Hey ben, I have a pseudo-related question which is: how do you do your forecasting?

The way I do it is that I get all the minute adjusted numbers for usage, reb%, to%, ast%, def% and ts% and also the sum 3PM and fls/g. Then I calculate the rank for each team against the other teams in those categories (except for usage). There is a final ranking for each team which is .25(ts%)+.25(def)+.5(avgrank for 3PM, reb%, ast%, to%, fls/g). From there, I apply there resulting rank to the average wins for the person who finishes in that spot over the number of seasons that I track.

The last thing I do then is tweak them based on how I feel about the coaches and if they are outside of some reasonable minutes or usage tolerance when I do the over/unders and other things I write up..

It isn't perfect, especially the qualitative adjustments I make at the end which I should probably get rid of. But the raw ranking output from last season was really spot on in terms of what order people finished in last season. (I deleted the info to fill in this season's but I think it got the top five and bottom three correct in order iirc) I think the flaw in this design though is when people operate on the fringes and go to the extreme in a particular area (example being your current team in rebounding for this season). I don't really know how I might account for that sort of behavior in any sort of quantitative forecasting.

Mine is all by feel. I used to do some more quantitative stuff, but I just don't have time. I go division by division and put each team in the following categories: title contender, comfortable playoff team, maybe playoff team, probably not a playoff team, and yikes. Then I try to figure out how each division will do based on how strong I think it is based on other divisions. This season I have the Atlantic as the worst team at -8. So now I calculate the Atlantic wins by how I ranked each team and assign a win total to each team that add up to -8. Then I go to the over/under and use the projected win to make my bets. If it is way over or under I will put a lock on it. Nothing super scientific, but I trust my feel pretty well.


When evaluating a team, I first look at totals just to make sure everything looks right. Then I go to add info to make sure to make sure there aren't any glaring mistakes. Then, if everything looks alright I will go advanced which is where I really get into comparing teams.

Posted by benhoidal on 10/2/2019 12:48:00 PM (view original):
Mine is all by feel. I used to do some more quantitative stuff, but I just don't have time. I go division by division and put each team in the following categories: title contender, comfortable playoff team, maybe playoff team, probably not a playoff team, and yikes. Then I try to figure out how each division will do based on how strong I think it is based on other divisions. This season I have the Atlantic as the worst team at -8. So now I calculate the Atlantic wins by how I ranked each team and assign a win total to each team that add up to -8. Then I go to the over/under and use the projected win to make my bets. If it is way over or under I will put a lock on it. Nothing super scientific, but I trust my feel pretty well.


When evaluating a team, I first look at totals just to make sure everything looks right. Then I go to add info to make sure to make sure there aren't any glaring mistakes. Then, if everything looks alright I will go advanced which is where I really get into comparing teams.

Cool, thanks for sharing. I also have the Atlantic as by far the worst (just using average rank of teams by division), followed by the Central. Then the Pacific and Midwest really close to one another.

Alright, I am just going to do the rest of these:

Central:
tarheel1991: probable bye, comfortable playoff team
jcred5: competing for bye, probable playoff team
pharrop: competing for bye, probable playoff team
copernicus: competing for bye, probable playoff team
ysw128: possible playoff team, I have you out
HDS1: lottery team

playoff teams:
tarheel1991 (2)
jcred5 (4)
pharrop (5)
copernicus (5)

non-playoff teams:
ysw128 (10)
HDS1 (11)

Midwest:
tau1624: probable bye, sure thing for playoffs
dh555: Probable playoff team
Midge: Competing for playoffs, I have you just in
gerryred: competing for playoffs, I have you just outside
jackedjamie: competing for playoffs, I have you just outside
redbooda: lottery team

playoff teams:
tau1624 (1)
dh555 (4)
Midge (6)

non-playoff teams:
gerryred (7)
jackedjamie (9)
isacqbs58 (12)

Pacific:
robusk: competing for bye, comfortable playoff team
bds9992: competing for bye, comfortable playoff team
dBKC: competing for bye, probable playoff team
cjok1051: competing for playoffs, I have you just outside
ronsouth1: competing for playoffs, probable lottery team
NotoriousJ: competing for playoffs, probable lottery team

playoff teams:
robusk (2)
bds9992 (3)
dBKC (5)

non-playoff teams:
cjok1051 (7)
ronsouth1 (10)
NotoriousJ (10)

Some of the above predictions already look wrong after 3 games, but this is what I had pre-season and I won't change it based on a three game sample.

