Round 1 Roster Selection Strategies, 2020 Topic

I don't believe the actual results match the normalization calculator. Silver may cost additional $5M worth of errors, $10m tops. While he saves $15-20M in salary and bonuses. i still say my biggest concern is will he perform close to the other studs.

Perhaps someone can do ongoing analysis of Silver vs non-silver teams.
6/8/2020 4:07 PM (edited)
Posted by redcped on 6/8/2020 2:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by skunk206 on 6/8/2020 12:48:00 PM (view original):
IP doesn't matter though. Pitchers fatigue based on pitches thrown. Silver King is allotted about 10250 pitches for a season. If he starts 81 games he can throw about 125 pitches every game at 100% every time. Do that and he uses his pitches for the year and you get your full money's worth. You can make little adjustments throughout the season if he happens to have some CG with less than 125 pitches thrown, but that's less likely at higher caps so managing his usage is easier. You could stretch him even further if you're comfortable with starts less than 100%.
This is an experience level I just am nowhere near. Understanding innings as a season's allotment of pitches just isn't in my math yet. I can certainly see why it would be helpful, but I don't know how to apply the proper variables based on cap, theme, etc.
But my understanding is the salary is priced by innings, not pitches. Let's say you have two similar groups of pitchers that cost the same salary and total the same IP/162 (and because of that, same "effectiveness"):

1) Silver King + 3 scrubs = 800 IP/162
2) 4 200 IP pitchers = 800 IP/162

If King can't actually get his innings that you're being charged for, then Group 1 would be less efficient.
6/8/2020 4:23 PM
Right, but you're not factoring in that King is a great buy relative to comparable pitchers.

Player ERC# $/IP 650 IP
1888 Silver King 1.58 $43,821 $47,394
1909 Christy Mathewson 1.59 $53,017 x
1985 Dwight Gooden 1.92 $44,228 x
1968 Luis Tiant 1.77 $47,505 x



This is rudimentary because there are other factors as well, but it illustrates the point.
6/8/2020 4:38 PM (edited)
Posted by redcped on 6/8/2020 12:38:00 PM (view original):
We are all the poorer for your loss, daddyzander. Maybe next time Google Docs?

As for Silver King, maybe you are like me and don't actually feel you can get all the innings out of him. I certainly started with him, but the few times I've used him I've struggled to get more than maybe 650 innings out of him. I feel like his value starts to diminish when you have to take a bunch of extra innings to make up for what you can't use effectively.
I never considered Silver King. I never get close to using all his innings, so I feel like he is a waste for me. In fact, I rarely use him in leagues with a salary cap (even a high cap like 180M). Props to those who are able to figure out how to maximize his innings.
6/8/2020 4:30 PM
Posted by just4me on 6/8/2020 3:58:00 PM (view original):
Posted by brianjw on 6/8/2020 3:18:00 PM (view original):
My view on Silver King is that in 1888 the average SS in baseball had a .872 fielding percentage.
I don't think everyone realizes the huge swing this can make. From the WISC Normalization Calculator:

1887 D+/A+ SS with 1888 Pitcher and 1888 Hitter: 114 errors
1887 D+/A+ SS with 2008 Pitcher and 1888 Hitter: 87 errors
1887 D+/A+ SS with 2008 Pitcher and 2008 Hitter: 40 errors

This also effects range similarly. Though the calculator does not have a range variant. But anecdotally, I have a season that recently finished with 1919 Roger Peckinpaugh at SS. He finished with 56 errors and 31 + plays. My rotation consisted of two deadballers (Joss and Bernhard) and two modern pitchers (Maddux and Halladay). In a league I'm in that's 113 games in another owner has the same Peckinpaugh in the same ballpark I had him in, but his rotation primarily consists of 1886 Ed Morris and a bunch of guys from the 1960s. Peckinpaugh already has 53 errors and only has 14+ plays, putting him on pace for 76 errors and only 20 + plays.
Wow. This is really informative. Is this based on 890 chances or so?
6/8/2020 4:38 PM
Like redcped, I don't really pay much attention to number of pitches. I know strikeout pitchers get more pitches than non-strikeout pitchers, but I've never dug that deep into this. I base my drafting of pitchers on innings, with more of a feel whether I need more or fewer than 1400. Sometimes I'm off (like drafting 1370 for the 80M theme).
6/8/2020 4:39 PM
Posted by BigScungil on 6/8/2020 4:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by just4me on 6/8/2020 3:58:00 PM (view original):
Posted by brianjw on 6/8/2020 3:18:00 PM (view original):
My view on Silver King is that in 1888 the average SS in baseball had a .872 fielding percentage.
I don't think everyone realizes the huge swing this can make. From the WISC Normalization Calculator:

