This is my third 16x16 league. Tirades notwithstanding, I enjoy the research and strategy needed for these drafts, along with the unconventional rosters that result.
There are three general principles that I always keep in mind in these drafts:
- Everyone will waste around $10M in salary, and the league will play accordingly. A $110M league will play like $100M at best. Your rotation will not consist of vintage Koufax, Clemens and Gooden.
- It’s not wasted salary if you use it. Obviously there are limits to this (a 5.50 ERC# Wright isn’t going to get anyone out, so trying to use him for anything other than mop-up is futile) but don’t be afraid to push the boundaries of your opinion of acceptable quality, especially if doing so enhances your other strategic options.
- Teammate slots are like gold. You only get nine of them. Use them wisely. Anything that frees one up is worth considering.
Now on to the draft. Rostered players are bolded.
Nominated Player –
2002 Chuck Finley (2,414,532)
When I signed up for this league I had a specific third baseman in mind to nominate. Rather than doing so immediately I decided to sleep on it, and when I awoke the next morning both a third baseman and an extra offensive player had been nominated, so I decided to look at starting pitchers. I was searching for someone who had many sub-par seasons for this cap level, and who also had a season that would be usable in relief and bring some good teammates. When I found Finley I stopped my search. His 86 IP of high IP/G, 2.65 ERC# would be perfect in long relief with the occasional spot start. My original thought was that 2.65 ERC# would be about league-average; the way things turned out it might be a bit better than that. When you start running out of teammate slots relievers tend to be the first players to go, so locking in a bullpen arm was attractive. And Finley’s teammates such as Edmonds,
Pujols, Rolen, Renteria and
Isringhausen were all usable at this cap, which gave me the flexibility of knowing that I wouldn’t be scrounging around for a decent teammate late in the draft.
Before I continue with draft strategy, a bit about Chuck Finley and my team name. I was never a big Finley fan; at the time I thought he was good-not-great, and a bit overrated. But modern advanced metrics have been more kind. His career WAR is 57.9, which is excellent. For comparison, Hall of Famers Jack Morris and Catfish Hunter had career WARs of 43.5 and 40.9 respectively. Not a lot of black ink on Finley’s page, but he had a damned good career. As for my team name, I had first heard of Finley Dunne as the name of a bar in Chicago where the Boston College alums used to watch games, and where I watched BC play Virginia Tech in the 2007 ACC football championship game. It turns out that the bar was named after a very interesting Chicago newspaperman, who, among many other things, is credited with coining the term “southpaw” for lefthanded pitchers. For this league especially, this seems highly appropriate. More about Finley Peter Dunne
here.
Round 1 –
1976 Mike Torrez (6,557,554)
It took a grand total of one round for my inevitable comment about self-torture to rear its ugly head. Torrez was the worst of the starting pitchers in this theme, and it was clear that if I didn’t take a cheap one here then one wouldn’t get back to me the following round. The question was whether I wanted a cheap one, or if I was OK with using the one usable Torrez, and, if the latter, whether that one would drop to me in round 2 or beyond. I pretty quickly decided that with the specter of using a $10M-$12M Hornsby in what will play like a $100M league, I was going to go offense-first (as if that was ever in question anyway) and that the caliber of starting pitcher that I’d be able to afford wouldn’t be that much better than Torrez (3.06 ERC#) so there was no need to waste a teammate slot there. But would the one good Torrez have dropped? That’s what tortured me. He probably would have; people tend not to want to take expensive players lose draft positions early on. But in previous drafts I’ve felt like I was too focused on maintaining draft position at the expense of picking the best available player so I was OK with dropping.
I decided that I’d use all 4 (other than Finley) nominated SPs in my rotation, along with Aaron, Ortiz and Hornsby as regulars, and aim to use my 9 teammate slots at SS (Renteria, fail), 3B (Pujols, .315/.393/.547), 2 OF, 4 RP (including Isringhausen, 1.55 ERC#, 0 HR/9+), and one utility spot in case I didn’t get one of the 600+ PA Dickeys or in case something else went wrong. Well, as Meatloaf said, two out of three ain’t bad. I’d love to be able to re-do the draft taking the cheap Torrez to see how that would’ve gone, but life doesn’t work that way.
