I love Cheick Diallo in the 52. I've found it tough to use him in the ODL without sacrificing other positions, though I was pleasantly surprised he wasn't drafted and I was able to get him in without goin over budget this time around.

Bynum's very good as well, and usually drafted but there's always a few gems that go undrafted in this league from year to year.

After seeing how the division draft shook out and seeing the benches some teams put together, I would certainly like to redo some of the win projections. But I also don't feel like devoting any more energy. Evals here and Savage took it out of me.

Posted by robusk on 6/13/2020 1:01:00 AM (view original):
After seeing how the division draft shook out and seeing the benches some teams put together, I would certainly like to redo some of the win projections. But I also don't feel like devoting any more energy. Evals here and Savage took it out of me.

Thanks for the write ups robusk! Always a fun read and great insights.
I never want my team projected over 44 wins

Posted by ashamael on 6/12/2020 4:33:00 PM (view original):
Now that the league is set, I'll make the following comment(s):

I was real confused that Andrew Bynum wasn't picked. He used to be a consistent fourth round guy. He gave me a great backup, so I'm not complaining, but man... how things have changed.

I was even more confused that Cheick Diallo wasn't picked in the 6th. Maybe people (like me) were more concerned with getting good back-ups to their usg% positions, but man, that dude is a boss at the 3.

I think there were a couple of others I was really surprised about but those were the main two.

It’s not really surprising to me when particular guys go unpicked in this league anymore. It’s partly because of the deepening of the player pool and partly because of changing draft strategy. I think more people have realized that after the first 3 rounds in this league, you generally have to draft for team fit, rather than best player available. Which means some really quality players go undrafted every season.

I added updated win totals based on the benches and the divisions.

Also, every owner in this league is cool and hell and I respect all of you (even redbooda!) so like I just write these up for fun. Don't take it personal. Any one of us can win the championship and I don't know any more than most of the other owners. It is just a write up.

honestly feel like this is the best team I've ever built in this league, and I know why I think that, and the defense isn't that bad, but OK. let's see.

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:28:00 AM (view original):
honestly feel like this is the best team I've ever built in this league, and I know why I think that, and the defense isn't that bad, but OK. let's see.

I dinged you for two primary reasons: minutes and SG/SF defense. But the shooting is really good and the rebounding and assists are solid. I am more than happy to be proven wrong.

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 12:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:28:00 AM (view original):
honestly feel like this is the best team I've ever built in this league, and I know why I think that, and the defense isn't that bad, but OK. let's see.

I dinged you for two primary reasons: minutes and SG/SF defense. But the shooting is really good and the rebounding and assists are solid. I am more than happy to be proven wrong.

I'm scared because you're usually right. Porter has 50 D if he has to defend a point guard. Hardaway can defend any perimeter player. Korver can hide on a low usage guy, but he's 45 which isn't that terrible.

I really don't see the point in having four defensive guys. No team has more than three high usage efficient positions to defend. Why worry about the fifth guy?

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:35:00 AM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 12:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:28:00 AM (view original):
honestly feel like this is the best team I've ever built in this league, and I know why I think that, and the defense isn't that bad, but OK. let's see.

I dinged you for two primary reasons: minutes and SG/SF defense. But the shooting is really good and the rebounding and assists are solid. I am more than happy to be proven wrong.

I'm scared because you're usually right. Porter has 50 D if he has to defend a point guard. Hardaway can defend any perimeter player. Korver can hide on a low usage guy, but he's 45 which isn't that terrible.

I really don't see the point in having four defensive guys. No team has more than three high usage efficient positions to defend. Why worry about the fifth guy?

You only need 3, but you need to make sure between the three of them you can cover all three positions because as you said: " No team has more than three high usage efficient positions to defend " - you just need to make sure you have the position effectiveness for it.

50 and 45 are pretty low for the ODL. The average minutes adjusted team defense is around 69 (adjusting for minutes played by each person so accounting for the bench), so you are putting out two starters that are 25% worse than the average ODL defender.

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 12:40:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:35:00 AM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 12:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:28:00 AM (view original):
honestly feel like this is the best team I've ever built in this league, and I know why I think that, and the defense isn't that bad, but OK. let's see.

I dinged you for two primary reasons: minutes and SG/SF defense. But the shooting is really good and the rebounding and assists are solid. I am more than happy to be proven wrong.

I'm scared because you're usually right. Porter has 50 D if he has to defend a point guard. Hardaway can defend any perimeter player. Korver can hide on a low usage guy, but he's 45 which isn't that terrible.

