Athleticism multiplier effect Topic

I look at the ATH rating as a multiplier effect on other attributes. Could that multiplier be quantified somehow? For example, If I had a LP rating of 80 and a ATH of 80 - would that make the actual LP attribute closer to 96 if I used a 1.2x for an 80 ATH. What would a good multiplier estimate be for ATH ranges?.
11/16/2019 6:13 PM
I understand what you're getting at, but ATH doesn't make the LP better. The LP just is what it is. The ATH helps you score along with that LP. It's just the combination of many ratings that matters. Not just those two. BH is included. ST is included. Etc
11/16/2019 8:54 PM
1.2 is probably pretty close, but rs probably between 1.2 and. 1.3
11/17/2019 6:54 AM
way off...
1.2435762525
11/17/2019 8:44 PM
Don't have any numbers but I was originally told ATH affects LP, DEF, SB, REB, and SPD affects DEF, PER, BH, PASS.
11/20/2019 10:33 AM
Posted by rsvphr on 11/20/2019 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Don't have any numbers but I was originally told ATH affects LP, DEF, SB, REB, and SPD affects DEF, PER, BH, PASS.
i would definitely recommend not thinking about things this way - at least not past the early phases of coaching.

ath and speed are not multipliers to ratings, as whoever posted earlier said. when the sim engine runs, ratings are smashed together into aggregates, which are then used to make comparisons - very rarely would you see things like, a single rating from 1 player being compared to a single rating of another. i call these aggregates 'abilities'. this both simplifies things, and brings the way we talk and think about the game, more in line with how it actually works.

for example, 3 point shooting ability is what the engine would use when a player takes a 3. this is comprised primarily of per, bh, and speed, with IQ and fatigue level in basically every aggregate (so i won't mention them every time, but know they are omni-present).

defense is not defense. the defense rating means nothing in a vacuum. i do talk about a 'defensive ability', but i use that as shorthand - what i really mean, is the interior defensive ability, for post players, and the per defense ability, for guards (with a mix of both for SFs, if you will). this allows one to talk about a defensive ability for a player, without getting overly wordy. this 'defensive ability' would primary run off of def, ath, spd for guards, and def, ath, and blk for bigs.

still, the above is a simplification. particularly in press, where turnover generation is a vital part of defense - this is primarily run off of spd, then def, then ath.

anyway, even though abilities are a simplification, and deeper dives are necessary, at least it brings you to a point where you are thinking about something that at least somehow relates to what actually makes a player good. i often suggest to people i help, to think of 4 abilities per player - offense, defense, rebounding, and guard skills - with 3 cores for guards (minus rebounding), and 3 cores for bigs (minus guard skills). to built elite teams, every player needs 2 clear strengths, of the 3. this is sufficient, in general, to win championships. however, if all that offense is, for example, 2 point scoring, that is still not going to be enough. but in general, my 'two strengths' model holds up extremely well - there is no possible way to construct a rule around ratings, that is nearly as concise, or nearly as accurate.

on the other hand, when i talk to someone, and its like - why do you or do you not like that player? they'll say something like, well he isn't that fast. so what?? what do you need him to do, and how does that speed impact what he does? is it that you need him to be a good defender? if so, you really need to consider the ath and def in conjunction with that speed - just because your high d1 guard caps at 70 speed, that doesn't mean he can't still be a great per defender, with his 95 ath/def.

i may not be explaining this very well, but in short - ratings mean nothing by themselves. there is almost no rating you can consider in a vacuum, the closest thing is probably rebounding in bigs, or passing in a pg. but still, its much better to try to understand the actual abilities in play. for a point guard, for example, the 'guard skills' abilities take two forms - getting team mates better open looks, and avoiding turnovers. getting team mates open looks purely runs off of passing and iq (of course, also fatigue level), while avoiding turnovers is primarily bh and pass (possibly small impact from ath/spd, probably, and of course iq and fatigue - i only mention explicitly iq in the getting team mates open looks part, because its such an important ability, and because iq plays a bigger role in that ability than almost any other ability). note that ball handling also plays a role in a guard's scoring ability.

