Yeah, yeah, I know I’m late. Work has been kicking my ***. Because I can see teams now, I’m going to give each team an initial impression just from the picks, a second evaluation based on the actual roster, then a final verdict. Going division by division, starting with the Atlantic.
benhoidal - Dennis Rodman, Bill Walton, James Harden, Jamario Moon, Tom Boerwinkle, Dirk, Tyreke Evans
Initial reaction: Did someone say ben always drafts the same guys on cookie-cutter teams? Because, uh, this is not that. Full-blown mad scientist mode here, starting with the un-ben-like first round pick of Rodman and then going into the twilight zone with Harden - and Ben told me it was full-blown 18-19 Harden! SuperHarden has a lot of positives, but the #1 problem he presents is: how do you avoid massive swings in usage on the court when he comes out? It's hard to get a backup who's even within 10 percentage points of usage. Looks like Evans is the only drafted guy who qualifies, and he's about 12% off (but only one usage tier lower). I don't get the Boerwinkle pick - you didn't need a board lord, even with Dirk, and there were cleaner options available if assists is what you were after. Ben is a master, but this experiment may be too tough to pull off, particularly with all the salary devoted to Rodman and Harden.
On further inspection: Back to Harden and usage, which is the defining question for this team, IMO. With Evans backing up Harden, you either have to have way too much usage when Harden is in the lineup, or be well short when he's out. Ben has chosen the latter, which is the right decision; it's only for 14 mpg or so. But the team may be around or under 90% total usage when Evans is in. Will it be good enough the rest of the time to make up for what will likely be 14 mpg of offensive struggles? I'm not sure it will be. Efficiency is OK, but not great. You went with shorter minute versions of Dirk and Rodman to fit under the salary cap; is 92-93 Rodman worth a first-round pick, even with all the boards? (When he's out, the oreb is underwhelming, even though the dreb will be more than fine.) Thanks to the salary savings you avoided too many garbage minutes on the bench, with Cardinal being the closest. Defense should be fine, but what is this team great at other than defensive rebounding?
The verdict: You sacrificed a lot to build around 18--19 Harden. I'm glad to see someone try, but it's hard to see this team living up to your normal standards. If the manager was anyone but you, I'd say this team was out of the playoff picture. Since it's you, I'll give you an outside chance. But feels like 40ish wins to me.
Sappy – Shaq, D-Wade, Shawn Marion, Rajon Rondo, Clifford Ray, Reggie Evans, Jason Williams
Initial reaction: Is there such thing as a -4 defensive positioning setting? I’d like to use it on this team. Marion and D-Wade shoot a handful of threes, but Rondo and the big guys shoot none. Defense is good with Wade, Marion, and Rondo, though the bench brings that down. Assists should be fine with Rondo and Wade. But boy, is this an awkward fit. Shaq and Wade will be fighting by midseason after D-Wade bricks his 10th step-back 20-footer of the game. I like the concept of building around a high-usage post and a high-usage guard, but Wade’s efficiency can be tough to live with. And given that those guys are on board you probably needed lower-usage guys than Rondo and Marion to follow. Not feeling this.
On further inspection: It may be worse than I thought. Desperate for threes, you chose a better outside shooting (but much less efficient) Marion season. The bench brings some, but only from Jason Williams. (Full disclosure: I thought this was Jason Williams the big man, not the point guard, initially.) There’s too much usage, particularly in the starting lineup, and not enough efficiency. Defense will be fine, but you had to downgrade to a worse Rondo, presumably for salary purposes. The bench is full of garbage. This…just doesn’t work.
The verdict: Welcome to next season’s lottery, because I can’t see this team sniffing the playoffs.
Mikee1 – John Stockton, Scottie Pippen, Shawn Kemp, Bill Russell, Ray Allen, Enes Kanter, Nick Anderson
Initial reaction: I like most of the individual pieces. Is the whole as good as the sum of the parts? Allen/Pippen/Kemp as the high-scoring lead trio; good. Stockton as the uber-efficient distributor; good. Russell as the board-lord whose efficiency problems are offset by everyone else – sure. Kanter and Anderson are good pieces off the bench. Everyone seems like good value…but is there money to do the best seasons of all these guys?