I really don't see the point in having four defensive guys. No team has more than three high usage efficient positions to defend. Why worry about the fifth guy?

You only need 3, but you need to make sure between the three of them you can cover all three positions because as you said: " No team has more than three high usage efficient positions to defend " - you just need to make sure you have the position effectiveness for it.

50 and 45 are pretty low for the ODL. The average minutes adjusted team defense is around 69 (adjusting for minutes played by each person so accounting for the bench), so you are putting out two starters that are 25% worse than the average ODL defender.

ash won his conference starting Bird, Michael Redd, Deron Williams, Andrew Bogut and........maybe he remembers the fourth starter. Granted, it was a while ago, but I think that team would win its conference today.

It was 87-88 Bird. Not one starter over 72 D. I continue to believe that if the offense is right, the defense is secondary. Besides, 83 D for Penny, 82 D for Kemp and 80 D for Garnett means I have very good defense on at least two of the opposing team's best offensive players. All three will drive up fouls on whoever the other team's best scorers are, Kemp and Penny especially so.

30 wins? Are you sure you really thought about it? It feels like you write these things down based on what you believe, not what owners intended, and then I have to get annoyed because other people run with those assumptions, too.

If there is a high usage point guard, Porter defends 63 at the 2, Korver moves down. Can I think of 23 guys Kyle Korver can defend? You bet. I don't know what weighted defense is but my SL averages 70, and those three play 35-ish minutes each on average. I think my defense is not only fine, but good.

I've been around long enough to see plenty of Pippen teams, plenty of Brand teams, plenty of Wade teams, etc. to know that Jrue Holiday really isn't the answer. I've seen enough Kirk Hinrich and Derek Harper to know that having inefficient/high foul high defense guys doesn't do it.

Because it's Michael Jordan you didn't have to think too hard about it, but what if I told you that you built a perfect fit around Jordan and it matters because Jordan can lead the league in scoring, both per game and per 48? Neither David Robinson nor Conley can do this. I like both of them, but I think sometimes you and ben get lucky/very, very good at trading.

This is why - have you noticed? - Shaq hasn't won an ODL in a long time, and neither has Jordan (until now, unless I'm forgetting). Jordan is very hard to build around, and I'll certainly give you your desserts on that. Shaq is inefficient. People don't realize it, but there are only so many free throw attempts to go around. Having a guy take and miss so many of them will mean that your actual scoring efficiency gets sacrificed. Games are decided by 5 points sometimes. Shaq gives that up all by himself to David Robinson. I could tell you why I think 02-03 is the best Shaq for this and any league, but we've put you and ben on a pedestal and we believe that you always know what you're doing. In reality, you're very good, but you don't always know. That's where I draw the line. Honestly.

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:58:00 AM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 12:40:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:35:00 AM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 12:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 12:28:00 AM (view original):
honestly feel like this is the best team I've ever built in this league, and I know why I think that, and the defense isn't that bad, but OK. let's see.

I dinged you for two primary reasons: minutes and SG/SF defense. But the shooting is really good and the rebounding and assists are solid. I am more than happy to be proven wrong.

I'm scared because you're usually right. Porter has 50 D if he has to defend a point guard. Hardaway can defend any perimeter player. Korver can hide on a low usage guy, but he's 45 which isn't that terrible.

I really don't see the point in having four defensive guys. No team has more than three high usage efficient positions to defend. Why worry about the fifth guy?

You only need 3, but you need to make sure between the three of them you can cover all three positions because as you said: " No team has more than three high usage efficient positions to defend " - you just need to make sure you have the position effectiveness for it.

50 and 45 are pretty low for the ODL. The average minutes adjusted team defense is around 69 (adjusting for minutes played by each person so accounting for the bench), so you are putting out two starters that are 25% worse than the average ODL defender.

ash won his conference starting Bird, Michael Redd, Deron Williams, Andrew Bogut and........maybe he remembers the fourth starter. Granted, it was a while ago, but I think that team would win its conference today.

It was 87-88 Bird. Not one starter over 72 D. I continue to believe that if the offense is right, the defense is secondary. Besides, 83 D for Penny, 82 D for Kemp and 80 D for Garnett means I have very good defense on at least two of the opposing team's best offensive players. All three will drive up fouls on whoever the other team's best scorers are, Kemp and Penny especially so.