if you understand the reasons that ratings actual matter, which comes down to, by definition, understanding the abilities, the aggregates actually used by the sim engine - you will get way further than if you just think about ratings as a silo. they aren't silos, and even great coaches make mistakes constantly getting hung up on a rating. you can't even talk about the importance of a rating as a silo, it totally depends on the role of the player, is he a defense-guard skills oriented pg in a press defense? is he a scoring type pg in a man defense? the implications can be pretty huge.

in short, even though a rating sounds simpler, so much context is needed to appropriately place that rating, that they become almost meaningless. meanwhile, the abilities can have a much broader appeal. if we talk about what makes a big man a good rebounder, some folks might need rebounding from a particular big more than others, but the concept of what actually makes a big a good rebounder, that is fairly universal. the concept of what makes a guard a good 3 point scorer is fairly universal. your situation changes, but i don't need to know that context to talk about whether a player is good at a certain function or not. contrast this to a rating, where it is impossible for me to talk about the value of the rating without knowing your situation, in a brief manner - i'd have to talk about the value of that rating in all functions where it applies, it just gets so messy. instead, we just over-simplify which leads to poor coaching decisions.

abilities are the answer!
11/20/2019 11:35 PM
multiplier

seems unlikely
11/20/2019 11:41 PM
Posted by JLKennedy44 on 11/16/2019 6:13:00 PM (view original):
I look at the ATH rating as a multiplier effect on other attributes. Could that multiplier be quantified somehow? For example, If I had a LP rating of 80 and a ATH of 80 - would that make the actual LP attribute closer to 96 if I used a 1.2x for an 80 ATH. What would a good multiplier estimate be for ATH ranges?.
to specifically address this question in the context of my post above:

post shooting ability for post players (it works slightly differently for the 1-3 positions than 4-5, and really even the 3 is slightly different than the 1-2), is an ability that functions primarily off lp, but includes as major components per, ath, iq, and fatigue level. note that post scorer offensive efficiency depends on more than just the shooting ability - before you shoot, you have to 1) not foul and 2) not turnover the ball. so if you are talking overall post scoring efficiency (at the 4/5 position), let's call it 'post scoring ability', any of the components of the 'avoiding fouls', 'avoiding turnovers', and 'post shooting' abilities are technically contributors. also note that the 'post shooting ability' relies not only on the player in question, but the 'create open looks' ability of every team mate (which runs off of their pass and iq).

as you can see, this all gets fairly complicated if you want to take it all the way (the above may not even get there, that is what i can just rattle off in a couple minutes at midnight while trying to avoid actually coaching).

however, because there are so many factors, it is quite frequently appropriate to simplify to core and maybe secondary ratings. but, instead of trying to simplify post shooting ability - which only captures part of the picture - its best to start with the broader concept - post scoring ability - and simplify that.

so, in the concept of post scoring ability - which includes all aspects of efficiency - and excluding the impact of team mates passing/iq, which is not particularly relevant to player evaluation - i would describe the post scoring ability roughly as such (quick side note - i just realize i totally left out FT shooting - i'm not going to go back and amend, but i'll include it below).

rating | coefficient (value)
lp | 1
ath | .3-.5
per | .3-.5
ft (per partial grade) | about 3-4
spd | 0.3-0.8
bh/pass | 0.2-0.4

iq and stamina are both pretty important, iq most of the time, stamina is super situational. its too hard to try to quantify in a general context.

note, you would apply the above by basically coming up with an aggregate scoring ability for your big, by taking a formula like
1*lp + .4*ath + .4*per + ...

this would give you a score, that would loosely tell you who is better. is this perfect? of course not. first off, the game is more complicated, and the interactions between ratings often feel more like multiplication than addition, so the simple model of variable * coefficient is not really adequate. its sometimes fairly decent though.