Round 2 – 1966 Claude Osteen (7,055,156)
I hadn’t envisioned having to take an Osteen this early, but 3 good ones had already been taken and this was one of the few palatable ones (3.10 ERC#) remaining. If you call a .264 OAV# “palatable”. At least he limits HRs (0.19 HR/9+), and HRs will play in this league. So I decided to bite the bullet and continue my slide down the draft order and stay true to my initial strategy. Osteen came with what would be a usable Koufax in any other $110M theme but this one, and an excellent
Phil Regan (117 IP, 1.75 ERC#) who I did roster. Using solely nominated pitchers in the rotation frees up roster spots for relievers. Using 4 teammates in the bullpen, along with Dick Hall and my nominated Finley, promised to give me a deep quality bullpen, which would hopefully make up for my mediocre rotation. Regan was a great first step toward that goal.
Round 3 – 1977 Paul Blair (874,935)
Salary cap management, with a bonus. There was a Blair that was $400K cheaper (which very surprisingly dropped 6 slots to schwarze in round 4) but I went with this one because he teamed with the powerful and versatile
Cliff Johnson (339 PA, .979 OPS#). As I mentioned, teammate slots are like gold. I was planning to try to get one of the two Dickeys that wouldn’t need a backup, so I wouldn’t have to waste a teammate slot on one, but having Cliff in the fold meant that I could take my Dickey much later because now my backup C could also fill in at 1B and OF. I’m looking forward to seeing what Big Cliff can do against all of the homer-prone lefties in this theme.
Round 4 – 1938 Phil Cavarretta (1,213,315)
More salary cap management with a bonus. I had wanted the similarly-priced but more useful ’54 version that went the pick before mine, but I’ll have enough decent pinch-hitters on my bench so I’m not too broken up about it. And in hindsight this worked out better because he came with a very good
Dizzy Dean (80 IP, 1.88 ERC#) to add to my bullpen. I’d be really happy with this pick if not for what happened next.
Round 5 – 1955 Harvey Kuenn (4,396,879)
The pick that launched a massive expletive-ridden tirade, and with good reason. However, rather than railing against the fates, I should’ve directed my ire at myself. This was by far my worst pick in the draft, and likely on a short list of my worst picks in any draft in my lifetime.
The two picks following mine in the 4
th round were cheap Kuenns. Uh oh. I was not planning on using Kuenn and was hoping for a cheap one. Now there was only one left. But then I saw something else: the 1956 Kuenn. .333/.380/.464, B/D- at SS (but not a horrible D-). Hey, that’s about the same quality as the .307/.363/.425 B/C- Renteria I’m planning on using at SS, and frees up a teammate spot to boot! So now I have two Kuenn options; I just have to hope one of them drops 14 spots to my next pick. Actually 13 spots, as calhoop who picked directly before me already had his Kuenn. The first 10 picks come without a Kuenn. I breathe a sigh of relief. The next two are the cheap one and the ’56.
The next cheapest available Kuenn was $1.8M. There were 3 starting SS Kuenns left, all $4M - $5M, all horrible defensively and mediocre offensively. The best one to me was the ’55, .309/.343/.423, C/D. Worse than the Renteria I’m planning on using, but not THAT much worse. If I use Renteria I have to take the cheapest available Kuenn, which means adding $1.8M in albatross salary (plus the $200K difference between the two) and use a teammate spot on Renteria. So, yeah, Renteria was better, but not $2M plus a teammate spot better.
Seems logical. So why was this such a bad pick? Because the ’55 Kuenn is not appreciably better than the ’53 or the ’57. The ’57 was taken in the final round of the draft. The ’53 was not drafted at all. I wasted a 5
th round pick on a bad player who I could’ve gotten for free at the end. Dumbass.
