Hello all. I have played this game for 4 real-life years now, and I have now hit 50 seasons. I have spent the last 3 years working on a Hoops Dynasty Spreadsheet, which I am now sharing with the community.
Here it is.
UPDATE 8/15/2019 at 9:20 PM ET
The zone bug that marl_karx found is now fixed.
The Sheet Includes the Following Features:
- Highly Accurate Rebounding Ratings for All Players
- Highly Accurate Ball Handling Ability Ratings for All Players
- Highly Accurate Defensive Ratings for All Players (includes consideration of position and defensive system)
- Highly Accurate Offensive Ratings for All Players (includes consideration of position and defensive system)
- Highly Accurate Overall Rating System of Players (by position and system), usable to recruit off of.
- Automatic Pulling of Any Team's Ratings and Stats in 1 Minute
- Advanced Statistical Breakdown of Any Team's Statistics in 1 Minute
- Advanced Statistical Breakdown of Any Player's Statistics in 1 Minute
- (BEST PART) Highly Accurate and Immersive Gameplanning, Complete with Spread and Win% for any game in under 10 minutes. You will understand every sim of an HD game to a much deeper level, understanding why you won or lost. The game planning feature helps me decide depth chart, tempo, +- positioning, distro, and double teams for every game.
- Includes Offensive and Defensive Sets and HCA.
- Does NOT Consider Tempo and +- positioning when determining chance and odds.
How to Use the Sheet:
First, you cannot edit the 'Demo' sheet. You need to go to file -> make a copy first.
The core of the sheet is the "Matchup" page. However, I will first explain how to use the "Team Compare" and "Opp Compare" Pages.
1. Enter your team's ID in Cell B1 in page "Team Compare." The team ID can be found by clicking on your team profile at WIS and looking at the numbers in the URL...
it may either be 4 or 5 digits long depending on what world you are in. Your team's ratings and statistics will automatically be pulled into the spreadsheet.
2. In the A column in the yellow highlighted spaces, put your depth chart into the sheet. Your starting point guard should be labeled PG1 to the left, your backup point guard PG2 and so on. If a player plays multiple slots on your depth chart, you can paste the entire row below into rows 20-22 like I did with Kenneth Ropp in the Demo and set the second position there. The player will appear in both spots. If you want to see your 11th and 12th player's ratings, you can label them "BN1" and "BN2." Shooting Guard formulas are used for BN1 and Power Forward formulas are used for BN2. They will not be used in-game calculations, so I am sorry to FB/Press players who use a 12 guy rotation out there. The matchup page should still work well even if you only put your top 10 in, but obviously, its optimal use is for 10 or fewer player rotations.
3. To analyze a matchup between your team and an opponent, repeat steps 1 and 2 for your opponent. I recommend reading through the start of your opponent's last game to determine their depth chart. When you get good at it this part will only take a minute or so. The starting five is easy, and then you have to look at the play-by-play to determine what positions backups are subbed into.
4. Go to the Matchup page. Edit the 4 numbers in boxes F17, H17, J17, and L17.
- Team Offense (F17): 1 Motion, 2 Flex, 3 Triangle, 4 Fastbreak. This is used to determine which IQ and which player formulas to use.
- Team Defense (H17): Man 1, 2-3 Zone 2, 3-2 Zone 3, Press 4. This is used to determine which IQ and which player formulas to use. You will notice that a team's defensive ratings will be averaged if zone is chosen. If someone is daring and plays combo Press, put in the number for the non-press defense.
- Site (J17): 1 Home, 2 Away, 3 Neutral. Used to Calculate Home Court.
- Division (L17): 1, 2, or 3. Used to Calculate Homecourt.
Next, We Need to Enter in the Sets your Opponent Plays:
- Opp Offense (F33): 1 Motion, 2 Flex, 3 Triangle, 4 Fastbreak. This is used to determine which IQ and which player formulas to use.
- Opp Defense (H33): Man 1, 2-3 Zone 2, 3-2 Zone 3, Press 4. This is used to determine which IQ and which player formulas to use. You will notice that a team's defensive ratings will be averaged if zone is chosen. If someone is daring and plays combo Press, put in the number for the non-press defense.
You are done! Now I will explain the features that this sheet gives and how you can see them.
How to Access All the Features:
- Highly Accurate Rebounding Ratings for All Players
- This can be found in Column AB on the matchup page.
