any guesses as to the value of a promise of 25 minutes and a start to a player with NO playing time preference?

equal to say 200 AP?

5 home visits?

curious what people think it is.

I will post my own thoughts and experiences a little later.

I've felt that a promised start is equal to about 4 or 5 HV

And promised minutes, every 5 minutes promised is just a bit less than a HV. So 10 promised minutes would be a tad less than 1 HV. While 25 minutes would be a tad less than 4 HV.

Combined that would make 25 min and a start equal to roughly 8 HV. I've never tested it tho. Just seems to be in that range to me.

Just from a recent battle, I was ahead very high versus high with just 15 minutes promised (maxed hv & CV). Right before signings start, other school jumped to very high (I assumed they offered start). I then offered a start and pushed other school back down to high. The eventual result was 69% (me) to 31%. Recruit had no playing preference.

So I guess a start is maybe worth around 10-15% advantage, all else being equal. Of course this is guesswork and probably not accurate (maybe even nonsensical?). Lol.

Posted by jimmychino on 4/2/2020 5:17:00 PM (view original):
any guesses as to the value of a promise of 25 minutes and a start to a player with NO playing time preference?

equal to say 200 AP?

5 home visits?

curious what people think it is.

I will post my own thoughts and experiences a little later.

300-360 AP a round of cycle.

does anyone have a sense for how much effort gets you to "very low", "low", "moderate", "high" and "very high" as compared to the team in the lead?

say very low 0-20 percent of leader's total effort
low 20-40 percent
moderate 40-65 percent
high 65-83 percent
very high 83-100 percent

sound about right? I've always seen it as something like that....

Posted by mlitney on 4/2/2020 7:57:00 PM (view original):
Just from a recent battle, I was ahead very high versus high with just 15 minutes promised (maxed hv & CV). Right before signings start, other school jumped to very high (I assumed they offered start). I then offered a start and pushed other school back down to high. The eventual result was 69% (me) to 31%. Recruit had no playing preference.

So I guess a start is maybe worth around 10-15% advantage, all else being equal. Of course this is guesswork and probably not accurate (maybe even nonsensical?). Lol.

i could certainly wrong here, but i would vote for the nonsensical option! :)

the reason is, while i am foggy on a huge amount of 3.0 recruiting stuff, i am pretty confident the promises do an amount of value for a given situation - which can't really be measured in %. i think the general model is:

1) each action is worth a concrete, tangible amount of effort (say, 50 points) - even if this amount might vary by situation (a promise could be impacted by how the recruit views the school, for example - not sure if it does, but perhaps?)

2) when an action is applied, the amount of effort is multiplied by applicable modifiers (prestige and preferences, at a minimum)

3) at this point, there is a concrete # of points for every school involved. i believe the % lead of the leader is calculated over each school, which is then converted to a % chance of winning, for each team.

anyway, that said - the % change of a start varies wildly. in a low effort situation, where its a ship + 50ap for 2 schools, a start will take it from a 50/50 to a 100/0 - so thats 50%. in a 20hv, cv, 1000 ap battle, that start might move the needle perhaps 6% or whatever (just picking a #). so, i think the answer to jimmy's very good question here, would be in the form of # of AP, # of HV, etc

Posted by jimmychino on 4/2/2020 9:00:00 PM (view original):
does anyone have a sense for how much effort gets you to "very low", "low", "moderate", "high" and "very high" as compared to the team in the lead?

say very low 0-20 percent of leader's total effort
low 20-40 percent
moderate 40-65 percent
high 65-83 percent
very high 83-100 percent

sound about right? I've always seen it as something like that....

i have a pretty crappy sense of 3.0 but i would guess 83% overstates the advantage of the leader. my view on that has been shifting - in the beginning, i expected the levels to be not super far apart - and i was shocked how far apart they were. but i think i overshot in my estimate. perhaps you are right. i am thinking you need a 30-40% lead to tip into high - which would translate to 71.4% or 77%, respectively.

Posted by jimmychino on 4/2/2020 5:17:00 PM (view original):
any guesses as to the value of a promise of 25 minutes and a start to a player with NO playing time preference?

equal to say 200 AP?

5 home visits?

curious what people think it is.

I will post my own thoughts and experiences a little later.

I think of everything in terms of HV's.

I put a start at roughly 2.5 HV's and 25 minutes about the same.

So yeah, I think a start and 25 minutes is roughly the equivalent to 5 HV's in a vacuum.

Hmmm. So it seems the concensus is anywhere from 5-10 home visits.

Interesting.

Will revisit this topic after recruiting is over.

I based my assumption on the outcome of what happens when I push down D1 sims. When recruiting begins, if I start targeting a player that sims are chasing as well, what will normally happen is that there cycle my scholarship offer processes, so does the D1 sims. It will list them at very high and me at moderate (obviously I'm capped at moderate, being a D2 school. So its possible I'm very high with them).

But then I'll offer a Start and 15 minutes the next cycle, and the sim will fall all the way to very low and it will effectively kill them off. With that sim still active in that situation, I don't feel like only 4 or 5 visits would kill the sim of completely. That's what makes me feel it's a lil stronger than that. (Also being the fact that I only offer 15 and not 25 min, because I can't fulfill 25 minute promises).

Again, this is the outcome I get when I target a player led by sim IMMEDIATELY only. If it's a couple days into recruiting, it takes a lot more to push the sim down. Because they were ahead earlier and already building up credit.

Sims put on average 25 AP per period and don't use HV's if they are in the lead and aren't battling. You might be running into a SIM that has 6 cycles of AP and a scholarship or roughly 150 AP and a scholarship. By my math thats about 5.5 HVs. If you are putting in more AP and have good preferences, you maybe at 10+ HV's with a scholarship, a start, 15 minutes, and 300 AP after 6 cycles. Typically, how many AP do you put in to "catch up"?

If that was for me TJ, in my example there is no "catchup". I was talking as if recruiting started, and I go directly for a player. So sim is in the same boat, not "ahead". It

I feel like sim averages more or less than 25, depending on their amount of openings. I say that because in two different scenarios, I've taken over a previously sim controlled team, during RS2. And sim has left behind its recruiting statistical info...... a sim team I took over that had 4 openings did exactly what you said..... 25 AP across 4 players. But I've taken over a sim team that had 3 openings, and it had 3 players with 33 AP each. So I believe it all depends on circumstances, personally

ok. Time to revisit this.

Here is the situation.

Battle in D1.

Team A is A+ prestige
Team B is A- prestige
Preferences are basically equal, a slight edge for "wants success" for team A.
No playing time preference.
Signing preference is late.

Recruit is a top ten stud.

Team A puts in exactly 1000 AP and a scholarship offer into player. No promises, home visits, or campus visit.

Team B's efforts unknown.

As it stands, Team A is at "low" interest and Team B is at "very high".

What type of bump would you guess Team A gets after offering 25 minutes and a promised start?

Posted by jimmychino on 4/17/2020 9:30:00 AM (view original):
ok. Time to revisit this.

Here is the situation.

Battle in D1.

Team A is A+ prestige
Team B is A- prestige
Preferences are basically equal, a slight edge for "wants success" for team A.
No playing time preference.
Signing preference is late.

Recruit is a top ten stud.

Team A puts in exactly 1000 AP and a scholarship offer into player. No promises, home visits, or campus visit.

Team B's efforts unknown.

As it stands, Team A is at "low" interest and Team B is at "very high".

What type of bump would you guess Team A gets after offering 25 minutes and a promised start?

Moderate. Team B likely put on 20 HV and a CV and *some* AP but not close to 1000 I think.

What if I told you...

Team A goes to very high
Team B still very high.