1887 D+/A+ SS with 1888 Pitcher and 1888 Hitter: 114 errors
1887 D+/A+ SS with 2008 Pitcher and 1888 Hitter: 87 errors
1887 D+/A+ SS with 2008 Pitcher and 2008 Hitter: 40 errors

This also effects range similarly. Though the calculator does not have a range variant. But anecdotally, I have a season that recently finished with 1919 Roger Peckinpaugh at SS. He finished with 56 errors and 31 + plays. My rotation consisted of two deadballers (Joss and Bernhard) and two modern pitchers (Maddux and Halladay). In a league I'm in that's 113 games in another owner has the same Peckinpaugh in the same ballpark I had him in, but his rotation primarily consists of 1886 Ed Morris and a bunch of guys from the 1960s. Peckinpaugh already has 53 errors and only has 14+ plays, putting him on pace for 76 errors and only 20 + plays.
Wow. This is really informative. Is this based on 890 chances or so?
I did 900 chances because I like round numbers for illustrative purposes
6/8/2020 4:43 PM
And that is why I hate deadballers haha.

I drafted a few of them between my teams, but whenever I could avoid it, I did!
6/8/2020 4:58 PM
Posted by brianjw on 6/8/2020 3:18:00 PM (view original):
My view on Silver King is that in 1888 the average SS in baseball had a .872 fielding percentage.
Luckily I've got Tulo and Hanley at SS so I'll be OK, plus Lajoie is B-rated at 2B and I've got, uh, Denny Lyons at 3rd? (gulp)
6/8/2020 5:11 PM
it's a small sample size, but in contrarian’s war of the franchises theme league, we’re 20 games in and my team has committed 28 errors. King has 10 appearances, and my team has committed 21/28 errors in those 10 games. King has given up 43 runs (19 earned).
6/8/2020 5:22 PM
I'd have to go back and look at the old WISC spreadsheets, but I think it comes through in games that King does really badly on unearned runs. Not 100% more unearned than earned like in chargingryno's case, but maybe 50% more.

But I haven't gone back and looked at how A++++ fielders make up for that. I think I stopped using King before I realised how dramatic the difference was between A+ and A++++.
6/8/2020 5:38 PM
Don't mean to be that guy, but we may have a problem here:

Quote post by schwarze on 6/8/2020 4:00:00 PM:

$80M - Frank, Carl & 23 No Names
Ballpark: Comiskey Park I
I don't play in open leagues and rarely play in theme leagues under $100M. I remember taking the salary spreadsheet and modifying it so only the most expensive version of each player remained. Then for pitching, I remember looking at players that fell into a specific $/IP range. I decided to take two 375+ IP horses, preferably who could hit. 1918 Carl Mays crushed it for me in a different league that had just ended, so he was an easy choice. I didn't want to play in Fenway Park, so I needed to grab a pitcher who costs more than $12.994 million and played in a pitcher's park. Although he can't hit like Mays, I welcomed Frank Smith to the team and we will be playing in Comiskey Park I.

$80M: I Drafted for My Ballpark
Stadium: South Side Park

I basically started by checking common OL guys and keeping who worked and finding similar players for the ones who didn't. My offense is similar, though with slightly less pop than a default OL lineup for me. My pitching, however, is nothing like I'd ever voluntarily run on a competitive team. Maybe on an experimental one, but not if I was trying to win. That said, the pitching selections I liked would've all put me in ballparks I would've been wholly uncomfortable with. So, I started looking for players from specific franchises and years to get a ballpark I would be comfortable in. That left me with only 1909 Frank Smith as an option.


We both chose the same player for our most expensive and both chose him more or less for the ballpark... but we have different ballparks, so one of us has the wrong one... I don't think it's me, but I'm open to that possibility.