- Highly Accurate Ball Handling Ability Ratings for All Players
- This can be found in Column AC on the matchup page.
- Highly Accurate Defensive Ratings for All Players (includes consideration of position and defensive system)
- This can be found in Column AE on the matchup page.
- Highly Accurate Offensive Ratings for All Players (includes consideration of position and defensive system)
- This can be found in Column AD on the matchup page.
- Highly Accurate Overall Rating System of Players (by position and system)
- This can be found in Column AA on the matchup page.
- Automatic Pulling of Any Team's Ratings and Stats in 1 Minute
- This is done with the simple TeamID function I explained how to use above.
- Advanced Statistical Breakdown of Any Full Team's Statistics in 1 Minute
- This is found in rows 36 to 53 on the matchup page. This isn't too useful generally, but it's worth a look mainly to see: does the opponent offensive rebound well, do they defensive rebound well, do they force turnovers, and do they commit turnovers.
- Advanced Statistical Breakdown of Any Player on Any Team's Statistics in 1 Minute
- (BEST PART) Highly Accurate and Immersive Gameplanning, Complete with Spread and Win% for any game in under 5 minutes. You will understand every sim of an HD game to a much deeper level, understanding why you won or lost. The game planning feature helps me decide depth chart, tempo, +- positioning, distro, and double teams for every game.
- A key column is the vs. column (AF) which gives each player's OFF - the DEF guarding them. Your goal when game-planning should often be to maximize your vs scores while to keep your opponent's down. Try to put your best scorers up against their worst defenders and your best defenders against their best scorers. Many people gameplan daily in DII and DIII, but this is of highly underrated importance at DI. I slightly change my distro every day at DI, while at DII I would completely overhaul my lineup and distro every day to match up to my opponent.
- When choosing who to double-team, focus on finding a balance between a player's vs rating and their distro. If there is a player who looks dangerous offensively but only scores 7 per game, it is not worth double-teaming them.
- When choosing +-, also find a happy medium between what looks most dangerous and what your opponent has done in the past. Don't play +3 if your opponents shooting guards look to be their best offense but yet the opposing coach only has them shooting 8 threes per game combined.
- W17, X17, and Y17 give your team's net Rebounding, Ball Handling, and O/D Advantage respectively. I took this data from 200 real HD games and ran a regression with the final result to determine the win probability and line for a game based on these numbers. Remember, 85% may seem like nearly a sure bet, but it is 85%, not 100%. You will lose 5-6 of those games per season if you play a full season's worth of 85% games, so don't expect to win 100% of them. Also, note that tempo and +- are not taken into effect but have a relatively large impact on the real game.
There is a lot of info here and you may not find all of it useful. That is okay, I promise you will really get the hang of game-planning with this sheet over time. I can put together a fantastic gameplan in less than 10 minutes now, from opening chrome to being done entirely. Again, if you have any question I ask you to sitemail me.
If you want a demo of how I would gameplan for a real future game you have using this sheet please sitemail me a link to edit your sheet and your opponent and I will then send my recommended gameplan.
Methodology:
Skeptical of how and whether these formulas work? I will explain every single part of the sheet here.
The formulas were created in tandem with the0nlyis, and the "base" of the sheet was created by HughesJr. I've put in some good time renovating, but it definitely started with Hughes. HughesJr's thesis was that a player in HD can be broken down into 4 components: offense, defense, rebounding, and ball handling. There is a 5th component: stamina which is a multiplier and determines how much a player can play at their peak level. HughesJr created original offensive and defensive formulas that were solidly accurate. 0nly and I pooled brains and spent time making these formulas, from both our brains and past dev chat answers, which are meant to mimic the real formulas the sim engine uses. After a player comes to your school I urge you to not think of them as a simple overall rating, but rather as both set of 5 ratings (O,D,BH,REB,STA) at the very least.
These ratings are highly accurate in my experience, I have very rarely seen a team vastly over or underperform for a whole season or a player overperform or underperform for a whole career. I go into every game with a great understanding with what I am going to see when I open my phone the next morning.
This sheet is the core of me as an HD player and it has, therefore, lent me success: it is relatively high quality but I am sure it can be even a slight bit better. I have spent the past 2-3 years tweaking it to make it as accurate as possible. If you disagree with my formulas, you can change them on the "Ranking Factors" page to your own liking: the formulas used on "Matchup" will change automatically. Please also send me a sitemail telling me what you changed and why!