the other thing is how situational this all is. if you are facing a press, bh/pass matter about 50% more than if you are facing man or zone. if you are facing crap competition, the value of lp is a lot higher relative to ath, than it is against top tier competition (against top competition, ath is extremely important for offense, but against garbage competition, lp mostly carries the day). per is helpful generally but becomes somewhat essential only where there is some parity between offense and defensive skills - meaning its less important in d3, and more important in high d2 and up. then you have stuff like, in FB, the value of ath is drastically higher and the value of LP is drastically lower, to the point that they are probably close to a wash, just in the offensive arena. meanwhile in d3 running triangle, lp might be 4X as valuable as ath, in the offensive arena. if true, right there you have a fluctuation of 4x, between the 'multiplier effect' of ath on lp, if you want to characterize it like that, between two reasonable, not contrived scenarios (d3 being closer to 4:1, and d1 fastbreak being closer to 1:1 - for certain d1 fb bigs, ath is significantly more valuable on a marginal basis, just for offense, than low post, so there are times they even invert where ath is big brother and lp is little brother).

as a quick digression, the above is a perfect example of why there are often times substantial disagreements between coaches but neither is right or wrong. the circumstances in this game vary the answer to many questions considerably, which is a big part of why this game is is deep enough, and engaging enough, to maintain the interest of folks for so many years. anyway, this is why i frequently explicitly characterize the circumstances about which i am talking. the values i threw out above, they are generally assuming average NT tournament caliber play, with a fairly standard non-fastbreak offense.

TL;DR - 1.35x
11/21/2019 12:14 AM
TL;DR - 1.35x

(figured i'd post it separately for visibility)
11/21/2019 12:16 AM
Posted by mullycj on 11/17/2019 8:44:00 PM (view original):
way off...
1.2435762525
Mully has provided a useful decimal approximation, but to gameplan properly you actually need to raise pi to the power of 4/21.
11/21/2019 12:30 PM
Posted by gillispie1 on 11/20/2019 11:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by rsvphr on 11/20/2019 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Don't have any numbers but I was originally told ATH affects LP, DEF, SB, REB, and SPD affects DEF, PER, BH, PASS.
i would definitely recommend not thinking about things this way - at least not past the early phases of coaching.

ath and speed are not multipliers to ratings, as whoever posted earlier said. when the sim engine runs, ratings are smashed together into aggregates, which are then used to make comparisons - very rarely would you see things like, a single rating from 1 player being compared to a single rating of another. i call these aggregates 'abilities'. this both simplifies things, and brings the way we talk and think about the game, more in line with how it actually works.

for example, 3 point shooting ability is what the engine would use when a player takes a 3. this is comprised primarily of per, bh, and speed, with IQ and fatigue level in basically every aggregate (so i won't mention them every time, but know they are omni-present).

defense is not defense. the defense rating means nothing in a vacuum. i do talk about a 'defensive ability', but i use that as shorthand - what i really mean, is the interior defensive ability, for post players, and the per defense ability, for guards (with a mix of both for SFs, if you will). this allows one to talk about a defensive ability for a player, without getting overly wordy. this 'defensive ability' would primary run off of def, ath, spd for guards, and def, ath, and blk for bigs.

still, the above is a simplification. particularly in press, where turnover generation is a vital part of defense - this is primarily run off of spd, then def, then ath.

anyway, even though abilities are a simplification, and deeper dives are necessary, at least it brings you to a point where you are thinking about something that at least somehow relates to what actually makes a player good. i often suggest to people i help, to think of 4 abilities per player - offense, defense, rebounding, and guard skills - with 3 cores for guards (minus rebounding), and 3 cores for bigs (minus guard skills). to built elite teams, every player needs 2 clear strengths, of the 3. this is sufficient, in general, to win championships. however, if all that offense is, for example, 2 point scoring, that is still not going to be enough. but in general, my 'two strengths' model holds up extremely well - there is no possible way to construct a rule around ratings, that is nearly as concise, or nearly as accurate.

on the other hand, when i talk to someone, and its like - why do you or do you not like that player? they'll say something like, well he isn't that fast. so what?? what do you need him to do, and how does that speed impact what he does? is it that you need him to be a good defender? if so, you really need to consider the ath and def in conjunction with that speed - just because your high d1 guard caps at 70 speed, that doesn't mean he can't still be a great per defender, with his 95 ath/def.