30 wins? Are you sure you really thought about it? It feels like you write these things down based on what you believe, not what owners intended, and then I have to get annoyed because other people run with those assumptions, too.

If there is a high usage point guard, Porter defends 63 at the 2, Korver moves down. Can I think of 23 guys Kyle Korver can defend? You bet. I don't know what weighted defense is but my SL averages 70, and those three play 35-ish minutes each on average. I think my defense is not only fine, but good.

I've been around long enough to see plenty of Pippen teams, plenty of Brand teams, plenty of Wade teams, etc. to know that Jrue Holiday really isn't the answer. I've seen enough Kirk Hinrich and Derek Harper to know that having inefficient/high foul high defense guys doesn't do it.

Because it's Michael Jordan you didn't have to think too hard about it, but what if I told you that you built a perfect fit around Jordan and it matters because Jordan can lead the league in scoring, both per game and per 48? Neither David Robinson nor Conley can do this. I like both of them, but I think sometimes you and ben get lucky/very, very good at trading.

This is why - have you noticed? - Shaq hasn't won an ODL in a long time, and neither has Jordan (until now, unless I'm forgetting). Jordan is very hard to build around, and I'll certainly give you your desserts on that. Shaq is inefficient. People don't realize it, but there are only so many free throw attempts to go around. Having a guy take and miss so many of them will mean that your actual scoring efficiency gets sacrificed. Games are decided by 5 points sometimes. Shaq gives that up all by himself to David Robinson. I could tell you why I think 02-03 is the best Shaq for this and any league, but we've put you and ben on a pedestal and we believe that you always know what you're doing. In reality, you're very good, but you don't always know. That's where I draw the line. Honestly.

My personal opinion is that every ODL that occurred prior to somewhere around the 15-16 NBA season is irrelevant. The player pool is dramatically different and any references to eras before that aren't too convincing to me.

Am I sure I thought about the 40 odd paragraphs I wrote for the evals? I am reasonably sure.

In regards to your last four paragraphs:

Don't come at me with GIFs. It gives me the impression that you're under the age of 25, and I know you're not. It's corny, it's disrespectful, and it makes me want to respond. Stop. Don't act like I don't know anything. I've been known to respond to challenges about as well as Marty McFly.

This immature nonsense makes me want to bail. I think you're better than that, unless you're not, in which case you can express yourself as such.

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 1:24:00 AM (view original):
Don't come at me with GIFs. It gives me the impression that you're under the age of 25, and I know you're not. It's corny, it's disrespectful, and it makes me want to respond. Stop. Don't act like I don't know anything. I've been known to respond to challenges about as well as Marty McFly.

Then post something based in reality and not just absurd ramblings that have no statistical evidence behind them.

I truly do like you a lot, but your defenses of things usually have two formulas: 1) unfounded ramblings of a mad man or 2) using a data point of one.

I don't think either ben or I (or ash, or kinoa, or dh or tau or any other of the 20 or so awesome owners) know everything. But I do think a lot of the people mentioned try to form their findings with enough data to support it.

Your unending belief in having discovered the secret that proves you finally cracked the code to the perfect team and the rest of us are idiots is part of your unending charm. I do truly root for your success and I hope I am wrong about your team. I would find more joy in your team doing well than my projections being correct.

And posting a gif is because I honestly cannot find the words to respond to your absolutely inane posts sometimes without coming off like a dick, which I sincerely do not want to do.

I probably like you more than anyone in all of WiS does at this point because I like odd ducks. I don't know why you want to rehash this tired argument.

Well, you did it despite not wanting to.

I don't know how to refer to a "data point" because I'm not really a stats guy. Not like you, probably. If I made an argument as to why I value certain things, try to follow it. You read and write. I don't know which parts you think have no merit.. Yes, I'm a natural contrarian & I suppose I don't make my case the way you do.

Let me throw a simple one at you: Shaq hasn't won this league since ODL 40. You may have statistical points for ADP, wins per draft position, wins by first round pick usage or however you choose to break it down. Great, but I don't see it that way. I look at Shaq and I see (to quote Jonah Hill in Moneyball) an imperfect understanding of where points come from. I am saying that free throw points matter, and I believe I can ballpark the number of FTAs to about 60-80% of real life depending on other factors. I have measured simulated TS% and I have found players with lower FT% to suffer more.

If it's not your way of looking at the numbers, then I apologize, but don't come at me with GIFs when you're just not bothering. Just ignore it. I'll respect you more if you don't respond.