Recruiting off the Sheet:
Recruiting Demo Sheet (thank you very much to marl_karx)
Enter the player name into B2 and Ratings from E2 to P2. Go to sheet "overall" to see ratings.
I created the overall position rating for aid while recruiting. Now that I have used the sheet for a long time and understand how the R, BH, O, and D ratings work together, I no longer need the overall when recruiting, but it is useful especially for beginners.
Stats Sheet:
How to use: Put your Team ID into A1 on the "StatSheet" and your Opponents ID into A22 on the "StateSheet"
More information can never hurt. I only use this for pre-CT/NT lineup adjustments, because with small sample size, the stats sheet can actually hurt you by giving you random information. Note that my SG Hartman (at publication) currently has 1.25 PPPU. It is ludicrous to think he could keep this up. He is just shooting 49% from 3. No player in the HD universe can keep that up. Take the stats with a grain of salt, but also look at them every other day to try to get more information about your team. Note stuff like my resident idiots Sieraski at 9.9% at only 28.4 usage, Hanson at 6.8% TO at 16 usage but also my low key huge contributors in surprising categories, like my center Jones at 6.5 A vs 2.9 TO and my PG Clark at 7.3 Steal, and even my SF Sieradski and 8.4 ORB and 22 RB.
Note:
All the % stats (the core of this sheet, from AA to AG columns) aren't true % but measured on a per-minute basis, except for TO which is also divided by Usage in Column AE.
Below are "baselines" of what stats I look for when trying to make a F4 team assuming you're playing against about a 15 SOS schedule:
ORB: 3 for PG, 3.5 SG, 5 SF, 7 PF, 7.5 C
REB: 11 for PG, 12 SG, 16 SF, 24 PF, 26 C
AST (depends on Distro: if one scores 20 PPG but lagging in AST it is not a concern): 17 PG, 13 SG, 7 SF, 4.5 PF, 4 C
TO/Usage (I perfer this to the raw TO stat): .27 PG, .27 SG, .28 SF, .33 PF, .37 C
STL: 4 for PG, 3.8 for SG, 2.5 for SF, 2.2 for PF, 2.2 for C
BLK: 1 for SF, 3.5 for PF, 4.5 for C
PPPU: 1.02 for all positions
Points Above Average per 20. This heavily undervalues defense but still estimates a player's value solidly:
- For a player to be in my NT Rotation I like to see 0, but if it's a freshman whos been starting you will see this jump about .5 if they start coming off the bench and if you 0 out their distro, especially guards. A lot of Hanson's negative value comes from his .88 PPPU used so when he gets benched and I turn PPPU down
- To target F4, I like to see 1.7 from each starter. I obviously do not have that on Illinois this year.
- A player is generally insanely effective (all-conference level--truly top 3 at position in a Top 3 conference) at 2.5. To target the F4 I usually like to have at least three of these guys.
- If a player is at about 3.5 (like my new best friend Douglas Clark is on Illinois) you have a fking stud on your team. Having 1 of these guys makes you feel pretty on top of the world.
No Premium Version: It is all free but I would appreciate a small donation if you enjoy the sheet
I hope everyone enjoys this sheet. I never intend to have any premium version but to make this completely free and open forever. However, it's taken so much work and
if you enjoy it, it will earn you many more credits to play HD for free, and it would be very appreciated if you donate a couple of dollars here. It should only take a minute of two; CheddarUp is like PayPal but is more efficient.
P.S
I am a (relatively) well-achieving coach, in the last 18 years in Wooden I have 16 conference championships and 12 CT championships in consistently Top 3 national conferences, 2 national championships, 6 final four appearances, and 10 top ten RPI seasons. If you think this sheet sucks I urge you to sitemail me and tell me why, but I can confirm it has worked at least reasonably well for me. I can promise you this sheet will at least make you a slightly better player when you learn how to use it, improving your understanding of the sim engine and therefore how to recruit to win games with the sim engine.
Also, credits to shaf for the original Stat Sheet, which I've edited to add the new formulas I discussed.
Finally, if you have any questions about anything about the sheet, including how to use it, please sitemail me! I will help anyone as quickly as I can. I recommend you spent time on a computer at home reading over the instructions line by line. Thank you!