Your answers seem to cover my questions as well. Thanks.

Posted by just4me on 4/30/2020 12:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by contrarian23 on 4/30/2020 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Excellent. Thank you.

OK, assuming just4me's descriptions are correct, then it is clear that the Park 1B rating affects overall hits, NOT singles.

For me, the clearest indicator of this being correct is that the 1B modifier on park effects is applied at the beginning of Decision Tree Step 3 and no modifier is applied at the 1B point of the Decision Tree Step 3.

I'm still trying to make sense of this all (even after all these years which says something though I'll leave it to others to judge what that is)
Does this imply that if you played half your games in a stadium with a +2 singles modifier and half your games in a stadium with a 0 singles modifier that assuming identical pitching you'd have a higher BA in the stadium with a +2 and a lower BA in the stadium with a 0 modifier and that conversely your pitchers would have a lower OAV in the 0 stadium and a higher OAV in the +2 stadium?

Posted by combalt on 4/30/2020 5:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 4/30/2020 12:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by contrarian23 on 4/30/2020 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Excellent. Thank you.

OK, assuming just4me's descriptions are correct, then it is clear that the Park 1B rating affects overall hits, NOT singles.

For me, the clearest indicator of this being correct is that the 1B modifier on park effects is applied at the beginning of Decision Tree Step 3 and no modifier is applied at the 1B point of the Decision Tree Step 3.

I'm still trying to make sense of this all (even after all these years which says something though I'll leave it to others to judge what that is)
Does this imply that if you played half your games in a stadium with a +2 singles modifier and half your games in a stadium with a 0 singles modifier that assuming identical pitching you'd have a higher BA in the stadium with a +2 and a lower BA in the stadium with a 0 modifier and that conversely your pitchers would have a lower OAV in the 0 stadium and a higher OAV in the +2 stadium?

Correct

Hey Father, your back, and talking way over my head again. :)

All I can add is Riverfront is very generous in limiting PA and PC. I'm not sure I've ever used Rogers Center.

Hey, good to see you're still active!

Now that I have the data above, I'm working on adding it into the salary spreadsheets to create a ballpark effect field for every player in the vein of # stats. So, essentially, for any player on the sheet, you'll have a ballpark drop down menu and it'll adjust their # stats in the sheet to reflect the average of the bounds above to give a good estimate of how that player would perform against historical league average in each ballpark.

No eta on finishing, or promises that I actually will... but if/when I do, I'll post here somewhere and email it to anyone who wants it.

It is great to have both you and chargingryno back ! Hope you are both well.

Through 82 games

Team	Park	Games	PA	H	HR	3B	2B	XBH	1B
90 Ft from Home	AFCS	82	3049	661	46	37	102	185	476
AFCS Project	AFCS	82	3044	679	54	43	97	194	485
Pythagorean Triples	AFCS	82	3076	705	59	39	101	199	506
She's So Ugly	AFCS	82	3158	784	65	62	116	243	541
SpottieOttie	AFCS	82	3157	733	53	44	102	199	534
The Trouble With Triples	AFCS	82	3058	650	49	34	89	172	478
Three Men on Third	AFCS	82	3113	733	69	41	117	227	506
Triples in AFC	AFCS	82	3132	705	56	48	95	199	506
Born on Third Base	Petco	82	3186	728	32	84	119	235	493
Magda, Zsa Zsa, and Eva	Petco	82	3088	647	39	74	90	203	444
MH Will Prob Trip	Petco	82	3108	655	23	76	90	189	466
Petco Project	Petco	82	3064	649	27	98	96	221	428
Petco's Festival of Triples	Petco	82	3065	629	35	71	96	202	427
Roustabouts@Petco	Petco	82	3059	649	34	83	81	198	451
Run Run Run	Petco	82	3051	629	33	76	83	192	437
Sliding Headfirst Into Third	Petco	82	3097	630	27	67	78	172	458
Totals			49505	10866	701	977	1552	3230	7636
Averages			3094.06	679.13	43.81	61.06	97.00	201.88	477.25
Total AFCS			24787	5650	451	348	819	1618	4032
Average AFCS			3098.375	706.25	56.375	43.5	102.375	202.25	504
Total Petco			24718	5216	250	629	733	1612	3604
Average Petco			3089.75	652	31.25	78.625	91.625	201.5	450.5