i may not be explaining this very well, but in short - ratings mean nothing by themselves. there is almost no rating you can consider in a vacuum, the closest thing is probably rebounding in bigs, or passing in a pg. but still, its much better to try to understand the actual abilities in play. for a point guard, for example, the 'guard skills' abilities take two forms - getting team mates better open looks, and avoiding turnovers. getting team mates open looks purely runs off of passing and iq (of course, also fatigue level), while avoiding turnovers is primarily bh and pass (possibly small impact from ath/spd, probably, and of course iq and fatigue - i only mention explicitly iq in the getting team mates open looks part, because its such an important ability, and because iq plays a bigger role in that ability than almost any other ability). note that ball handling also plays a role in a guard's scoring ability.

if you understand the reasons that ratings actual matter, which comes down to, by definition, understanding the abilities, the aggregates actually used by the sim engine - you will get way further than if you just think about ratings as a silo. they aren't silos, and even great coaches make mistakes constantly getting hung up on a rating. you can't even talk about the importance of a rating as a silo, it totally depends on the role of the player, is he a defense-guard skills oriented pg in a press defense? is he a scoring type pg in a man defense? the implications can be pretty huge.

in short, even though a rating sounds simpler, so much context is needed to appropriately place that rating, that they become almost meaningless. meanwhile, the abilities can have a much broader appeal. if we talk about what makes a big man a good rebounder, some folks might need rebounding from a particular big more than others, but the concept of what actually makes a big a good rebounder, that is fairly universal. the concept of what makes a guard a good 3 point scorer is fairly universal. your situation changes, but i don't need to know that context to talk about whether a player is good at a certain function or not. contrast this to a rating, where it is impossible for me to talk about the value of the rating without knowing your situation, in a brief manner - i'd have to talk about the value of that rating in all functions where it applies, it just gets so messy. instead, we just over-simplify which leads to poor coaching decisions.

abilities are the answer!
Awesome post. I will argue that sometimes 2 bad ratings can really hurt a player at high, high DI and cause them to severely underperform: a combination of sub 65 speed and not enough reb/sb to play the 4. E.g. this guy has been terrible and this guy was only decent for me. Some guys obviously are still truly great players, like this guy, because they have (a) decent speed and (b) truly elite ath/de/lp/per/bh/pa, but let's not kid ourselves, with even 80 speed Benfer would be exponentially better and Sieradski would have been unstoppable.
6.4.1
11/21/2019 8:00 PM
I think it’s the ball handling, moreso than speed, that hinders a guy like Sieradski in motion. Just my eyeball speculation though. Give him Benfer’s BH, and he’s scoring 15+ efficient p/g as a #1 distribution option for me.
11/21/2019 8:54 PM
cubcub - are those all your players, or just random examples? also, what position were they used at when they were terrible, decent, and great respectively?
11/21/2019 10:05 PM
Gill, thank you very much for the great answer. Let me throw one more item at you. When does an ability become a negative factor? For example, a PF with an 80 LP and a 19 ATH could indicate that this player is not really that good of a post player. But how bad of a player? And what is the tipping point where ATH rating takes away from a player's LP quality.

To put it another way:

The ATH Coefficient for LP could vary:
0-20 ATH = coefficient = .7
21-40 ATH - coefficient = .8
41-60 ATH - coefficient = .9
61-80 ATH - coefficient = 1.0
81-100 ATH - coefficient = 1.2

The reason I originally asked this question was that I want to start looking at recruiting differently and be more judicious when targeting players. So could the above table work?
11/23/2019 5:00 PM
great posts by gill - as so often

the complexity of these interactions supports my lazy approach to recruiting. I have never tried to develop an xls to do it. I think I can look at a player and say - what can this guy do for my team - what abilities does he have - better than any xls that I can design (keep in mind, I am not great at doing that)

I think folks who are good at that could develop templates that would help

1. filter some guys - flag guys worth looking at
2. give insights into some guys with odd combos of ratings one might miss

I just try to do the same with eyeballs.
11/24/2019 7:41 AM
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