conference mates 12 times for a total of 132 such games. Therefore, approximately 40 wins in total will be gifted to their conference mates per death spiral team. That translates to around 680 free wins, which is 1.46% of the 46656 total wins that will be recorded in WISC. The difference between a 0.548 cutoff and a 0.523 cutoff is about 2.5%.

Last year, there were 7 such teams in Round 1 (and none below 0.200). For calculation purposes, we'll say the avg. winning % of said teams is 0.250.

That's only 33 gifted wins per death spiral team, and 231 total free wins, which is 0.66% of the 34992 total wins that was recorded in last year's Round 1.

Overall, it looks like about 1/3 of the increase in wins needed to make Round 2 can be attributed to Death spiral teams.

This is great analysis. I wonder how those 231 free wins have been distributed.

Fun stuff...none of my teams are more than 2 games out of a playoff spot.