Per Plate Appearance

Team	Park	Games	H/PA	HR/PA	3B/PA	2B/PA	XBH/PA	1B/PA
90 Ft from Home	AFCS	82	0.217	0.015	0.012	0.033	0.061	0.156
AFCS Project	AFCS	82	0.223	0.018	0.014	0.032	0.064	0.159
Pythagorean Triples	AFCS	82	0.229	0.019	0.013	0.033	0.065	0.164
She's So Ugly	AFCS	82	0.248	0.021	0.020	0.037	0.077	0.171
SpottieOttie	AFCS	82	0.232	0.017	0.014	0.032	0.063	0.169
The Trouble With Triples	AFCS	82	0.213	0.016	0.011	0.029	0.056	0.156
Three Men on Third	AFCS	82	0.235	0.022	0.013	0.038	0.073	0.163
Triples in AFC	AFCS	82	0.225	0.018	0.015	0.030	0.064	0.162
Born on Third Base	Petco	82	0.228	0.010	0.026	0.037	0.074	0.155
Magda, Zsa Zsa, and Eva	Petco	82	0.210	0.013	0.024	0.029	0.066	0.144
MH Will Prob Trip	Petco	82	0.211	0.007	0.024	0.029	0.061	0.150
Petco Project	Petco	82	0.212	0.009	0.032	0.031	0.072	0.140
Petco's Festival of Triples	Petco	82	0.205	0.011	0.023	0.031	0.066	0.139
Roustabouts@Petco	Petco	82	0.212	0.011	0.027	0.026	0.065	0.147
Run Run Run	Petco	82	0.206	0.011	0.025	0.027	0.063	0.143
Sliding Headfirst Into Third	Petco	82	0.203	0.009	0.022	0.025	0.056	0.148
Totals
Averages			0.219	0.014	0.020	0.031	0.065	0.154
Total AFCS
Average AFCS			0.228	0.018	0.014	0.033	0.065	0.163
Total Petco
Average Petco			0.211	0.010	0.025	0.030	0.065	0.146

Per Hit

Team	Park	Games	HR/H	3B/H	2B/H	XBH/H	1B/H
90 Ft from Home	AFCS	82	0.070	0.056	0.154	0.280	0.720
AFCS Project	AFCS	82	0.080	0.063	0.143	0.286	0.714
Pythagorean Triples	AFCS	82	0.084	0.055	0.143	0.282	0.718
She's So Ugly	AFCS	82	0.083	0.079	0.148	0.310	0.690
SpottieOttie	AFCS	82	0.072	0.060	0.139	0.271	0.729
The Trouble With Triples	AFCS	82	0.075	0.052	0.137	0.265	0.735
Three Men on Third	AFCS	82	0.094	0.056	0.160	0.310	0.690
Triples in AFC	AFCS	82	0.079	0.068	0.135	0.282	0.718
Born on Third Base	Petco	82	0.044	0.115	0.163	0.323	0.677
Magda, Zsa Zsa, and Eva	Petco	82	0.060	0.114	0.139	0.314	0.686
MH Will Prob Trip	Petco	82	0.035	0.116	0.137	0.289	0.711
Petco Project	Petco	82	0.042	0.151	0.148	0.341	0.659
Petco's Festival of Triples	Petco	82	0.056	0.113	0.153	0.321	0.679
Roustabouts@Petco	Petco	82	0.052	0.128	0.125	0.305	0.695
Run Run Run	Petco	82	0.052	0.121	0.132	0.305	0.695
Sliding Headfirst Into Third	Petco	82	0.043	0.106	0.124	0.273	0.727
Totals
Averages			0.064	0.091	0.142	0.297	0.703
Total AFCS
Average AFCS			0.080	0.061	0.145	0.286	0.714
Total Petco
Average Petco			0.048	0.121	0.140	0.309	0.691

schwarze has posted in the league chat a couple of times about his Roger Connor, who has ZERO triples (in Petco) through 82 games. Here are the stats for all the Connors:

Player	Park	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Connor, Roger	Petco	MH Will Prob Trip	82	304	39	79	13	12	2	31	1	39	16	.260	.351	.401	.752
Connor, Roger	AFCS	Three Men on Third	81	313	45	87	19	8	12	42	0	23	14	.278	.336	.505	.841
Connor, Roger	Petco	Petco Project	82	309	36	77	18	8	2	44	0	36	19	.249	.327	.379	.706
Connor, Roger	Petco	Born on Third Base	82	339	39	95	12	8	5	48	5	31	14	.280	.340	.407	.747
Connor, Roger	AFCS	Triples in AFC	82	332	34	84	15	7	5	39	5	18	14	.253	.297	.386	.683
Connor, Roger	AFCS	SpottieOttieTripliscious Angels	82	305	38	73	16	6	6	44	0	32	16	.239	.316	.390	.706
Connor, Roger	Petco	Run! Run! Run!	80	321	44	80	14	6	2	34	0	29	16	.249	.313	.349	.662
Connor, Roger	Petco	ROUSTABOUTS@Petco	82	313	22	71	17	6	1	23	7	18	16	.227	.276	.329	.605
Connor, Roger	AFCS	Pythagorean Triples (AFCS)	82	288	32	82	19	6	15	50	0	30	8	.285	.351	.549	.900
Connor, Roger	Petco	Magda, Zsa Zsa, and Eva? (Petco)	82	311	30	84	20	5	6	38	0	22	15	.270	.322	.424	.746
Connor, Roger	AFCS	She s So Ugly She s a Three-Bagger	82	314	44	90	12	3	15	60	0	23	18	.287	.335	.487	.822
Connor, Roger	Petco	Petco s Festival of Triples	82	305	38	81	13	3	6	36	5	40	8	.266	.352	.387	.739
Connor, Roger	AFCS	AFCS Project	82	294	32	75	15	3	8	45	0	29	17	.255	.322	.408	.730
Connor, Roger	AFCS	The Trouble with Triples	82	309	40	72	8	2	9	34	0	30	13	.233	.305	.359	.664
Connor, Roger	AFCS	90 Ft from Home (AFCS)	82	306	34	65	20	2	6	35	7	17	11	.212	.257	.350	.607
Connor, Roger	Petco	Sliding Headfirst into Third	82	297	26	69	18	0	2	29	0	34	16	.232	.323	.313	.636
Average	Petco		82	312	34	80	16	6	3	35	2	31	15	.254	.326	.374	.699
Average	AFCS		82	308	37	79	16	5	10	44	2	25	14	.255	.315	.429	.744

I think it's interesting that on average Connor has been almost exactly the same in each park, except for a lot more HR in AFCS (and a commensurate increase in SLG and OPS). But H, R, 2B, 3B, AVG, OBP are almost identical across the board.

Through 100 games

Team	Park	Games	PA	H	HR	3B	2B	XBH	1B
90 Ft from Home	AFCS	100	3732	791	58	46	121	225	566
AFCS Project	AFCS	100	3737	843	63	60	116	239	604
Pythagorean Triples	AFCS	100	3754	848	78	47	114	239	609
She's So Ugly	AFCS	100	3846	930	82	73	134	289	641
SpottieOttie	AFCS	100	3855	893	60	50	126	236	657
The Trouble With Triples	AFCS	100	3724	798	63	47	106	216	582
Three Men on Third	AFCS	100	3769	891	79	53	138	270	621
Triples in AFC	AFCS	100	3785	863	67	57	116	240	623
Born on Third Base	Petco	100	3868	878	37	100	141	278	600
Magda, Zsa Zsa, and Eva	Petco	100	3745	784	43	92	106	241	543
MH Will Prob Trip	Petco	100	3749	784	28	89	110	227	557
Petco Project	Petco	100	3741	802	37	113	115	265	537
Petco's Festival of Triples	Petco	100	3714	763	42	90	108	240	523
Roustabouts@Petco	Petco	100	3797	820	42	99	107	248	572
Run Run Run	Petco	100	3700	766	37	94	98	229	537
Sliding Headfirst Into Third	Petco	100	3759	761	34	90	94	218	543
Totals			60275	13215	850	1200	1850	3900	9315
Averages			3767.19	825.94	53.13	75.00	115.63	243.75	582.19
Total AFCS			30202	6857	550	433	971	1954	4903
Average AFCS			3775.25	857.13	68.75	54.125	121.375	244.25	612.9
Total Petco			30073	6358	300	767	879	1946	4412
Average Petco			3759.125	794.75	37.5	95.875	109.875	243.25	551.5

