|
-4 |
-3 |
-2 |
-1 |
0 |
+1 |
+2 |
+3 |
+4 |
1B |
x |
x |
0.908 |
x |
1.000 |
x |
x |
1.182 |
|
2B |
0.795 |
x |
x |
x |
1.000 |
x |
x |
x |
1.291 |
3B |
x |
0.523 |
x |
x |
1.000 |
x |
x |
x |
1.868 |
HR/L |
0.634 |
x |
x |
x |
1.000 |
x |
x |
x |
1.385 |
HR/R |
0.636 |
x |
x |
x |
1.000 |
x |
x |
x |
1.374 |
PF |
|
0.820 |
x |
x |
1.000 |
x |
x |
x |
1.370 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-4 |
-3 |
-2 |
-1 |
0 |
+1 |
+2 |
+3 |
+4 |
1B |
0.816 |
0.862 |
0.908 |
0.954 |
1.000 |
1.046 |
1.092 |
1.138 |
1.184 |
2B |
0.800 |
0.850 |
0.900 |
0.950 |
1.000 |
1.050 |
1.100 |
1.150 |
1.200 |
3B |
0.400 |
0.550 |
0.700 |
0.850 |
1.000 |
1.150 |
1.300 |
1.450 |
1.700 |
HR/L |
0.640 |
0.760 |
0.840 |
0.920 |
1.000 |
1.080 |
1.160 |
1.240 |
1.320 |
HR/R |
0.640 |
0.760 |
0.840 |
0.920 |
1.000 |
1.080 |
1.160 |
1.240 |
1.320 |
PF |
0.800 |
0.850 |
0.900 |
0.950 |
1.000 |
1.050 |
1.100 |
1.150 |
1.200 |
I'm going to use the same example Paul used in his presentation, then add in the modifiers.
2000 Pedro Martinez vs 1923 Babe Ruth:
[H/AB=((AVG*OAV)/Lgavg)/((AVG*OAV)/LgAVG+(1-AVG)*(1-OAV)/(1-LGAVG))
Where, LgAVG=(PLgAVG+BLgAVG)/2]
Thus: H/AB=((.393*.167)/.2791)/((.393*.167)/.2791+(1-.393)*(1-.167)/(1-.2791))
Where, LgAVG=(.283+.276)/2], or .2791
Log5 result = .
2504 This is the expected AVG for Ruth or OAV for Pedro in this matchup including normalization. If they had both been lefties or righties we then would've used the handedness modifier (new result would have been .
2379, but that doesn't apply here). So in this case we apply the hit modifier (1B effect). For Coors that's a multiplier of 1.182, and the new result is
.2959, for a -3 Park, like Petco, our modifier range is .862-.908, so in a worst case, that would be the original .2504*.862, or .
2158. The next step if it is a hit is to determine what type of hit. WIS works backwards and starts with HR. The HR/H rate is calculated the same way as the H/AB but instead of AVG, OAV, LgAVG we use bHR/H, pHR/H, and LHR/H.
Thus: HR/H=((.200*.132)/.0805)/((.200*.132)/.0805+(1-.200)*(1-.132)/(1-.0805))
Where, LgHR/H=(.124+.037)/2], or .0805
Log5 result = .
3027 (roughly 30% of the hits Ruth gets off of Pedro will be HRs. Now, in Coors, this wold be multiplied by the HR/RF (Sim assumes pull for hitter in calculations), so we take the .3027 and multiply the HR modifier of 1.374 to get a park adjusted rate of .
4159 or roughly 41 HR per 100 hits off of Pedro in Coors.
This is HR/H, not HR/AB. The HR/AB for this matchup is simply multiplying the H/AB rate by the HR/H rate. (.2959*.4159) for a HR/AB of .
1230 in Coors. In Petco we'd start with the -3 modifier (which puts us somewhere between .64-.76, so we'll use .7 for our estimate) and multiply the original outcome of .3027 by .7 to get the park adjusted HR/H rate of .
2118 or roughly 21 HR per 100 hits or a (.2158*.2118) .
0457 HR/AB in Petco (12.3 HR/AB in Coors & 4.57 HR/AB in Petco for this particular Batter/Pitcher matchup (7.58 HR/AB in neutral park)).
If it's not a HR, then using a regression from the pitcher ERA and the batters 3B/H and 2B/H, the SIM works to see if it's a + play on defense , or a triple or double the same as the HR above and uses the park effects the same way. Any hits that didn't become HR, + play, 3B, or 2B are singles.
4/30/2020 12:32 PM (edited)