I've been meaning to post this in here for awhile...uncleal's post that's in the pinned threads...some good info.
Due to recent events, I have come to explain in detail what range actually is and is not.
Disclaimer: I have played a lot of SIM, but I am hardly an expert in the inner workings of the SIM. I would like to start a discussion. If other experienced owners spot a mistake with what I am saying, or would like to add data, please let me know. This is taken from past discussions, the knowledge base, the event tree, and other such things. I did not look at any teams or specific players when writing this.
The first thing to understand about range is that it is two very different topics.
First: How does WIS create its range grade?
A player’s range grade (A+ to D-) is calculated using a players Relative Range Factor. This is a complex process, the exact formula not published by WIS (to my knowledge), that takes a player’s raw Range Factor and is modified to compensate “for actual team makeup and balls in play allowed” (quoted from Knowledge Base). (Players are also penalized for playing fewer than 20 games at the position.) WIS is compensating for the fact that Range Factor is not a great stat because it is heavily affected by those things. This compensation is likely imperfect, so the original Range Factor is very important. What is this Range Factor?
Range Factor = (Putouts + Assists) / Games Played at the Position (Updated)
Notice that this doesn’t say a whole lot about a player’s actual range, for three reasons:
1. Errors affect range too, because a player could still have gotten to a ball, but failed to play it.
2. (Far more important) You can’t catch a ball not hit near you, no matter how good you are. Most especially, if you’re not the catcher, you can’t catch a strikeout. (Conversely, if you are the catcher, you are credited with the putout on most K’s, and the assist on those you have to throw down on because you dropped the third strike.)
3. (Updated) Players that get pinch-hit for or that come in as late-inning substitutions (or get substituted for) are all penalized because they are on the field for fewer outs than a regulation game. Losing before or during the bottom of the 9th also hurts range factors, just as playing extra innings helps. This is because WIS uses the weaker game-based range factor here rather than the more accurate 9-inning range factor.
I believe that WIS attempts to compensate for K rates and errors in their RRF calculation. More subtle issues such as where balls are actually hit is unlikely to be included, and on aggregate is frankly likely to be close enough to give us a useable number since it’s treated the same for all players. I think Range Factor is actually not a great counter for range, and even with compensation I think the effects of strikeouts and spray are far more important drivers of this statistic. There are likely better ways to calculate range, but I doubt many of them are feasible in a SIM that uses players from before there was reliable video. So this is what we have.
In short, a player’s range factor in the SIM may have little to do with their range capabilities in real life. But it is what we are using.
Now that we understand how range is calculated, and we have a number, we are about to use that number to determine how well this player plays in the SIM. Other than the number/grade, I want you to forget everything you just read. It has nothing to do with what we’re going to talk about.
Second: The Event Tree, + Plays, and – Plays
Scenario: (No runners on base) A ball is hit to the shortstop, and the play is presumed to be a ground out (calculated as such at the hitter’s step in the event tree). Now what happens? There are two possibilities.
1) The shortstop has sufficient range to make a play on the ball. He gets to the ball. (At this point, he either makes an error or an out, but we are not concerned with this. The range is no longer relevant.)
2) The shortstop does not have sufficient range and the ball gets through. The batter is credited with a single (most likely) and the shortstop is charged with a “-“ play. The worse the shortstop’s range is, the more likely this is to occur. It’s never a “common” event, as even the worst shortstops (that are actual shortstops) probably only do this once every 5 or so games. But it does happen.
The “-“ play is the negative result generated by bad range. This is the only way for a player to be penalized for bad range (though, to be clear, this can happen on any type of play on which he is involved, not just ground balls.)
Scenario: (No runners on base) A fly ball is hit in the vicinity of the center fielder, but is presumed to drop in front of him and the batter should get a single (calculated as such in the hitter’s step in the event tree.) Now what happens? There are two possibilities with range, and three possible results.
1) The center fielder sees the ball drop for a single. (He may still boot the ball and allow the runner to advance extra bases, but this again, is fielding, not range.)
2a) The center fielder, with his superior range, allows him to grab the ball before it hits the ground. He makes the catch and the batter is out. The center fielder is credited with a “+” play.
2b) The center fielder, with his superior range, allows him to grab the ball before it hits the ground. Unfortunately, due to poor fielding (NOT RANGE) he boots the ball. I do not recall the “official scorer” result in such a circumstances (as to hit vs. error) but the center fielder will be given a “+-“ play. (Note that this result happens with GOOD RANGE.)
The scenario described above is one of two ways to get credited with a “+” play. A player can also get a “+” play by using similar range skills to turn doubles into singles, etc.
All that stuff from the first discussion has nothing to do with what range is in the SIM.
Third: Okay, how is the SIM range factor calculated?
Not a bad question. I'd thought I'd answered this, but it's not quite the same. This time, Range Factor = (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / Innings Played at the Position. The stat is now the more accurate inning-based version rather than the game-based version.
What are the most important factors to determine your players’ range factors? Your k-rates, the ranges of your teammates, and the L/R handedness of your opposing batters.
K-rates: If you strike out more batters, that’s less balls in play for your players to make plays on. Range factors go down (except your catchers’, which go up).
Teammates’ Ranges: If a SS makes a “+” play, that’s an out. That means one play opportunity potentially taken away from the 3B, 2B, and everyone else. Also, a “-“ play keeps more outs on the table – which could just as easily become a strikeout as an out to a different IF/OF. A play opportunity is far from one play per game, but this is going to add up over the course of a season.
L/R handedness of opponents: The SIM assumes all hitters are pull hitters. An all-RH lineup will give your LF more chances than your RF, in aggregate, and vice-versa for an all-LH lineup. Similar patterns apply to the infield, though note that 1B range factors will always look the highest because they get the putout on the vast majority of ground balls hit anywhere.
So what does this mean? In short, you shouldn’t give a second’s thought to your players’ SIM range factors. They mean almost nothing for performance. You really shouldn’t worry about them in real life either, except that’s how the SIM calculates range. If only we had +/- play data... but of course, in real life that’s subjective, and the SIM can only do it with accuracy because it knows how the result happened through its own code.
If you want to see how your player is doing with respect to their range, check their “+” and “-“ play rates. Make sure to compare them to other players, not just see the numbers in isolation, and always consider small sample size and team strikeout rates especially.
12/21/2015 6:52 PM (edited)