Posted by JLKennedy44 on 11/23/2019 5:00:00 PM (view original):
Gill, thank you very much for the great answer. Let me throw one more item at you. When does an ability become a negative factor? For example, a PF with an 80 LP and a 19 ATH could indicate that this player is not really that good of a post player. But how bad of a player? And what is the tipping point where ATH rating takes away from a player's LP quality.

To put it another way:

The ATH Coefficient for LP could vary:
0-20 ATH = coefficient = .7
21-40 ATH - coefficient = .8
41-60 ATH - coefficient = .9
61-80 ATH - coefficient = 1.0
81-100 ATH - coefficient = 1.2

The reason I originally asked this question was that I want to start looking at recruiting differently and be more judicious when targeting players. So could the above table work?

to be honest, i am struggling a bit with how to respond to this. we are not quite on the same page about something but its hard to put my finger on what.

if we were to simplify the scoring for a big, into ath and lp, we might say you can approximate with:
0.3 * ath + 1 * lp

with 20 ath and 80 lp, this would be 6+80=86
with 80 ath and 80 lp, this would be 24+80=104
with 80 ath and 20 lp, this would be 24+20=44

this is the 'simple model' for rating evaluation we tend to use on these forums - a model where each ability is a sum of components, where each component is the value of a rating times a coefficient - that way its easier to talk about. its not a perfect model, but its not atrocious, either. that way we can compare the value of ratings for a certain purpose in simple terms. for a certain set of circumstances, is lp twice as important as ath for scoring, 3x, 4x, 5x? those would correspond to coefficients for (lp, ath) of (1, .5), (1, .33), (1, .25), (1, .2), respectively.

does that make sense? it seems to me that is the model most folks have in mind, in responding to you - i spent a lot of time talking about why that isn't perfect, because the situations vary so much - but in the end, am happy to use that model for talking about the value of ratings in a specific context, because its about the best we've come up with as a community over the past 15 years :)

i think in your model, you are looking at taking LP as the base, and increasing or dropping it based on ath. this is not necessarily a bad way to look at things, but it basically breaks down as soon as you consider a 3rd rating - like per (which is probably at least as valuable as ath for the scoring big types you are after - and many abilities really require you to at least consider 3 ratings, so this is important in general). also, it treats ath as equal across pretty broad ranges. so, if you are going to use a simple model like this, i would definitely use the (just as simple) model with a sum of parts (coefficient1 * ath + coefficient2 * lp type of thing). with that model, you can really easily set up an excel sheet or even just do it by hand with the calculator on your computer or something. in excel you can set the coefficients in a cell and reference them so you can change the formula on the fly and see how it impacts the rankings - which is a pretty valuable exercise and a great way to calibrate your formula to your eye test!

anyway, back to your actual question. its a bit of a trick question, to be honest. where does ath take away from lp - i suppose, any time it is below average for the level of play you are playing at in your division - so whats that, like 55-60? i would definitely think the 19ath in your example would take away heavily from your player, but if their LP is high enough, and particularly if you aren't facing very good defense, the guy might still be useful for you. i guess that doesn't really answer your question - here's what i would do -

pick a set of ratings that seem 'solid' to you, and coefficients that seem reasonable. let's suppose this is 60 ath, 70 lp, and ath being worth 30% as much as lp. then you need .3 * 60 + 1 * 70 = 88. then you can do the same calculation on the projected ratings for recruits you are considering, and basically evaluate if they are better or worse than that. you can do the same thing for scorers you consider like, borderline usable, great, exceptional - and do the same thing.

1) How many pages were your wedding vows?
2) Did you conceive before they were through?

Thanks again Gill, I think your approach makes more sense in keeping LP (or PER or PASS or BH) as the base and modifying from there. And it would be easier to create a formula and just track against actual results.

Posted by mullycj on 11/24/2019 5:23:00 PM (view original):
1) How many pages were your wedding vows?
2) Did you conceive before they were through?

the entire ceremony was 10 minutes, and that includes people walking down the aisle and everything. once the pastor started talking, it was 5 minutes, maybe even less.

funny story, we were at a bar at the reception hall drinking while we waited to get called over to stand for the reception bit. the rest of the party had to go do their thing, but for whatever reason, 3 of us had no responsibilities in terms of walking grandmothers or bridesmaids down the aisle (there were more bridesmades so i'm not sure how that happened).

so, we are sitting there having a grand old time, and about 10m goes by since everyone else departed. one of us is like, i wonder if its time, doesn't it feel like it should be time? and its like nah, that woman from the reception hall seems to know her ****, she said she'd be back for us. so we went back to it.

like 5 minutes later, some music starts playing, and it was like... wtf is going on? one groomsmen was like, do you think they would start without us? i was like well, they MIGHT start without you - but they *definitely* wouldn't start without me. so i'm pretty sure we are good. so we went back to it.

a few minutes later another song comes on and its like, ok, this is clearly walking down the aisle music. we better at least go peek. so we did. and it was like.... oh, ****, most of the wedding party is already up there. one of the groomsmen started freaking out a bit and i was like dude its fine, let's just walk out there confidently like this is the exact moment we are supposed to be, and everything will be fine. so we walk out there and it was really good timing, because right as we get there, the last couple starts coming down and almost immediately, i see my wife step around the corner, about to be walked down by her dad + stepdad.

15 seconds... that's how much time elapsed between when i was standing there and when my wife would have looked up and seen me not there. now, knowing my wife, she wouldn't have been one to be like, omg, he changed his mind, and to break down on the spot. however, i wasn't too keen on testing that theory.

So, you are saying you thought you were running flex at the ceremony, but it turned out to be more a motion scheme?

Gil nearly got burned, underestimating the intoxication coefficient and how it affects the wife’s trust rating. Good thing the organization IQ was high, limiting the volatility.