As best I can tell, The Sox were in South Side in 1909:

Ballpark (Location) Franchise (Years) S Dimensions (feet) Wall Height (ft) Effects Park
Factor
LF LCF CF RCF RF LF CF RF 1B 2B 3B HR LF HR RF
South Side Park (III)
Chicago, IL
Chicago White Sox
1901-1910
G ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? -3 -1 +1 0 0 0.90
Comiskey Park (I)
Chicago, IL
Chicago White Sox
1910-1990
G 347 372 409 372 347 10 18 10 +1 0 +1 -1 -2 0.98

6/8/2020 6:06 PM
Whoops — schwarze, can you send in a support ticket? Should've caught that. My bad
6/8/2020 6:08 PM
$80 Mil - Bernhard & Career Years ... Kinda
With the lower cap and the tight restrictions, I kept the strategy relatively simple: Value, OBP for hitting, WHIP and low HR/9 for pitching. Could not afford much power or speed (Mitchell Page is my leadr in both), and 4 mopup pitchers will make maintaining the pitching staff very interesting. My pitching goal was at least 1400 IP. Bernhard was my obvious choice as my stud SP. Dennis Martinez is responsible for nearly a third of my HR given up in RL.
1421 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 39 HRs
5714 PA's, .297/.391/.431, 84 HRs

$90 Mil - Deadball & No D
Considering the theme involves no fielding, I went for range while maintaining my OBP philosophy. I tend to think that deadball pitching has better value, which is required under this salary cap. I avoided power hitters as much as possible, and picked a ballpark that further suppresses HR's. I added Cangelosi and Moreno just to keep C's honest with the SB potential. The lineup feels like singles and triples will be their thing. I kept HR in LF slightly more even just in case Cravath and Weeks can do some damage vs modern day pitchers. I am just now noticing that with deadball pitching, RP seems to be weaker. We'll see.
1482 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 36 HR's
5961 PA's, .297/.399/.425, 72 HR's

$110 Mil - Hitmen Shift 2
At this cap, I adjusted my hitting strategy just a bit: I went for as much switch-hitters as possible. Seeking only switch-hitters for hitting and my usual picks for P's, I just made a list of possible hitter seasons I liked, and marked what the ideal X would be for a second season. It turned out that X=2 came up more than even X=1, so I went with it. The third SP spot was the toughest to come up with. I am hoping I can use a lesser Mike Scott season for now, and keep his stud season for the second round. 2 stud deadball SP's and mostly modern day RP's. The lineup contains 8 switch-hitters and Eddie collins, meaning more HR potential. My main SB guy is mopup OF Otis Nixon, at least for Season 1. I needed a ballpark to keep hitting down since my IP are lower than ideal. Fortunately, Chipper Jones gave me access to Turner Field.
6128 PA's, .309/.412/.482, 168 HR's
1427 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 48 HR's

$120 Mil - Hitmen ... And Furcal
Well, this theme is basically a handful of studs, then the equivalent of a $70 millon roster. In picking my pitchers, I basically just went with as many IP as I could get, I think. Joss/Toney/Uehara give me 430 of them. Toney may have been because he was the cheapest of the setup guys available as well. I picked Furcal because I generally have a tougher time getting SS anyways, so might as well use my cash on a speed/D guy there. I think I originally had Nap as my stud hitter, but changed my mind when I found a cheap enough Eddie Collins I liked. Cobb fills the CF slot, and allows me to find value hitting at the corner OF's. I'm pretty sure it was here where I realized my C's always suck in the SIM, so I might as well go with a cheap switch-hitter in Schang. Picked a pitcher-friendly ballpark due to the relatively low IP.
5865 PA's, .306/.404/.437, 73 HR's, 5 SB threats on the roster
1403 IP, 0.96 WHIP, 28 HR

$140 Mil – Twin Indian Cubs
This theme, I just made a list of all potential starters for all teams, trying to find at least close to $40 in options. The SP made things easier. The Indians gave me Joss and Bernhard. The Cubs gave me Mordecai and Arrieta. The Twins gave me Walter Johnson. (Once I crunched numbers, Joss and Bernhard were out, Kluber in). The only other real pitching option I liked was Mathewson and Walsh, but the Giants and White Sox really didn't give me any considerable hitting I liked. Checking combinations for the hitting lineup, my trio gave me the best overall blend with Delahanty at 1B, Nap at 2B, Boudreau at SS, Mauer at C, and an OF of Sheckard/Speaker/Hofman. 3B is covered by Steinfeldt, who is ok, and helps get the Cubs salary over $40 million. I'm pretty sure for the bullpen and bench, I only needed to cover salary for the Twins. Nathan/Thielbar/Reboulet/Bush helped clinch my $40 million. The only real speed is on my bench. With no real power to speak of, Target Field was the obvious choice. Hopefully the extra doubles and triples do not tire out my pitching too quick. Riding the line with innings again, with 2 mopup guys. Kluber's HR/9 will be a real test.
6161 PA's, .331/.417/.474, 71 HR's
1445 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 56 HR's