Round 6 – 1925 Rogers Hornsby (12,334,057)
Well that escalated quickly. The second consecutive run to start immediately after my pick of someone else, this one came a round or two earlier than I expected. Apparently I was one of the few who had budgeted $12M for a Hornsby. I was a little surprised at how many people preferred cheap ones. I mean, I get it. $10M-$12M is a lot to spend on one offensive player in what will play as a de facto $100M league. But if you’re going to spend that much, it should be on the best right-handed hitter of all time in a league filled with mediocre lefties.
Besides my general predilection toward offense, I really like drafting offensive teams in this theme in particular because most bullpens are so shallow. With only 9 teammate spots, few teams seem to have more than 3 or 4 decent relievers. If I can build an offense that gets into bullpens early I can exploit shallow bullpens the end of the game, which is why I didn’t mind spending so much on Hornsby. I was glad I got a $12M version, but I think I could’ve made the $16M one work. $20M would’ve been a lot, but there was a brief moment of insanity where I considered taking someone else here and seeing what I could do with the $20M one. I’m glad I didn’t though.
Round 7 – 1962 Whitey Ford (6,395,636)
No runs this round! So I pick a pitcher who will give up a lot of them! <<rimshot>> Thank you. I’ll be here all month because of the lockdown. Try the veal.
Not only do I get the best available Ford (otherwise known as “damning with faint praise”, 3.17 ERC#) but I get one of my favorite
Mickey Mantles (.325/.488/.599). Sure he only has 502 PAs, but the aforementioned Cliff Johnson can take some extras, and I had a plan for any remainder.
Round 8 – 1933 Bill Dickey (5,409,650)
Under normal circumstances I’d say this was a really nice pick. Best available Dickey (.312/.374/.486), 575 PA so if I didn’t want to draft a backup I could get away with him hitting 7
th or 8
th and playing at around 95%, good defensively. However, at this point I was likely to roster a backup C regardless, and paying for an A arm is probably wasted money because hardly anyone in this league is going to be able to run. The somewhat lesser but acceptable and cheaper 1932 version was still there and came with a really nice, reasonably priced Babe Ruth. There was one other OF that I wanted more than Ruth, but there was always a chance that I wouldn’t get him. I went back and forth on this one quite a bit but in the end decided to bite the bullet and take the better player, and take a chance that I’d be able to get the other guy (and his amazingly versatile and awesome teammate). It worked out for me in the end, and this was probably the right place to take my Dickey because the ’32 version went before my next pick.
Round 9 – 1999 Jamey Wright (1,322,965)
This is where I made my “take who I want rather than who I need” post. Because strategically this was not a great pick. There were a ton of similarly priced useless Wrights still available. But there hadn’t been any runs that affected me in the previous round, so I locked in two teammates that I’d targeted since the beginning of the draft. I love this
Larry Walker (.376/.451/.690) even though he only had 513 PAs. But he also comes with one of my favorite players in the sim,
Terry Shumpert (.344/.406/.560 in 304 PAs) who plays 2B, 3B, SS and OF. My Hornsby only had 641 PAs ($12M doesn’t go as far as it used to) so I’d need a backup (and defensive replacement) for him. I was considering using a Bailey at 3B if I needed the cap space and Shumpert could’ve taken any leftover PAs there if necessary, and best of all he’s a great RHH platoon partner for Walker. I was also hoping to get the ’71 or ’73 Aaron at this point so I’d need a few backup PAs there as well, which Shumpert would also provide. My only regret is that Shumpert can only play one position at a time, as he is simultaneously my best defensive 2B, 3B and OF. Alas, The Great One can only do so much.
Round 10 – 2010 David Ortiz (3,906,509)
And here’s where I pay for taking what I want instead of what I need…
To be fair I never really considered taking an Ortiz in the 9
th round, as there were a whopping 6 acceptable versions still available at that time. Of course, all 6 were taken before my next pick. I had really wanted the 2012 version with 383 dominant PAs that were just tailor made to platoon with Clifford the Big Red Johnson. I truly thought that he’d still be there with my 10
th pick. Oh well. I ended up with a lesser version of Ortiz who comes with a good
Daniel Bard (75 IP, 1.95 ERC#) who rounds out the teammate portion of my bullpen, which looks really good except for the fact that somehow while I wasn’t paying attention all of the good Halls had been taken. Where the heck did they all go?
