Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 1:41:00 AM (view original):
Well, you did it despite not wanting to.

I don't know how to refer to a "data point" because I'm not really a stats guy. Not like you, probably. If I made an argument as to why I value certain things, try to follow it. You read and write. I don't know which parts you think have no merit.. Yes, I'm a natural contrarian & I suppose I don't make my case the way you do.

Let me throw a simple one at you: Shaq hasn't won this league since ODL 40. You may have statistical points for ADP, wins per draft position, wins by first round pick usage or however you choose to break it down. Great, but I don't see it that way. I look at Shaq and I see (to quote Jonah Hill in Moneyball) an imperfect understanding of where points come from. I am saying that free throw points matter, and I believe I can ballpark the number of FTAs to about 60-80% of real life depending on other factors. I have measured simulated TS% and I have found players with lower FT% to suffer more.

If it's not your way of looking at the numbers, then I apologize, but don't come at me with GIFs when you're just not bothering. Just ignore it. I'll respect you more if you don't respond.

I am not sure what the obsession with Shaq or FTAs really has anything at all to do with my evaluation of your team. You really took this conversation of the rails.

Shaq is really good but he is often drafted at the top of the league and that is usually done by owners who did not do well the season before. ODL championships or wins per player really don't mean anything to me, because the owner who is using that player adds way too much noise to the data.

I don't have any idea what "noise to the data" means.

I was making that point about Shaq because I'm comparing him to Penny and Kemp, and to a lesser extent Jrue Holiday, Derek Harper, and anyone with less than stellar FTA numbers. We look at eFG% first and foremost. I understand it's more relevant than FT%/volume, but I know FT% and volume should be taken into consideration. I'm trying to figure out how much weight I should put on them, given that the SIM doesn't give you all of their real life FTAs. Maybe this is something all of you have figured out without my saying it, but I'm still working on how much the SIM alters TS%.

Does that make more sense?

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 1:48:00 AM (view original):
I don't have any idea what "noise to the data" means.

I was making that point about Shaq because I'm comparing him to Penny and Kemp, and to a lesser extent Jrue Holiday, Derek Harper, and anyone with less than stellar FTA numbers. We look at eFG% first and foremost. I understand it's more relevant than FT%/volume, but I know FT% and volume should be taken into consideration. I'm trying to figure out how much weight I should put on them, given that the SIM doesn't give you all of their real life FTAs. Maybe this is something all of you have figured out without my saying it, but I'm still working on how much the SIM alters TS%.

Does that make more sense?

I basically ignore free throw rate in a cap league personally because I am paying full price for something that is not likely to bear fruit.

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 1:48:00 AM (view original):
I don't have any idea what "noise to the data" means.

I was making that point about Shaq because I'm comparing him to Penny and Kemp, and to a lesser extent Jrue Holiday, Derek Harper, and anyone with less than stellar FTA numbers. We look at eFG% first and foremost. I understand it's more relevant than FT%/volume, but I know FT% and volume should be taken into consideration. I'm trying to figure out how much weight I should put on them, given that the SIM doesn't give you all of their real life FTAs. Maybe this is something all of you have figured out without my saying it, but I'm still working on how much the SIM alters TS%.

Does that make more sense?

Noise in the data means there are things I can't control for in the stats like "player was constantly on teams run by dipshits."

OK, well, I'm trying to be more specific than that. Every point counts.

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 1:55:00 AM (view original):
OK, well, I'm trying to be more specific than that. Every point counts.

You're going an inch wide and a mile deep. It is not going to do you any favors approaching team building that way.

Just watch me destroy Kareem's career winning % this season.

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 2:00:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 1:55:00 AM (view original):
OK, well, I'm trying to be more specific than that. Every point counts.

You're going an inch wide and a mile deep. It is not going to do you any favors approaching team building that way.

ok

Also, just so we're clear, Jeffrey Wright was amazing in Basquiat. I'm still not sold on Westworld yet. seemingly mixed opinions on it

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 2:21:00 AM (view original):
Also, just so we're clear, Jeffrey Wright was amazing in Basquiat. I'm still not sold on Westworld yet. seemingly mixed opinions on it

I have watched all three seasons obsessively and I don't even know if I like it.

what the ****

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 2:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 2:21:00 AM (view original):
Also, just so we're clear, Jeffrey Wright was amazing in Basquiat. I'm still not sold on Westworld yet. seemingly mixed opinions on it

I have watched all three seasons obsessively and I don't even know if I like it.

Season one, to me, was perfection personified in television. Absolutely incredible as a standalone.

Season two was doomed to fall short. Our eyes had been opened to their shenanigans and that feeling that season 1 gave was impossible to re-live because it wasn't new & fresh. I think it also got too complex for its own good. I had to watch episodes multiple times and watch YouTube reviews to piece together the timeline... and a lot of it just felt disappointing after how good season one was. Initially I wasn't crazy about it, and after the season was over, I felt really blah about it. A re-watch prior to season 3 changed my mind somewhat, but overall, I was still not feeling great about the show anymore.

Season three was absolutely fantastic IMO. It was a great bounce back. It was simpler than season two but still maintained layers of subtlety. It still wasn't as great as season one, but it definitely redeemed the series for me. I think they wrapped up some things very nicely, and now for season four I have absolutely no ******* clue where they're going.

Read over the updated evals:
14 teams decrease by a total of 52 games(my team by 2)
8 teams increase by a total of 18
2 teams stay the same
Kobe and I are no mathematicians but we see some low hanging fruit to grab!

Posted by ashamael on 6/14/2020 4:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 6/14/2020 2:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 6/14/2020 2:21:00 AM (view original):
Also, just so we're clear, Jeffrey Wright was amazing in Basquiat. I'm still not sold on Westworld yet. seemingly mixed opinions on it

I have watched all three seasons obsessively and I don't even know if I like it.

Season one, to me, was perfection personified in television. Absolutely incredible as a standalone.

Season two was doomed to fall short. Our eyes had been opened to their shenanigans and that feeling that season 1 gave was impossible to re-live because it wasn't new & fresh. I think it also got too complex for its own good. I had to watch episodes multiple times and watch YouTube reviews to piece together the timeline... and a lot of it just felt disappointing after how good season one was. Initially I wasn't crazy about it, and after the season was over, I felt really blah about it. A re-watch prior to season 3 changed my mind somewhat, but overall, I was still not feeling great about the show anymore.

Season three was absolutely fantastic IMO. It was a great bounce back. It was simpler than season two but still maintained layers of subtlety. It still wasn't as great as season one, but it definitely redeemed the series for me. I think they wrapped up some things very nicely, and now for season four I have absolutely no ******* clue where they're going.

It’s always a combination of plots threads that never go anywhere and plot threads that are overly complex. It is shot and acted beautifully though.

I am here for a Westworld thread though. I have lots of thoughts.