Per Plate Appearance

Team	Park	Games	H/PA	HR/PA	3B/PA	2B/PA	XBH/PA	1B/PA
90 Ft from Home	AFCS	100	0.212	0.016	0.012	0.032	0.060	0.152
AFCS Project	AFCS	100	0.226	0.017	0.016	0.031	0.064	0.162
Pythagorean Triples	AFCS	100	0.226	0.021	0.013	0.030	0.064	0.162
She's So Ugly	AFCS	100	0.242	0.021	0.019	0.035	0.075	0.167
SpottieOttie	AFCS	100	0.232	0.016	0.013	0.033	0.061	0.170
The Trouble With Triples	AFCS	100	0.214	0.017	0.013	0.028	0.058	0.156
Three Men on Third	AFCS	100	0.236	0.021	0.014	0.037	0.072	0.165
Triples in AFC	AFCS	100	0.228	0.018	0.015	0.031	0.063	0.165
Born on Third Base	Petco	100	0.227	0.010	0.026	0.036	0.072	0.155
Magda, Zsa Zsa, and Eva	Petco	100	0.209	0.011	0.025	0.028	0.064	0.145
MH Will Prob Trip	Petco	100	0.209	0.007	0.024	0.029	0.061	0.149
Petco Project	Petco	100	0.214	0.010	0.030	0.031	0.071	0.144
Petco's Festival of Triples	Petco	100	0.205	0.011	0.024	0.029	0.065	0.141
Roustabouts@Petco	Petco	100	0.216	0.011	0.026	0.028	0.065	0.151
Run Run Run	Petco	100	0.207	0.010	0.025	0.026	0.062	0.145
Sliding Headfirst Into Third	Petco	100	0.202	0.009	0.024	0.025	0.058	0.144
Totals
Averages			0.219	0.014	0.020	0.031	0.065	0.154
Total AFCS
Average AFCS			0.227	0.018	0.014	0.032	0.065	0.162
Total Petco
Average Petco			0.211	0.010	0.026	0.029	0.065	0.147

Per Hit

Team	Park	Games	HR/H	3B/H	2B/H	XBH/H	1B/H
90 Ft from Home	AFCS	100	0.073	0.058	0.153	0.284	0.716
AFCS Project	AFCS	100	0.075	0.071	0.138	0.284	0.716
Pythagorean Triples	AFCS	100	0.092	0.055	0.134	0.282	0.718
She's So Ugly	AFCS	100	0.088	0.078	0.144	0.311	0.689
SpottieOttie	AFCS	100	0.067	0.056	0.141	0.264	0.736
The Trouble With Triples	AFCS	100	0.079	0.059	0.133	0.271	0.729
Three Men on Third	AFCS	100	0.089	0.059	0.155	0.303	0.697
Triples in AFC	AFCS	100	0.078	0.066	0.134	0.278	0.722
Born on Third Base	Petco	100	0.042	0.114	0.161	0.317	0.683
Magda, Zsa Zsa, and Eva	Petco	100	0.055	0.117	0.135	0.307	0.693
MH Will Prob Trip	Petco	100	0.036	0.114	0.140	0.290	0.710
Petco Project	Petco	100	0.046	0.141	0.143	0.330	0.670
Petco's Festival of Triples	Petco	100	0.055	0.118	0.142	0.315	0.685
Roustabouts@Petco	Petco	100	0.051	0.121	0.130	0.302	0.698
Run Run Run	Petco	100	0.048	0.123	0.128	0.299	0.701
Sliding Headfirst Into Third	Petco	100	0.045	0.118	0.124	0.286	0.714
Totals
Averages			0.064	0.092	0.140	0.295	0.705
Total AFCS
Average AFCS			0.080	0.063	0.142	0.285	0.715
Total Petco
Average Petco			0.047	0.121	0.138	0.306	0.694

Can’t wait to run the end of season #s through the known modifiers and estimates I posted last page. This would help solidify the estimated ranges on some of the factors for AFC and Petco that aren’t specifically known. But so far just eyeballing it, the hit rates and the HR/H, 3B/H, and 1B/H rates seem to support what I posted previously. Would love to maybe run a similar idea again with some constraints on the pitcher ERAs and maybe two parks that have more similar effects with only one area drastically different.