I'm thinking about renaming all my teams to.

HIGH MAINTENANCE MESS

I had 2 teams leading the division. Now they have turned to crap. That makes 6 total crap teams. Yippee! It's OVER!

I have 5 of my 6 teams at 9-12 and I feel that is extremely fitting. Not quite the worst, but consistently mediocre.

I intentionally tested my personal floor for IPs & PAs this WISC. A lot of you guys have lower numbers than me. Idk how you can do it. I have 2 teams WITHOUT a severely fatigued pitching staffs. I'm pretty close to at least 2 death spirals.... I'm almost certain it will happen to 1 of them. Keeping my fingers crossed that I can magically pull out of it.

I have three straight 4-2 cycles...the same teams have won and lost in each cycle.

this is my inaugural effort, and it's going very poorly. so far this has been as much fun as an unanticipated Windows 10 update. i thought i'd be good at this, but most of all my teams' bullpens look like the extras from the Handmaid's Tale, just an ocean of red... that being said, my Munchers were beaten like a red-headed stepchild for the first 10 games, but appear to be finding their footing at this point... I kinda feel like if my starters arms dont fall off... i might finish the season respectably. in my heart of hearts, i know i'm wrong. Next year, you guys and gals better look out, as i'm gonna kick everybody's but!

Posted by milest on 6/15/2020 8:26:00 PM (view original):
I intentionally tested my personal floor for IPs & PAs this WISC. A lot of you guys have lower numbers than me. Idk how you can do it. I have 2 teams WITHOUT a severely fatigued pitching staffs. I'm pretty close to at least 2 death spirals.... I'm almost certain it will happen to 1 of them. Keeping my fingers crossed that I can magically pull out of it.

Fatigue is about so much more then just IPs and PAs, which makes this an extremely tricky and inexact science. First off, the quality of the IP matter (the better the pitchers, the fewer IP you'll need). It also appears that strikeout oriented pitchers are allocated more pitches per inning thrown, but this is somewhat offset by the fact that it takes more pitches for them to get through an inning due to chasing strikeouts. Pitchers who walk a lot of batters are almost never a good idea, as they usually wind up exhausting your bullpen unless you have drafted plenty of innings. Finally, luck plays a fairly big role - if your team starts off with a 1.57 WHIP for 20+ games you're pretty much screwed no matter how many IPs were drafted.

EDIT: I almost forgot - how good your position players are at defense is going to have an impact on how much IP you will need. The better the defense, the fewer innings you'll need.

PAs work a little differently. Paradoxically, the better the offensive numbers the players put up, the more likely they are going to be tired because of racking up more PA. That being said, a major strategy for many WISC owners is to run with low PA and good to great offensive players because the penalty for being slightly fatigued isn't particularly large, and there's no fatigue hell death spiral possible with hitters. Conversely, there's almost no benefit to drafting a large number of PA if the players aren't very good offensively - you might as well have drafted less PA and spent more on pitching.

Posted by d_rock97 on 6/15/2020 12:35:00 PM (view original):
Another cycle, another 3 1-run losses. That puts me at 10-25 in 1-run games. This website is so bullshit

Make that 12-30

The amount of 9th inning blowups is actually insane...

Posted by justinlee_24 on 6/16/2020 11:31:00 AM (view original):

Posted by milest on 6/15/2020 8:26:00 PM (view original):
I intentionally tested my personal floor for IPs & PAs this WISC. A lot of you guys have lower numbers than me. Idk how you can do it. I have 2 teams WITHOUT a severely fatigued pitching staffs. I'm pretty close to at least 2 death spirals.... I'm almost certain it will happen to 1 of them. Keeping my fingers crossed that I can magically pull out of it.

Fatigue is about so much more then just IPs and PAs, which makes this an extremely tricky and inexact science. First off, the quality of the IP matter (the better the pitchers, the fewer IP you'll need). It also appears that strikeout oriented pitchers are allocated more pitches per inning thrown, but this is somewhat offset by the fact that it takes more pitches for them to get through an inning due to chasing strikeouts. Pitchers who walk a lot of batters are almost never a good idea, as they usually wind up exhausting your bullpen unless you have drafted plenty of innings. Finally, luck plays a fairly big role - if your team starts off with a 1.57 WHIP for 20+ games you're pretty much screwed no matter how many IPs were drafted.

EDIT: I almost forgot - how good your position players are at defense is going to have an impact on how much IP you will need. The better the defense, the fewer innings you'll need.

PAs work a little differently. Paradoxically, the better the offensive numbers the players put up, the more likely they are going to be tired because of racking up more PA. That being said, a major strategy for many WISC owners is to run with low PA and good to great offensive players because the penalty for being slightly fatigued isn't particularly large, and there's no fatigue hell death spiral possible with hitters. Conversely, there's almost no benefit to drafting a large number of PA if the players aren't very good offensively - you might as well have drafted less PA and spent more on pitching.

This, plus with pitchers, the effects of fatigue can be mitigated by knowing how fatigue effects each stat in the decision tree. So you can allow certain types of pitchers to pitch fatigued without seeing a drop off in performance, if you've planned accordingly with ballpark, defense, and drafted specific pitchers to allow this.

And hitting fatigue is self-correcting to a large extent. If they do well and rack up lots of PA and fatigue, they start perform worse, thus collecting fewer PA and leveling out. Pitchers do not, pitching fatigue sends into a spiral since the worse a pitcher does the more pitches they throw, the more pitches they throw, the more fatigued they will get. So for pitchers, unless you drafted to be able to control and/or mitigate fatigue, it only gets worse and will not sel-correct.

I confess I don't know how fatigue effects each stat on the decision tree, nor how to mitigate it effectively.

This is one of those deeper areas that certainly can produce more success if you go there, but there's a certain fine line when you can leave the world of playing simulated baseball using real historical seasons to entering the world of playing a computer program and seeing everything as data. I'm not sure I'd last too long if I got into that second world, because part of me still needs to think of that collection of statistics as Sandy Koufax and not as a risk mitigator.

I want to make better drafting and managing decisions, sure, but I need to remember what drew me to sim baseball in the first place is my love of baseball and its history.

Seconded red. All power to the people who love the data, but I don't ever want this to feel like work.

I spend more on pitching than hitting 90% of the time and I usually have 1 of the best staffs in each league on paper... I've just had some bad luck so far in a couple of leagues. '16 Kershaw has an ERA over 8-- and that's him pitching at 100%. '01 Pedro has failed to get through 3 innings on over 70 pitches twice (at 100% both times). Extra inning games early in the season are a pain as well.

Posted by d_rock97 on 6/16/2020 11:48:00 AM (view original):

Posted by d_rock97 on 6/15/2020 12:35:00 PM (view original):
Another cycle, another 3 1-run losses. That puts me at 10-25 in 1-run games. This website is so bullshit

Make that 12-30

The amount of 9th inning blowups is actually insane...

Jtpsops, is that you?

Also I can safely say you don't need to know anything about the decision tree to win this tournament. I've never looked at / read about it.