Here are my playoff picks:


1st round
mptrey (3) over copernicus (6) in 6 games
jcred5 (4) over pharrop (5) in 7 games
bds9992 (3) over Midge (6) in 5 games
dBKC (5) over dh555 (4) in 7 games

2nd round
benhoidal (1) over jcred5 (4) in 6 games
tarheel1991 (2) over mptrey (3) in 7 games
tau1624 (1) over dBKC (5) in 5 games
robusk (2) over bds9992 (3) in 7 games

Semi-Finals
tarheel1991 (2) over benhoidal (1) in 7 games
tau1624 (1) over robusk (2) in 7 games

Finals
tau1624 (1) over tarheel1991 (2) in 6 games



Playoff storylines:
tau1624 gets his first ODL championship (about time tau!)
tarheel1991 upsets benhoidal in the semi-finals game 7 for second season in a row
robusk and bds9992 battle it out in an epic game 7 showdown that we have all been waiting for!

Teams exceeding my expectations after three games:
copernicus
gerryred
NotoriousJ

Teams meeting my high expectations after three games:
benhoidal
bds9992

Teams meeting my low expectations after three games:
isacqbs58

Teams not living up to expectations after 3 games:
tau1624
tarheel1991
mptrey

Posted by benhoidal on 10/3/2019 10:57:00 AM (view original):
Teams exceeding my expectations after three games:
copernicus
gerryred
NotoriousJ

Teams meeting my high expectations after three games:
benhoidal
bds9992

Teams meeting my low expectations after three games:
isacqbs58

Teams not living up to expectations after 3 games:
tau1624
tarheel1991
mptrey

Home/road splits are always drastic enough in the ODL that it is hard to make any distinctions until that balances out. Probably not telling you anything new but just wanted to mention it.

Posted by benhoidal on 10/3/2019 10:58:00 AM (view original):
Some of the above predictions already look wrong after 3 games, but this is what I had pre-season and I won't change it based on a three game sample.

Here are my playoff picks:


1st round
mptrey (3) over copernicus (6) in 6 games
jcred5 (4) over pharrop (5) in 7 games
bds9992 (3) over Midge (6) in 5 games
dBKC (5) over dh555 (4) in 7 games

2nd round
benhoidal (1) over jcred5 (4) in 6 games
tarheel1991 (2) over mptrey (3) in 7 games
tau1624 (1) over dBKC (5) in 5 games
robusk (2) over bds9992 (3) in 7 games

Semi-Finals
tarheel1991 (2) over benhoidal (1) in 7 games
tau1624 (1) over robusk (2) in 7 games

Finals
tau1624 (1) over tarheel1991 (2) in 6 games



Playoff storylines:
tau1624 gets his first ODL championship (about time tau!)
tarheel1991 upsets benhoidal in the semi-finals game 7 for second season in a row
robusk and bds9992 battle it out in an epic game 7 showdown that we have all been waiting for!

I can't believe tau hasn't won a championship in the ODL. Crazy.

I agree on most of these picks. I am a little higher on pharrop than you. I, as usual, think MIdge was too aggressive on his minute shortening but he somehow always pulls it off. This is probably the best team I have seen bds put together. I screwed up on my two sixth round picks and the division draft so I am in trouble.

I like summer break ben. We always get more content then. Although, you probably draft better teams then too.

Posted by robusk on 10/3/2019 12:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by benhoidal on 10/3/2019 10:58:00 AM (view original):
Some of the above predictions already look wrong after 3 games, but this is what I had pre-season and I won't change it based on a three game sample.

Here are my playoff picks:


1st round
mptrey (3) over copernicus (6) in 6 games
jcred5 (4) over pharrop (5) in 7 games
bds9992 (3) over Midge (6) in 5 games
dBKC (5) over dh555 (4) in 7 games

2nd round
benhoidal (1) over jcred5 (4) in 6 games
tarheel1991 (2) over mptrey (3) in 7 games
tau1624 (1) over dBKC (5) in 5 games
robusk (2) over bds9992 (3) in 7 games

Semi-Finals
tarheel1991 (2) over benhoidal (1) in 7 games
tau1624 (1) over robusk (2) in 7 games

Finals
tau1624 (1) over tarheel1991 (2) in 6 games



Playoff storylines:
tau1624 gets his first ODL championship (about time tau!)
tarheel1991 upsets benhoidal in the semi-finals game 7 for second season in a row
robusk and bds9992 battle it out in an epic game 7 showdown that we have all been waiting for!

I can't believe tau hasn't won a championship in the ODL. Crazy.

I agree on most of these picks. I am a little higher on pharrop than you. I, as usual, think MIdge was too aggressive on his minute shortening but he somehow always pulls it off. This is probably the best team I have seen bds put together. I screwed up on my two sixth round picks and the division draft so I am in trouble.

I love pharrop's starting lineup! His whole drafted team (with one minor exception) is really, really good in my opinion. Wasn't crazy about how he filled out the roster and might have nitpicked too hard. I have him at 45 wins.

Midge always has this many minutes and always wins just as much as he loses. I have him at 42 wins, just because I am tired of downgrading him after looking at those minutes and having him do okay anyways.

I love bds's team. It is my third ranked team overall and not too far off the best. He has to prove it to me first before I get too crazy with predictions.