Variable: National Martini Day, #171
My final strategies were: A) Get as many elite hitters with 400-500 PA's as possible, and B) As few SP's as possible, with a ton of RP's. For hitting, I only took 3 full timers (Cobb/Speaker/Wagner) to potentially take the top 3 spots in the lineup. Keeping HR's low helped creating value, and rostered 8 players with between 350-500 PA's to mix and match. The only real HR threat is the 411 PA Ted Williams. Speed is minimal. For SP, Silver King and Walter Johnson gives me over 1000 stud IP. The only other pitchers with RL starts are the 149 IP Kershaw and my mopup guy, Harry Weaver. The innings and quality is fine. My concern is I honestly don't know how to set this rotation without alot of mixing and matching. I might tandem Johnson and Kershaw. I might start King every game for 4-5 IP. I have a little more studying to do before this league starts.
6631 PA's, .354/.439/.555, 163 HR's
1650 IP, 0.82 WHIP, 38 HR
6/8/2020 7:49 PM
$80M – In Our Prime

I concentrated on low-cost, one-hit wonder platoons at most positions but wanted my 2B/SS/CF to be full-time left/switch hitters. Went with Lindor, Vidro, and Abreu, and tried to fill some doubles hitters to take advantage of the ballpark. Lost a few on the redo, as I was one of many who had to make changes due to not selecting the most expensive season (I should have used the utility spot to check them all off the hop!). No real plan on the pitching side, except to improve on Jim Pastorius’ real life 4-20 record (with my track record, a 50-50 endeavour at best). As usual, too many IP’s because I am scared of death spirals. Should lose just enough 1-run games to say “maybe next year will be my year to make the cage”.

$90M – This Aught to be Fun!

Pure speed! I enlisted as much speed as I could. Just two regular fielders not from the deadball era, McGee and Alvarez (for the occasional lucky HR). Went with the new pitchers for the same reason as most others: to combat the deadball hitters. I originally felt like I had way too many IP’s, but after reading many other strategies feel like it may have been a good idea. This team will likely struggle with position fatigue instead. Not confident in this team either, but if they don’t get too tired should at least not be an anchor.

$110 – This Better be the One

I chose +/- 1 simply because it was the easiest to work with. I wish I could give you some fancy statistical explanation but I cannot. I did, however, get to sprinkle in some Blue Jays / Expos content. For those who have watched me suffer in this tournament, you know how I refuse to conform to the “logical” player choices and indeed plan to win some day with my Canadian flavour. With Stieb, Halladay, and El Presidenté, I am pleased that I found a fit for my flair. Even managed to snag Tony Fernandez to man short. Even though I used this theme to snatch up my favourites, I actually like their chances.

$120M – I Regret Ordering the Cobb Salad

Furcal – Seemed logical to me and plenty of others it seems.
Cobb – Never used him before and always wanted to.
Maddux - Probably made the least sense since my other starters are all deadball. Probably should have stuck with a plan.
Kershaw – Seemed like best value.
Kimbrel – They were all elite, just wanted to save some money.
Overall low on AB’s but should have enough IP’s. If I am a tad fatigued somewhere, I will choose hitters over pitchers any day. That being said, if I knew what I was doing, I would not be fatigued in either area…

$140M – Tigers/Indians/Red Sox

I do not feel confident with this team. Probably a great example of how NOT to maximize AB’s. Too much money on the bench. If my 3 and 4 starters hold up, pitching will be ok. I love the Indians bullpen! Tried Cobb again to see if he is worth pursuing next year and wanted to see a different version of him. One positive is that I feel there is enough AB’s and IP’s to avoid any fatigue issues. This should give me a chance against anybody who tried to toe the line but went too far. Maybe I am too hard on myself and they will perform better than I think. Here’s hoping!

Variable Cap - $173M & still need to take turns playing

My favourite to build and quite challenging. Every time I thought I would save money somewhere, I found a way to blow another $5M. I did figure out the 200IP Pedro and paired him with Kershaw for a solid tandem. Probably should have pulled off more tandems to save money, but $173M seemed like plenty to field a good team. I don’t think I will have the offensive force of some other teams, but my pitchers should be lights out.

In the end I should end up close to my pre-tournament ranking. The skill here is just so good, and with only one progressive league for practice in SLB, I never test out players or strategies. I just enjoy the challenge and the banter. Thanks for hosting Mike! Great themes as always…
6/8/2020 8:32 PM
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Round 1 Roster Selection Strategies, 2020 Topic

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