It always hurts more when the negative streak happens after a positive streak.
Let's say you have a team that is theoretically a .525 team (85-77). in other words, if you played that same team in 100 leagues against the same teams, they would average 85 wins. They may win 95 a few times and also win 75 a few times.
There are a number of ways to get to .525 during the season.
* You can start off playing .500 for the first 80 games, win 8 in a row, then play .500 the rest of the way. That's 85-77.
* You can start off playing .550 ball for the first 80 games (44-36), then play .500 the rest of the way. That's 85-77.
* You could start off playing .600 ball for the first 80 games (48-32), then lose 8 in a row, then play .500 the rest of the way. That's 85-77.
In each example, you have a .525 team, but in the third example, you might think you have a .600 team based on the first 80 games. Maybe you were lucky in those early games. Your actual W-L record thru 80 games isn't the best indicator to predict the next 80 games. I like looking at run differential and the Exp Win%. Also, record in 1-run games. If you are outperforming your Exp Win%, then expect some regression.
Of course, you have to adjust ExpWin% if you have blowouts due to fatigued mop-up pitchers (pitching either against you or for you).
9/16/2019 3:57 PM (edited)