Posted by benhoidal on 10/3/2019 10:58:00 AM (view original):
Some of the above predictions already look wrong after 3 games, but this is what I had pre-season and I won't change it based on a three game sample.

Here are my playoff picks:


1st round
mptrey (3) over copernicus (6) in 6 games
jcred5 (4) over pharrop (5) in 7 games
bds9992 (3) over Midge (6) in 5 games
dBKC (5) over dh555 (4) in 7 games

2nd round
benhoidal (1) over jcred5 (4) in 6 games
tarheel1991 (2) over mptrey (3) in 7 games
tau1624 (1) over dBKC (5) in 5 games
robusk (2) over bds9992 (3) in 7 games

Semi-Finals
tarheel1991 (2) over benhoidal (1) in 7 games
tau1624 (1) over robusk (2) in 7 games

Finals
tau1624 (1) over tarheel1991 (2) in 6 games



Playoff storylines:
tau1624 gets his first ODL championship (about time tau!)
tarheel1991 upsets benhoidal in the semi-finals game 7 for second season in a row
robusk and bds9992 battle it out in an epic game 7 showdown that we have all been waiting for!

11/12 is better than I have ever done. Nice job on this.

Team	Py Wins	Dreb%	Oreb%	Creb%	TS%	Opp TS%	eFG	Opp eFG	TS%Diff	Actual Wins	Actual minus Expected
The Warm Up	56.1	71.4%	25.7%	97.1%	58.6%	54.5%	55.3%	51.2%	4.1%	54	-2.1
Freaky Cousins	52.7	68.3%	22.1%	90.4%	58.4%	55.3%	55.8%	51.8%	3.1%	46	-6.7
The City of Beverley Love	51.8	71.7%	24.8%	96.5%	56.8%	54.8%	54.0%	51.5%	2.0%	49	-2.8
Lil Brow Wow	51.2	69.6%	25.6%	95.2%	56.5%	55.1%	52.8%	52.3%	1.5%	50	-1.2
World B Free	50.3	69.9%	26.2%	96.1%	55.9%	54.4%	53.4%	50.7%	1.6%	51	0.7
Chairman of the Beards	50.2	75.1%	26.1%	101.2%	55.9%	55.2%	52.2%	52.3%	0.6%	49	-1.2
Will & Bled's Bogut Journey	48.0	69.3%	25.1%	94.4%	56.8%	55.2%	54.0%	51.9%	1.6%	48	0.0
Spacely Sprockets	47.7	71.1%	21.6%	92.7%	56.8%	56.1%	53.7%	52.7%	0.7%	47	-0.7
B's B. 3rd times a charm?	47.3	66.6%	28.3%	94.8%	55.7%	55.6%	52.4%	52.3%	0.1%	44	-3.3
No Favor Shown	47.2	68.2%	23.4%	91.5%	59.0%	56.3%	56.8%	53.5%	2.7%	43	-4.2
Beal With It	46.8	68.1%	25.4%	93.5%	58.2%	56.6%	55.3%	53.4%	1.7%	46	-0.8
Big Ben and the Birds	46.1	67.3%	20.7%	88.1%	54.7%	53.9%	51.5%	50.5%	0.7%	48	1.9
Too Much Sabonis	40.5	69.9%	25.6%	95.6%	57.4%	57.5%	53.9%	54.8%	-0.1%	41	0.5
Hit a 3 Ben!	40.5	70.5%	26.4%	96.9%	57.1%	56.5%	54.5%	53.1%	0.6%	42	1.5
GOAT farm	40.2	67.2%	22.5%	89.7%	55.3%	56.1%	52.1%	53.2%	-0.8%	42	1.8
clap them cheeks	40.1	68.5%	27.1%	95.6%	57.5%	56.5%	54.5%	53.1%	1.0%	39	-1.1
Harlem Globetrotters	39.6	70.0%	26.1%	96.1%	57.3%	57.9%	54.6%	55.0%	-0.6%	43	3.4
Naters Gonna Nate	34.4	69.0%	22.9%	91.9%	56.0%	57.2%	52.4%	53.9%	-1.1%	38	3.6
let the threes fly mo will reb	34.0	66.7%	25.8%	92.5%	54.5%	56.8%	50.4%	53.3%	-2.3%	36	2.0
Boot Scoot Boogie	32.4	67.0%	21.9%	88.9%	55.6%	56.1%	52.4%	52.9%	-0.5%	33	0.6
Cilfford the big red dog	28.7	67.2%	23.1%	90.3%	54.5%	56.6%	51.6%	53.3%	-2.1%	25	-3.7
WOW	24.9	65.5%	23.0%	88.5%	55.6%	59.8%	51.9%	57.3%	-4.3%	20	-4.9
Red & Sylver	24.8	71.6%	27.9%	99.5%	50.4%	56.8%	46.1%	53.6%	-6.4%	35	10.2
Medina Mudslide	13.1	66.7%	22.8%	89.5%	54.1%	58.3%	51.0%	55.4%	-4.3%	15	1.9