Testing WhatIfSports League (TWISL)

Section 1: LEAGUE PHILOSOPHY

The TWISL is a multi-season league in which each season is designed to help us better understand the SLB algorithm. Each season will be completely new and different, and owners may come and go as they choose depending on their interest level in each season’s theme. There is no expectation that owners commit to multiple seasons.

However, it is important to know that this league is designed first and foremost to create better understanding of how SLB really works. This means that each season will involve various roster constraints, or theme rules, and that occasionally these may result in one or more teams being at a disadvantage compared to others. While I will do my best to construct rules that will allow each team to be as competitive as possible within the construct of each season, that will be a secondary consideration. If you signup to participate in any season of this league, please do so with the understanding that the playing field may not be level.

Section 2: LEAGUE STRUCTURE AND WIS RULES


TWISL is intended to be a 24-team league each season. If we do not have sufficient owners to reach 24 teams within a reasonable amount of time after the first theme posting (typically 7-10 days) then we will use a smaller league (16 or 20 teams, depending on how many owners signup). This will not be put to a vote. Please only signup if you are willing to play in any format (16, 20, 24 teams).

While the exact WIS rules for each season may vary, in general each season will have an 80M cap, no DH, no AAA, no WW, no trading, with injuries ON. Clones may or may not be allowed depending on the specific theme idea we are playing each season.

Section 3: THEME IDEAS

TWISL will last as long as there are interesting questions about SLB for us to test in a workable theme that will attract owners. Some ideas for specific themes will be:

• What is the effect of pitcher K rate on range (plus plays)?
• How much does fatigue impact hitter performance?
• How much does fatigue impact pitcher performance?
• What do park factors really mean? How much additional offense is generated by a park that is +1 or +2 for 1B/2B/3B/HR compared to a neutral or negative park?
• How do the park factors work in combination? Will more triples be hit in a park that is +1 or hits and +1 for triples, or in a park that is -3 for hits and +3 for triples?
• How important are manager settings? If you set all of your base stealers to 4 or 5, how many more SB attempts will they have compared to setting them to 1, 2, or 3?
• What impact do the H&R and baserunning aggressive settings have?
• How do the LH and RH specialist relief settings work? What is the impact of setting all your short relievers to LHS/RHS rather than (say) Setup A/B?
• What is the impact of range on double plays?
• There are no doubt many more, and owners are encouraged to suggest their own ideas for us to test. The only condition is that it has to be something around which we can design a workable set of league rules.

Note that to make the tests as reliable as possible, for most of the above we will need to put significant restrictions on roster composition. For example, if we are testing the effect of baserunning aggressiveness, we will likely want each team to have exactly the same set of offensive players (or at least the same starting lineup). Otherwise there are significant confounding variables that will dilute our ability to understand the specific effect we are looking for.

In the first season of TWISL, we will test the impact of pitcher strikeout rate on range. For more details on the issue, please see this thread, in particular the discussion on pages 8-9.

This will be an 80M league with no AAA, no WW, no trades, injuries ON. Clones will be allowed.

All teams will use What If Sports Park.

There are significant roster restrictions as follows:

1. All teams must roster the following 7 players:

1B: 1910 Dode Paskert
2B: 1893 Bid McPhee
3B: 1897 Bill Joyce
SS: 1918 Dave Bancroft
OF: 1921 Max Carey, 1975 Bill North, 1926 Taylor Douthit

The intention is that these players will be your primary starter at the positions listed above. Please do not intentionally play any of these players at a secondary position. And please do not draft any other player with the intention of using him at one of these 7 spots.

Each player is on the high end of A+++ range for their position, with a total salary that should be workable at 80M. They are not a great offensive bunch, but 6 of the 7 have an OBP of .370 or higher. There is not a lot of HR power, which is intentional.

1. You may choose any player you want as your starting catcher, as well as any players to fill out your bench. But your total offensive salary must not exceed $40M. So you have just under $5M for your catcher and bench players.
2. You must spend at least $40M on your pitching staff, and you must roster at least 1300 innings. All pitchers must be from the years 1920-2019. No deadball pitchers!
3. When you sign up, you must choose one of the following (there will be 12 of each in this league):
   1. ?Every pitcher on your team must have a K/9 of 8 or greater
   2. OR every pitcher on your team must have a K/9 of 4 or less

Note that K/9 means K/9, not K/9#. There are plenty of pitchers in both groups to allow everyone to roster a competitive pitching staff at the 80M cap level.

Each division will have 2 of each kind of team. Owners are welcome to signup for 2 teams (1 of each); they will be placed in divisions in opposite leagues.

Obviously, the intent of this league is to determine if the low K teams generate significantly more plus plays than the high K teams. Accordingly, it is expected that owners will give the seven A+++ range players the majority of playing time at their 7 chosen positions. Please do not join this league if it is your intention to find ways around doing this.

1/3/20 UPDATE - Based on the level of interest, we will be making this a 16 team league. I'm going to remove my high K team.

High K/9
1 thunder1008
2 ejstockman
3 mensu1954
4 midknight
5 joerat1
6 winnetka1
7 italyprof
8 kevinjb


Low K/9
1 contrarian23
2 redcped
3 thunder1008
4 ozomatli
5 jfranco77
6 Lewb
7 redwingscup
8 dorkster


Sitemail list: contrarian23; redcped; mensu1954; thunder1008; ozomatli; ejstockman; jfranco77; midknight; Lewb; redwingscup; joerat1; dorkster; winnetka1; italyprof; kevinjb

I'll play. Low K/9 appeals to me, so I'll try that.

Side note: I'm grateful for this structure because I make a lot of educated guesses based on what I've read or tested, without a lot of useful evidence. This set of leagues offers a chance to provide useful data that everyone can use however they choose going forward, and I'm looking forward to being in the middle of it.

I'll play too...the decision on which pitching to use will come shortly. Thanks!

Love the idea and a great initiative, contrarian. I'd like to enter both a low K and high K team. Thanks.

I'll take the low K pitchers this time and will probably play every season of this league.

One question: Why do the hitters we are using for this season strike out at a below average rate? I understand why prioritizing range is more important for this test, but we'd likely get a richer data set by using guys who have A+ range AND strike out frequently (if any exist?)

In with hi k/9. Thanks!

Posted by ozomatli on 12/25/2019 10:57:00 PM (view original):
I'll take the low K pitchers this time and will probably play every season of this league.

One question: Why do the hitters we are using for this season strike out at a below average rate? I understand why prioritizing range is more important for this test, but we'd likely get a richer data set by using guys who have A+ range AND strike out frequently (if any exist?)

Mike the short answer is because I didn't think about it.

Now that I do think about it, I expect that:
(a) there are probably aren't many A+++ range guys who strike out a lot. Looking through some past threads I see Mike Cameron but most of the really high end range guys tended to be contact hitters.
(b) from a purely practical standpoint, if this question is of any interest to WIS owners then the low strikeout hitters are probably more typical of the kind of team you would see in a standard OL.

That said, I agree that it would be interesting to consider. Let's see how this season plays out and we can potentially add your suggestion to a future season of this league.

Decided to take the high "K" route...thanks!

I really like this idea and I'll definitely participate. I'll take a low K team. I usually draft very low K pitchers anyway.

I do think 1300 innings of high K pitchers, for 80m in WIS park, might be a bit high, but it's not crazy.

It might be. But I definitely do not want fatigued pitching staffs skewing the results.

I drafted 1342 innings, which is low for what I usually find comfortable, and once again someone else thinks much lower than that is still too high. Maybe I should go back and shed a few more of those innings after all ...

I'll play - I like the concept. I will play with the high K/9 pitchers.