Round 11 – 1955 Dick Hall (2,224,932)
So when njbigwig took a cheap Hall with the pick directly after mine I decided to check out what Halls were remaining. What I saw was not pretty. There was a bad but cheap pitching version (which was taken before my pick), a completely useless and less cheap OF version, a bad 170 IP version which I had absolutely no use for, and the 100 IP, 3.33 ERC#, 6.29 IP/G version that would function as a perfect long reliever. Thankfully I ended up with that one. Not the Hall I envisioned drafting from the outset, but useful enough to be fine.
Round 12 – 1984 Mike Flanagan (4,864,999)
Time to take my 4
th starter. I was getting a little high on innings, and I didn’t want to jettison any of my planned relievers, so I went with the lowest IP version of Flanagan still available who might possibly get someone out (3.58 ERC#). Possibly. He comes with a phenomenal Ripken who I wouldn’t have been able to fit under the cap regardless but definitely couldn’t with the money spent on Kuenn. I felt good about this pick…
Round 13 – 1976 Tom Paciorek (1,828,028)
…but then the Aaron run began. And once again, I was left on the outside looking in. One of the reasons I went with my “use the nominated starting pitchers” strategy was that in past drafts I felt like I focused too much on draft position, and picking near the end of each round would free me from that temptation. But in being near the end of each round of this draft I missed out on several key runs (Aaron, Ortiz, Kuenn). Now, runs don’t necessarily start at the beginning of a round, and I could’ve just as easily missed out on runs regardless of my draft position, but I do wonder. Anyway, the 5 best available Aarons were selected between my last pick and this one, and of the few decent ones left I didn’t have a strong feeling that any one was preferable, so I took a relatively cheap Paciorek who hits well enough to be a decent third pinch hitter.
As an aside, I am completely flabbergasted that the 1981 Paciorek was Mr. Irrelevant in this draft. I know that there are better outfielders out there, but he will absolutely, positively produce in this league. And, stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but teammate slots are like gold. I cannot believe that no one took advantage of the opportunity to use him to free up a teammate slot until the end of the draft. I would’ve predicted he’d be gone by the 6
th or 7
th round; if I had been told he’d be there at 15 I would’ve significantly changed my draft strategy to take advantage of that.
Round 14 – 1964 Bob Bailey (3,650,959)
I have my pick of the remaining Aarons in the final round, and I have some leftover cash, so I take a Bailey who can hit a little, and, sadly, with a C/C at 3B will function as a defensive replacement. You read that right. Oh dear.
Round 15 – 1970 Hank Aaron (5,571,230)
I had planned at the beginning to take Aaron with my last pick. Mid-draft I had hoped I’d be able to pick one a little earlier and get the ’71, but that wasn’t meant to be. This one (.301/.384/.569) is just fine, and whatever PAs his 598 don’t cover will be taken by Shumpert. Oh, and at C+/B- he’s my starting CF. Why do I do this to myself?
Summary
I’d give myself a B at executing my pre-draft strategy. Given that I was using the 4 non-Finley SP nominees in my rotation, I got relatively good ones. My bullpen is deep and strong. My outfield can rake and I got an acceptable Hornsby. I ended up with a worse Aaron and Ortiz than I’d expected, but I’ll chalk that up to bad run-luck rather than bad strategy. Kuenn was the only major blunder.
But how did my team end up? Probably average at best. I knew going in that my starting pitching would be mediocre and my defense would be poor. I was counting on my lineup to make up for that. But I’m not sure it does. A normalized .323/.407/.567 for used players doesn’t strike me as being quite strong enough to compensate for my many other weaknesses (2.87 ERC# and an unrepentant disregard for defense). I’ll be using a strong hitters park to try to get into other people’s bullpens as early as possible and neutralize their advantage there. We’ll see how it goes.
Good luck everyone, and thanks to schwarze for doing his usual phenomenal job of running this.