Upon further inspection: Nope, and Allen is the casualty, with you having to sacrifice to a lower-minute, lower-efficiency version. Was that worth getting in Nick Anderson’s best season? Efficiency is still fine, but usage is on the low side with less Allen and more Anderson. The other problem, as I’m finding in the DH52 with a Stockton team – a TON of turnovers. Kemp in the mix doesn’t help. This team should defend pretty well, but with potential usage penalties and a boatload of turnovers, not to mention Russell’s low efficiency, offense may be more of a struggle than you’d think for a team with Stockton, Kemp, and Allen.
The verdict: Major flaws will likely hold this team towards middle of the pack.
Jhsukow – Artis Gilmore, Paul George, Manu Ginobili, Andre Iguodala, Nate McMillan, Swen Nater, Don Buse
Initial reaction: Love the PG13/Manu backcourt pairing; I love PG13’s 2018-19 season even though it has yet to love me back. Hopefully you can make it work better than me. But Artis – as I said earlier, I just don’t see him working at this cap. And part of the reason is it makes you take cheap guys with major flaws like Nater and Buse later in the draft. Does this team have enough post scoring?
Upon further inspection: Despite the presence of Nater, this team should play very good D; didn’t give that enough consideration initially. But offense – oh dear. What is Muggsy Bogues doing on a team that already has more than 4400 minutes from McMillan and Buse? Add Muggsy’s 1700+ and more often than not two of those guys will be on the floor. That means way too little usage, and rebounding struggles, for half the game or more. Not to mention Muggsy can’t shoot straight, which offsets much of the gains you might otherwise get from his assists. And it looks like Nater’s primary backup at PF is – Paul George? Plus a bunch of 200-minute stiffs? Yikes.
Verdict: I have a feeling that after this season, you’ll see why Artis is on my do-not-draft list at this cap.
Mptrey – Lebron, Dikembe Mutombo, Nikola Jokic, Danny Green, Pascal Siakam, Nerlens Noel, Charles Oakley
Initial reaction: If you can make this work salary-wise, we’re dead, because this team is terrifying. Lebron/Green/Siakam/Jokic/Mutombo is an amazing starting five. Led, of course, by Lebron, my #1 player at this cap. Mutombo will have trouble covering the Joker’s D because he’s under 95% at PF, but otherwise I see no flaws. Without crunching the numbers, maybe just a touch high on usage? Maybe we’ll see one of the lower-usage Jokic seasons, though.
Upon further inspection: Yeah, we’re probably dead – or at least your division is. There are some areas of concern – post defense, because you chose a lower-defense Mutombo; fouls are also pretty high; the bench is mostly crap; but Lebron and killer efficiency make up for it. Lots of threes; reasonable turnovers; not the best Jokic season but, IMO, the best choice for this team. I’m having a hard time seeing any other team in the division challenging you.
Verdict: I see a first-round bye in your future. And a rested Lebron may spell doom for the rest of us in the playoffs.
Redbooda: Steph Curry, Clint Capela, Derek Harper, John Wall, Rick Barry, John Collins, Bob Rule
Initial reaction: Steph Curry – great to build around, as I proved last year! You hardly need any other threes, which is nice. Clint Capela is a solid piece. John Collins is a solid piece. Derek Harper has some solid seasons that can complement Curry. The rest . . . oh no. No no no. Rick Barry, Bob Rule, John “the team destroyer” Wall . . . oh no. This is not looking good, but maybe the end result will be better than I think.
Upon further inspection: Nope, this is worse than I thought. A big-minute Rick Barry??? The 49-defense Capela when you badly needed D??? And Bob Rule is a regular pupu platter of terribleness – too much low-efficiency usage, low defense, high fouls, high turnovers, bad rebounding for a post. With Curry, Collins, and Capela, you’ll score, but your team will be bad at basically everything else.
The verdict: Too much usage, not nearly enough of everything else, and bad defense to boot. It’s becoming a redbooda formula for 20 wins.